Jennifer Smith

With one week left of the fantasy regular season and playoffs looming, this is a hard break for Engram, Darkwa, and Shepard owners. Geno Smith under center certainly downgrades everyone and we could even see rookie Davis Webb get snaps. Being against a porous Oakland Raiders lessens the sting a bit, but I would steer clear of all Giants if possible. Wayne Gallman out snapped Orleans Darkwa in Week 12, so the Giants clearly want looks at all their rookies. I can't confidently start any of them.

Give us a player (non tight end) outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.
My pick is Dede Westbrook, currently ranked as FantasyPros #110 flex player for Week 13. With Allen Hurns set to miss another week, Westbrook represents a deeper play that led the Jags in targets (10) last week. Patrick Peterson covered Marquise Lee in Week 12, most likely contributing to the increase in targets for Westbrook. However, Westbrook earned six targets in Week 11 and his snap count increased in Week 12. Between the targets and the snap count, clearly the Jags are looking to get him more involved. The Jags draw the Indianapolis Colts this week, who rank #28 in pass defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Westbrook's play making ability and speed give him plenty of upside, even if his targets bump down a bit. He could be a sleeper for fantasy owners in Week 13.

On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Joe Mixon will disappoint fantasy owners this week, especially if they expect a replay of his performance (or the Steelers defensive performance) from last week. Prior to Week 12, Mixon rushed for fewer than 50 yards the last five games and scored just four touchdowns so far this season. In addition, he topped 50 yards receiving just twice (including Week 12) and caught zero touchdown passes through the air. That amount to more than 10 standard fantasy points just three times in 2017. Pittsburgh rush defense ranks #7 in DVOA and prior to last week's mess of broken coverage, they hadn't given up a rushing TD since Week 5. They also hadn't given up a receiving touchdown to a running back all season until Jamaal Williams. Recency effect on both sides of this contest might lead owners to expect a big game from Mixon. However, expecting a #23 flex fantasy finish is unrealistic. I see the bout ending similar to when they faced each other in Week 7 in which Mixon walked away with below ten fantasy points, in both standard and PPR.

This doesn't come as much of a surprise after McFadden was a healthy scratch for the majority of the season, seeing just one snap in Week 10. The Cowboys plan to continue to use Alfred Morris and Rod Smith in the backfield. Rod Smith actually out-snapped Morris in Week 12, so game script and usage definitely is something to be monitored. Even with McFadden out of the mix, fantasy owners still have a RBBC (and a struggling offense) to decipher.

With Matt Davis set to return in Week 13, I wouldn't invest a bench spot in Eddie Lacy. In Week 11, Davis out snapped Lacy before he exited with a groin injury. Seattle involved Davis in both the early and passing downs and I think they will give him another opportunity once healthy. JD McKissic should see passing down work as well, relegating Eddie Lacy (9% of the snap count when Davis active) and Thomas Rawls (healthy scratch when Davis active) to the bench.

Running for his best YPC since Week 6 (4.7), Martin gained 33 yards on seven carries before exiting with the injury. Jacquizz Rodgers took over for early downs (8 carries for 31 yards), but Peyton Barber received the red zone carries (two TDs on five carries). If Martin misses time, I expect Jacquizz to get the starting nod here, with Barber sprinkled in, and Charles Sims getting his usual 3-4 touches per game. During Martin's suspension weeks 2-4, Rodgers performed solidly.

Crabtree's ejection put the Oakland Raiders in a difficult position, as he represents 17% of their overall target share and plays at least 80% of snaps each week. He most likely won't be suspended for further games, as past precedent (AJ Green/Jalen Ramsey ejected but returned the next week) appears to indicate. Amari Cooper (concussion) also left the game early, leaving Carr to spread passes around. Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson received the largest bump in snap count.

Tevin Coleman gains the most fantasy impacts from news of Devonta Freeman being out again this week. In the games Freeman missed, Coleman received 21 touches. This week, Coleman draws a tasty matchup versus Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense gave up 100+ rushing yards in six games so far this season and eight rushing TDs. Terron Ward becomes a bench stash in deeper fantasy leagues. However, Freeman completed limited practices this week and should pass protocol before Week 13 tilt against Minnesota.