Jamie Calandro
RotoBaller
Twitter: @jac3600
Website: https://www.rotoballer.com/
Players to Avoid
Who is the one hitter inside the top 30 in hitter ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
J.D. Martinez strikes me as a tad overdrafted this year. Sure, he had a second half for the ages after he was traded to Arizona last summer, but there has to be some regression coming. His .387 ISO is unsustainable given his career .230 mark, and his walk rate looked like an outlier as well. More importantly, J.D. has only played over 120 games once in his entire career, and there was clearly concern with his physical even after Boston announced they would sign him.
Who is the one starting pitcher inside the top 20 in pitcher ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
It's not that I don't want Clayton Kershaw (really), but I was unwilling to pay a first-round price tag for him BEFORE all of his back issues, and now that it's cropping up in multiple years there is no way I will own him on my teams. Kershaw's numbers are sparkling, but his K/9 has ever so slightly gone down over the last two years, and he allowed 1.18 HR/9 last season (a career high). If Kershaw winds up falling far enough in the draft I'll take the plunge, but I'd much rather take an elite hitter first and wait a round for Kluber or Strasburg.
J.D. Martinez strikes me as a tad overdrafted this year. Sure, he had a second half for the ages after he was traded to Arizona last summer, but there has to be some regression coming. His .387 ISO is unsustainable given his career .230 mark, and his walk rate looked like an outlier as well. More importantly, J.D. has only played over 120 games once in his entire career, and there was clearly concern with his physical even after Boston announced they would sign him.
Who is the one starting pitcher inside the top 20 in pitcher ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
It's not that I don't want Clayton Kershaw (really), but I was unwilling to pay a first-round price tag for him BEFORE all of his back issues, and now that it's cropping up in multiple years there is no way I will own him on my teams. Kershaw's numbers are sparkling, but his K/9 has ever so slightly gone down over the last two years, and he allowed 1.18 HR/9 last season (a career high). If Kershaw winds up falling far enough in the draft I'll take the plunge, but I'd much rather take an elite hitter first and wait a round for Kluber or Strasburg.
Featured Pros: MLB Bounce-Back Candidates
Name one hitter you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
Manny Machado still had a fine season last year, but did not live up to his first round ADP expectations. After posting a .370 wOBA and 6.6 WAR in 2015 and a .366 wOBA and 6.9 WAR in 2016, Machado dipped to a .328/2.8 mark in 2017. However, his HR totals and ISO were right in line, and his walk rate rose 0.3% while his K rate dropped 0.5%. He also stole nine bases after not swiping one the previous year, and oh yeah, he's in a contract year in what figures to be the biggest free agent bonanza ever. His second round ADP is a steal.
Name one pitcher you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
This may be the Yankee fan in me hoping, but there are some signs that Masahiro Tanaka has a chance to resurrect his disastrous 2017 season. While his 1.77 HR/9 was majorly concerning, his 3.44 xFIP shows that bad luck was a contributing factor to his 4.74 ERA, and his K/9 rose dramatically from a 7.44 to a 9.77 mark. While chasing wins is a fool's errand, you have to figure his chances of racking them up with this potent Yankees offense is high, and you're getting Tanaka at a discount.
Manny Machado still had a fine season last year, but did not live up to his first round ADP expectations. After posting a .370 wOBA and 6.6 WAR in 2015 and a .366 wOBA and 6.9 WAR in 2016, Machado dipped to a .328/2.8 mark in 2017. However, his HR totals and ISO were right in line, and his walk rate rose 0.3% while his K rate dropped 0.5%. He also stole nine bases after not swiping one the previous year, and oh yeah, he's in a contract year in what figures to be the biggest free agent bonanza ever. His second round ADP is a steal.
Name one pitcher you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
This may be the Yankee fan in me hoping, but there are some signs that Masahiro Tanaka has a chance to resurrect his disastrous 2017 season. While his 1.77 HR/9 was majorly concerning, his 3.44 xFIP shows that bad luck was a contributing factor to his 4.74 ERA, and his K/9 rose dramatically from a 7.44 to a 9.77 mark. While chasing wins is a fool's errand, you have to figure his chances of racking them up with this potent Yankees offense is high, and you're getting Tanaka at a discount.
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Players to Avoid
Who is the one hitter inside the top 30 in hitter ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
J.D. Martinez strikes me as a tad overdrafted this year. Sure, he had a second half for the ages after he was traded to Arizona last summer, but there has to be some regression coming. His .387 ISO is unsustainable given his career .230 mark, and his walk rate looked like an outlier as well. More importantly, J.D. has only played over 120 games once in his entire career, and there was clearly concern with his physical even after Boston announced they would sign him.
Who is the one starting pitcher inside the top 20 in pitcher ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
It's not that I don't want Clayton Kershaw (really), but I was unwilling to pay a first-round price tag for him BEFORE all of his back issues, and now that it's cropping up in multiple years there is no way I will own him on my teams. Kershaw's numbers are sparkling, but his K/9 has ever so slightly gone down over the last two years, and he allowed 1.18 HR/9 last season (a career high). If Kershaw winds up falling far enough in the draft I'll take the plunge, but I'd much rather take an elite hitter first and wait a round for Kluber or Strasburg.
J.D. Martinez strikes me as a tad overdrafted this year. Sure, he had a second half for the ages after he was traded to Arizona last summer, but there has to be some regression coming. His .387 ISO is unsustainable given his career .230 mark, and his walk rate looked like an outlier as well. More importantly, J.D. has only played over 120 games once in his entire career, and there was clearly concern with his physical even after Boston announced they would sign him.
Who is the one starting pitcher inside the top 20 in pitcher ADP you are avoiding the most and why?
It's not that I don't want Clayton Kershaw (really), but I was unwilling to pay a first-round price tag for him BEFORE all of his back issues, and now that it's cropping up in multiple years there is no way I will own him on my teams. Kershaw's numbers are sparkling, but his K/9 has ever so slightly gone down over the last two years, and he allowed 1.18 HR/9 last season (a career high). If Kershaw winds up falling far enough in the draft I'll take the plunge, but I'd much rather take an elite hitter first and wait a round for Kluber or Strasburg.
Featured Pros: MLB Bounce-Back Candidates
Name one hitter you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
Manny Machado still had a fine season last year, but did not live up to his first round ADP expectations. After posting a .370 wOBA and 6.6 WAR in 2015 and a .366 wOBA and 6.9 WAR in 2016, Machado dipped to a .328/2.8 mark in 2017. However, his HR totals and ISO were right in line, and his walk rate rose 0.3% while his K rate dropped 0.5%. He also stole nine bases after not swiping one the previous year, and oh yeah, he's in a contract year in what figures to be the biggest free agent bonanza ever. His second round ADP is a steal.
Name one pitcher you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
This may be the Yankee fan in me hoping, but there are some signs that Masahiro Tanaka has a chance to resurrect his disastrous 2017 season. While his 1.77 HR/9 was majorly concerning, his 3.44 xFIP shows that bad luck was a contributing factor to his 4.74 ERA, and his K/9 rose dramatically from a 7.44 to a 9.77 mark. While chasing wins is a fool's errand, you have to figure his chances of racking them up with this potent Yankees offense is high, and you're getting Tanaka at a discount.
Manny Machado still had a fine season last year, but did not live up to his first round ADP expectations. After posting a .370 wOBA and 6.6 WAR in 2015 and a .366 wOBA and 6.9 WAR in 2016, Machado dipped to a .328/2.8 mark in 2017. However, his HR totals and ISO were right in line, and his walk rate rose 0.3% while his K rate dropped 0.5%. He also stole nine bases after not swiping one the previous year, and oh yeah, he's in a contract year in what figures to be the biggest free agent bonanza ever. His second round ADP is a steal.
Name one pitcher you expect to have a bounce-back season after disappointing fantasy owners in 2017
This may be the Yankee fan in me hoping, but there are some signs that Masahiro Tanaka has a chance to resurrect his disastrous 2017 season. While his 1.77 HR/9 was majorly concerning, his 3.44 xFIP shows that bad luck was a contributing factor to his 4.74 ERA, and his K/9 rose dramatically from a 7.44 to a 9.77 mark. While chasing wins is a fool's errand, you have to figure his chances of racking them up with this potent Yankees offense is high, and you're getting Tanaka at a discount.
Go to the Fantasy Accuracy Reports to see how this expert stacks up.
