Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
Twitter: @ConsultFantasy
Website: http://gridironexperts.com/
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
New England likes to keep things interesting in the big game. Tom Brady's five Super Bowl victories include a combined margin of victory of just 19 points, and the come-from-behind, overtime win over the Falcons last year actually represents the Patriots biggest win (6 points). If I'm picking a straight-up winner, it's still New England, but the Eagles should be right in this until the end so I'll take Philly and the points.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Under
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 44
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
New England likes to keep things interesting in the big game. Tom Brady's five Super Bowl victories include a combined margin of victory of just 19 points, and the come-from-behind, overtime win over the Falcons last year actually represents the Patriots biggest win (6 points). If I'm picking a straight-up winner, it's still New England, but the Eagles should be right in this until the end so I'll take Philly and the points.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Under
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 44
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Neither team is great defensively, but Kansas City has more weapons on offense and seemed to find a grove again with Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt over the last month. Home field advantage is a big difference-maker for me in this one, and Tennessee's limitations on offense lead me to believe the Chiefs will cover the 8-point spread.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Is it weird to think the once-mighty Falcons offense doesn't have enough fire power to keep pace in this game? Atlanta hasn't topped 24 points since Week 12 and Matt Ryan hasn't had a multi-touchdown game since November 20th. Meanwhile, the Rams were averaging 32.5 points per game in the five contests preceding Week 17's rest-fest, with Jared Goff playing extremely well and Todd Gurley putting up video-game numbers as of late. I look for that trend to continue this weekend, with a comfortable victory for Los Angeles.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Buffalo's return to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years has been a great story... but I think the Bills' stay will be short lived. A matchup of the leagues's best pass defense (JAC) against one of the worst passing offenses (BUF) puts a ton a pressure on Buffalo's running game. And while I think LeSean McCoy will play through his ankle injury, I don't think he can do enough to keep the Bills in this game. On the other side of the ball, however, the Jaguars have seemingly been teeing up Leonard Fournette for this moment, and I think the rookie will run all over the league's 29th-ranked rush defense, which allowed an NFL-high 22 rushing touchdowns in 2017.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
I hate taking the home favorite to cover in all of these games, but here we are. Carolina had a nice home win over Minnesota in December, but otherwise hasn't done much to impress in recent months. The Panthers offense looked bad on Sunday in Atlanta and has produced 10% fewer yards and 15% fewer points away from home this season. The Saints outscored Carolina 65-34 across the teams' two matchups in 2017 and I'm expecting more of the same this weekend.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Neither team is great defensively, but Kansas City has more weapons on offense and seemed to find a grove again with Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt over the last month. Home field advantage is a big difference-maker for me in this one, and Tennessee's limitations on offense lead me to believe the Chiefs will cover the 8-point spread.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Is it weird to think the once-mighty Falcons offense doesn't have enough fire power to keep pace in this game? Atlanta hasn't topped 24 points since Week 12 and Matt Ryan hasn't had a multi-touchdown game since November 20th. Meanwhile, the Rams were averaging 32.5 points per game in the five contests preceding Week 17's rest-fest, with Jared Goff playing extremely well and Todd Gurley putting up video-game numbers as of late. I look for that trend to continue this weekend, with a comfortable victory for Los Angeles.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Buffalo's return to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years has been a great story... but I think the Bills' stay will be short lived. A matchup of the leagues's best pass defense (JAC) against one of the worst passing offenses (BUF) puts a ton a pressure on Buffalo's running game. And while I think LeSean McCoy will play through his ankle injury, I don't think he can do enough to keep the Bills in this game. On the other side of the ball, however, the Jaguars have seemingly been teeing up Leonard Fournette for this moment, and I think the rookie will run all over the league's 29th-ranked rush defense, which allowed an NFL-high 22 rushing touchdowns in 2017.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
I hate taking the home favorite to cover in all of these games, but here we are. Carolina had a nice home win over Minnesota in December, but otherwise hasn't done much to impress in recent months. The Panthers offense looked bad on Sunday in Atlanta and has produced 10% fewer yards and 15% fewer points away from home this season. The Saints outscored Carolina 65-34 across the teams' two matchups in 2017 and I'm expecting more of the same this weekend.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Waiver Wire Rankings Week 15
Give us your thoughts on a waiver wire target (or two) you especially like as a pickup.
There isna??t a ton of stand-alone value on the wire at this point in the season, but if youa??re a Carson Wentz owner in search of a replacement QB, Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a career-high 334 yards passing and gets another favorable matchup this week against Tennessee. Just know that he faces Jacksonville in Week 16, so Garoppolo is likely nothing more than a one-week rental. Rod Smith could also have one-week appeal, after a breakout performance on Sunday and date with Oakland before Ezekiel Elliott returns in Week 16. One of the better rest-of-season option on the wire this week is Dede Westbrook, who has increased his yardage total in each of the last four weeks after making his NFL debut less than a month ago. He has 27 targets over the last three games, leading the Jaguars in that category twice, and posted a 5/81/1 line on Sunday.
For owners renting a D/ST in Week 15, what readily available option (under 40%) should they target and why?
I like New Orleans and Buffalo as solid streaming options in Week 15, with the Saints hosting the Jets and the Bills at home against the Dolphins. Josh McCown and the Jets have had their moments this year, but after generating just 100 total yards of offense on Sunday, perhaps the team we thought New York would be is finally showing up. The Saints have been a top-10 fantasy defense most of the year and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game. With the exception of a bad three-week stretch in November, Buffalo has also been a decent fantasy defense in 2017. The Bills get a mistake-prone Dolphins team that will be coming off a Monday night game, and therea??s a chance of more snow in Buffalo next weekend.
There isna??t a ton of stand-alone value on the wire at this point in the season, but if youa??re a Carson Wentz owner in search of a replacement QB, Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a career-high 334 yards passing and gets another favorable matchup this week against Tennessee. Just know that he faces Jacksonville in Week 16, so Garoppolo is likely nothing more than a one-week rental. Rod Smith could also have one-week appeal, after a breakout performance on Sunday and date with Oakland before Ezekiel Elliott returns in Week 16. One of the better rest-of-season option on the wire this week is Dede Westbrook, who has increased his yardage total in each of the last four weeks after making his NFL debut less than a month ago. He has 27 targets over the last three games, leading the Jaguars in that category twice, and posted a 5/81/1 line on Sunday.
For owners renting a D/ST in Week 15, what readily available option (under 40%) should they target and why?
I like New Orleans and Buffalo as solid streaming options in Week 15, with the Saints hosting the Jets and the Bills at home against the Dolphins. Josh McCown and the Jets have had their moments this year, but after generating just 100 total yards of offense on Sunday, perhaps the team we thought New York would be is finally showing up. The Saints have been a top-10 fantasy defense most of the year and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game. With the exception of a bad three-week stretch in November, Buffalo has also been a decent fantasy defense in 2017. The Bills get a mistake-prone Dolphins team that will be coming off a Monday night game, and therea??s a chance of more snow in Buffalo next weekend.
News Reaction on Philip Rivers (QB - FA) - Philip Rivers limited in Wednesday's practice
If Rivers missed Week 11, it will be the Kellen Clemens show for the Chargers at home against Buffalo. In that scenario, downgrade any fantasy assets in San Diego's passing game. Melvin Gordon would likely see a ton of work against a Bills defense that was just gashed on the ground by New Orleans. The Chargers and Bills defenses would both be in play as streaming options against Clemens and Nathan Peterman.
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News Reaction on Philip Rivers (QB - FA) - Philip Rivers limited in Wednesday's practice
If Rivers missed Week 11, it will be the Kellen Clemens show for the Chargers at home against Buffalo. In that scenario, downgrade any fantasy assets in San Diego's passing game. Melvin Gordon would likely see a ton of work against a Bills defense that was just gashed on the ground by New Orleans. The Chargers and Bills defenses would both be in play as streaming options against Clemens and Nathan Peterman.
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
New England likes to keep things interesting in the big game. Tom Brady's five Super Bowl victories include a combined margin of victory of just 19 points, and the come-from-behind, overtime win over the Falcons last year actually represents the Patriots biggest win (6 points). If I'm picking a straight-up winner, it's still New England, but the Eagles should be right in this until the end so I'll take Philly and the points.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Under
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 44
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
New England likes to keep things interesting in the big game. Tom Brady's five Super Bowl victories include a combined margin of victory of just 19 points, and the come-from-behind, overtime win over the Falcons last year actually represents the Patriots biggest win (6 points). If I'm picking a straight-up winner, it's still New England, but the Eagles should be right in this until the end so I'll take Philly and the points.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Under
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 44
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Neither team is great defensively, but Kansas City has more weapons on offense and seemed to find a grove again with Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt over the last month. Home field advantage is a big difference-maker for me in this one, and Tennessee's limitations on offense lead me to believe the Chiefs will cover the 8-point spread.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Is it weird to think the once-mighty Falcons offense doesn't have enough fire power to keep pace in this game? Atlanta hasn't topped 24 points since Week 12 and Matt Ryan hasn't had a multi-touchdown game since November 20th. Meanwhile, the Rams were averaging 32.5 points per game in the five contests preceding Week 17's rest-fest, with Jared Goff playing extremely well and Todd Gurley putting up video-game numbers as of late. I look for that trend to continue this weekend, with a comfortable victory for Los Angeles.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Buffalo's return to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years has been a great story... but I think the Bills' stay will be short lived. A matchup of the leagues's best pass defense (JAC) against one of the worst passing offenses (BUF) puts a ton a pressure on Buffalo's running game. And while I think LeSean McCoy will play through his ankle injury, I don't think he can do enough to keep the Bills in this game. On the other side of the ball, however, the Jaguars have seemingly been teeing up Leonard Fournette for this moment, and I think the rookie will run all over the league's 29th-ranked rush defense, which allowed an NFL-high 22 rushing touchdowns in 2017.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
I hate taking the home favorite to cover in all of these games, but here we are. Carolina had a nice home win over Minnesota in December, but otherwise hasn't done much to impress in recent months. The Panthers offense looked bad on Sunday in Atlanta and has produced 10% fewer yards and 15% fewer points away from home this season. The Saints outscored Carolina 65-34 across the teams' two matchups in 2017 and I'm expecting more of the same this weekend.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Neither team is great defensively, but Kansas City has more weapons on offense and seemed to find a grove again with Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt over the last month. Home field advantage is a big difference-maker for me in this one, and Tennessee's limitations on offense lead me to believe the Chiefs will cover the 8-point spread.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Is it weird to think the once-mighty Falcons offense doesn't have enough fire power to keep pace in this game? Atlanta hasn't topped 24 points since Week 12 and Matt Ryan hasn't had a multi-touchdown game since November 20th. Meanwhile, the Rams were averaging 32.5 points per game in the five contests preceding Week 17's rest-fest, with Jared Goff playing extremely well and Todd Gurley putting up video-game numbers as of late. I look for that trend to continue this weekend, with a comfortable victory for Los Angeles.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Buffalo's return to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years has been a great story... but I think the Bills' stay will be short lived. A matchup of the leagues's best pass defense (JAC) against one of the worst passing offenses (BUF) puts a ton a pressure on Buffalo's running game. And while I think LeSean McCoy will play through his ankle injury, I don't think he can do enough to keep the Bills in this game. On the other side of the ball, however, the Jaguars have seemingly been teeing up Leonard Fournette for this moment, and I think the rookie will run all over the league's 29th-ranked rush defense, which allowed an NFL-high 22 rushing touchdowns in 2017.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
I hate taking the home favorite to cover in all of these games, but here we are. Carolina had a nice home win over Minnesota in December, but otherwise hasn't done much to impress in recent months. The Panthers offense looked bad on Sunday in Atlanta and has produced 10% fewer yards and 15% fewer points away from home this season. The Saints outscored Carolina 65-34 across the teams' two matchups in 2017 and I'm expecting more of the same this weekend.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Waiver Wire Rankings Week 15
Give us your thoughts on a waiver wire target (or two) you especially like as a pickup.
There isna??t a ton of stand-alone value on the wire at this point in the season, but if youa??re a Carson Wentz owner in search of a replacement QB, Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a career-high 334 yards passing and gets another favorable matchup this week against Tennessee. Just know that he faces Jacksonville in Week 16, so Garoppolo is likely nothing more than a one-week rental. Rod Smith could also have one-week appeal, after a breakout performance on Sunday and date with Oakland before Ezekiel Elliott returns in Week 16. One of the better rest-of-season option on the wire this week is Dede Westbrook, who has increased his yardage total in each of the last four weeks after making his NFL debut less than a month ago. He has 27 targets over the last three games, leading the Jaguars in that category twice, and posted a 5/81/1 line on Sunday.
For owners renting a D/ST in Week 15, what readily available option (under 40%) should they target and why?
I like New Orleans and Buffalo as solid streaming options in Week 15, with the Saints hosting the Jets and the Bills at home against the Dolphins. Josh McCown and the Jets have had their moments this year, but after generating just 100 total yards of offense on Sunday, perhaps the team we thought New York would be is finally showing up. The Saints have been a top-10 fantasy defense most of the year and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game. With the exception of a bad three-week stretch in November, Buffalo has also been a decent fantasy defense in 2017. The Bills get a mistake-prone Dolphins team that will be coming off a Monday night game, and therea??s a chance of more snow in Buffalo next weekend.
There isna??t a ton of stand-alone value on the wire at this point in the season, but if youa??re a Carson Wentz owner in search of a replacement QB, Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a career-high 334 yards passing and gets another favorable matchup this week against Tennessee. Just know that he faces Jacksonville in Week 16, so Garoppolo is likely nothing more than a one-week rental. Rod Smith could also have one-week appeal, after a breakout performance on Sunday and date with Oakland before Ezekiel Elliott returns in Week 16. One of the better rest-of-season option on the wire this week is Dede Westbrook, who has increased his yardage total in each of the last four weeks after making his NFL debut less than a month ago. He has 27 targets over the last three games, leading the Jaguars in that category twice, and posted a 5/81/1 line on Sunday.
For owners renting a D/ST in Week 15, what readily available option (under 40%) should they target and why?
I like New Orleans and Buffalo as solid streaming options in Week 15, with the Saints hosting the Jets and the Bills at home against the Dolphins. Josh McCown and the Jets have had their moments this year, but after generating just 100 total yards of offense on Sunday, perhaps the team we thought New York would be is finally showing up. The Saints have been a top-10 fantasy defense most of the year and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game. With the exception of a bad three-week stretch in November, Buffalo has also been a decent fantasy defense in 2017. The Bills get a mistake-prone Dolphins team that will be coming off a Monday night game, and therea??s a chance of more snow in Buffalo next weekend.
Go to the Fantasy Accuracy Reports to see how this expert stacks up.
