Derek Brown
FantasyPros
Twitter: @dbro_ffb
Website: https://www.fantasypros.com/
Player Note on Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB - WAS)
Chris Rodriguez is a touchdown-dependent flex again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 11, he has averaged 12.3 touches and 59.3 total yards as Washington's backfield leader. During that span, he has had 64.2% of the running back red zone carries. Rodriguez has only two targets, one reception, and six receiving yards this season, so if you're playing him, just understand that he offers nothing through the air. He has been quite good as a rusher, though. Among 57 qualifying rushers, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants remain a horrendous run defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez is dealing with a groin issue. He had limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable.Â
Player Note on Jake Ferguson (TE - DAL)
Jake Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 42.6 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second amongst tight ends in red zone targets with 21, while also seeing four deep targets. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road matchup that Ferguson could exploit this week. Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Ferguson is dealing with a calf injury. He didn't practice on Thursday, but he had limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. If you're depending on Ferguson this week, make sure you have a backup plan at tight end. With this game not kicking off until Sunday night, you might be left picking up Pat Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith as an emergency play.Â
Player Note on Brady Cook (QB - NYJ)
Last week, Brady Cook looked like a rookie backup thrust into action, completing 46.7% of his passes with 5.4 yards per attempt, two interceptions, zero passing touchdowns, and a 23.3% off-target throw rate. Cook will start for the Jets this week with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields hurt. I don't expect Cook to have more luck this week as a basement-level QB 2. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. During that span, Jacksonville has also had the 11th-best pressure rate.
Player Note on Adonai Mitchell (WR - NYJ)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, Mitchell had a 14.2 aDOT with a 17.6% target share, 24 receiving yards, and a 14.8% first-read share. I don't have much faith in Mitchell this week despite drawing a nice matchup on the perimeter. I don't trust Cook to get the ball to Mitchell consistently. If you are forced to consider Mitchell as a flex play this week, I get it, but outside of pure desperation mode, I'm not playing Mitchell this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Parker Washington (WR - JAC)
Parker Washington missed last week's game with a hip injury. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable and could be back in uniform this week. In Weeks 11-12, with Jakobi Meyers playing a full-time role for Jacksonville, Washington finished as the WR66 and WR12 in weekly scoring, drawing a 17.3% target share with 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. I expect Washington to move into a full-time slot role this week with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers operating on the perimeter. In those two games, Washington had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Washington is only a deep league flex play this week. Since Week 10, New York has held slot receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest passer rating when targeted.
Player Note on Breece Hall (RB - NYJ)
Breece Hall is a volume-based RB2 in a rough spot this week. Hall is the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 17.8 touches and 91.3 total yards per game this season. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate. Hall could see 15-20 touches this week, but he might not sniff the endzone with Brady Cook directing the offense. The Jags have also not been kind to backs this season. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on John Metchie III (WR - NYJ)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, John Metchie had a 23.5% target share, a team-leading 29.6% first-read share, and two red zone targets. Sadly, he turned that volume into only four receptions and 34 receiving yards. I can't trust Metchie as a flex play this week with Cook slinging the rock despite the plus matchup. If you're out of other flex options this week in a deep league, I get it, but there's no way you can feel warm and cozy about playing him. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Zonovan Knight (RB - ARI)
Zonovan Knight will be Arizona's early down hammer this week. Since Week 6, Knight has been the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.2 touches and 50.9 total yards. He has been a touchdown-dependent flex and remains that this week. He could easily get game scripted out this week if Houston jumps out to an early lead. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Luther Burden III (WR - CHI)
Since Week 12, Luther Burden has had a 54.7% route share with a 16% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 2.28 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has had one red zone target and zero deep targets. Burden had weekly scoring finishes of WR36, WR44, and WR25. Burden is a middling flex play again this week. The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.
Player Note on Emari Demercado (RB - ARI)
Emari Demercado practiced on a limited basis all week (ankle) and has been listed as questionable. I'm expecting Demercado to reclaim his role as the team's passing-down back this week. In Weeks 9-10, Demercado played 40.6% of the snaps with 11 touches and 91 total yards per game. He had a 30.8% route share and a 6.6% target share. Demercado is only a low-end flex play in deeper leagues with a horrible matchup. Houston has ranked 18th in yards per reception allowed to running backs while also holding the position to the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB - WAS)
Chris Rodriguez is a touchdown-dependent flex again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 11, he has averaged 12.3 touches and 59.3 total yards as Washington's backfield leader. During that span, he has had 64.2% of the running back red zone carries. Rodriguez has only two targets, one reception, and six receiving yards this season, so if you're playing him, just understand that he offers nothing through the air. He has been quite good as a rusher, though. Among 57 qualifying rushers, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants remain a horrendous run defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez is dealing with a groin issue. He had limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable.Â
Player Note on Jake Ferguson (TE - DAL)
Jake Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 42.6 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second amongst tight ends in red zone targets with 21, while also seeing four deep targets. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road matchup that Ferguson could exploit this week. Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Ferguson is dealing with a calf injury. He didn't practice on Thursday, but he had limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. If you're depending on Ferguson this week, make sure you have a backup plan at tight end. With this game not kicking off until Sunday night, you might be left picking up Pat Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith as an emergency play.Â
Player Note on Brady Cook (QB - NYJ)
Last week, Brady Cook looked like a rookie backup thrust into action, completing 46.7% of his passes with 5.4 yards per attempt, two interceptions, zero passing touchdowns, and a 23.3% off-target throw rate. Cook will start for the Jets this week with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields hurt. I don't expect Cook to have more luck this week as a basement-level QB 2. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. During that span, Jacksonville has also had the 11th-best pressure rate.
Player Note on Adonai Mitchell (WR - NYJ)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, Mitchell had a 14.2 aDOT with a 17.6% target share, 24 receiving yards, and a 14.8% first-read share. I don't have much faith in Mitchell this week despite drawing a nice matchup on the perimeter. I don't trust Cook to get the ball to Mitchell consistently. If you are forced to consider Mitchell as a flex play this week, I get it, but outside of pure desperation mode, I'm not playing Mitchell this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Parker Washington (WR - JAC)
Parker Washington missed last week's game with a hip injury. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable and could be back in uniform this week. In Weeks 11-12, with Jakobi Meyers playing a full-time role for Jacksonville, Washington finished as the WR66 and WR12 in weekly scoring, drawing a 17.3% target share with 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. I expect Washington to move into a full-time slot role this week with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers operating on the perimeter. In those two games, Washington had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Washington is only a deep league flex play this week. Since Week 10, New York has held slot receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest passer rating when targeted.
Player Note on Breece Hall (RB - NYJ)
Breece Hall is a volume-based RB2 in a rough spot this week. Hall is the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 17.8 touches and 91.3 total yards per game this season. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate. Hall could see 15-20 touches this week, but he might not sniff the endzone with Brady Cook directing the offense. The Jags have also not been kind to backs this season. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on John Metchie III (WR - NYJ)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, John Metchie had a 23.5% target share, a team-leading 29.6% first-read share, and two red zone targets. Sadly, he turned that volume into only four receptions and 34 receiving yards. I can't trust Metchie as a flex play this week with Cook slinging the rock despite the plus matchup. If you're out of other flex options this week in a deep league, I get it, but there's no way you can feel warm and cozy about playing him. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Zonovan Knight (RB - ARI)
Zonovan Knight will be Arizona's early down hammer this week. Since Week 6, Knight has been the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.2 touches and 50.9 total yards. He has been a touchdown-dependent flex and remains that this week. He could easily get game scripted out this week if Houston jumps out to an early lead. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Luther Burden III (WR - CHI)
Since Week 12, Luther Burden has had a 54.7% route share with a 16% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 2.28 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has had one red zone target and zero deep targets. Burden had weekly scoring finishes of WR36, WR44, and WR25. Burden is a middling flex play again this week. The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.
Player Note on Emari Demercado (RB - ARI)
Emari Demercado practiced on a limited basis all week (ankle) and has been listed as questionable. I'm expecting Demercado to reclaim his role as the team's passing-down back this week. In Weeks 9-10, Demercado played 40.6% of the snaps with 11 touches and 91 total yards per game. He had a 30.8% route share and a 6.6% target share. Demercado is only a low-end flex play in deeper leagues with a horrible matchup. Houston has ranked 18th in yards per reception allowed to running backs while also holding the position to the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
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