Derek Brown

Taylor Jr. should lead the San Francisco backfield in touches this week. In Week 14, with Guerendo banged up, in the fourth quarter, Taylor Jr. played 58% of the snaps while logging an 80% snap rate in the red zone. I'm not worried about Ke'Shawn Vaughn and company eating into Taylor Jr.'s workload this week. Taylor Jr.'s yards after contact per attempt (2.14) this season doesn't inspire a ton of hope for upside, but his career mark in that category (2.70) with 82 career carries does help to ease some fears of two yards and a cloud of dust all day when he gets handed the ball. Taylor Jr. should have 15-17 opportunities this week with a lock on the red zone opportunities. He has a nice rushing matchup to chew on this week. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. With that type of volume, and if he adds a touchdown to the boxscore this week, he'll likely hover around RB2 status for Week 16.

Since Week 9, Mahomes has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking (among 38 qualifying quarterbacks) ninth in passing yards per game, sixth in passing touchdowns, 17th in passer rating, and 24th in CPOE. Mahome is better viewed as a fringe QB1 or strong QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.

With Alvin Kamara out, Miller should be the team's workhorse this week. Last week, in the fourth quarter, with Kamara out, Miller played 88% of the snaps while seeing all the team's red zone snaps. Jamaal Williams should work in some, but overall, this should be Miller's backfield this week. Miller only has 28 carries this season, but he has been impressive with his touches, logging a 7.1% explosive run rate, a 36% missed tackle rate, and 2.96 yards after contact per attempt. Mille faces what has been an improved Packer's run defense. He should see enough volume this week to put him in the RB2 conversation, but with the bad matchup and concerning quarterback play and offensive environment, Miller could be an RB3 this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Smith (knee) practiced in full all week and doesn't have an injury designation this week. Smith is the QB17 in fantasy points per game and hasn't finished as a QB1 since Week 9. He hasn't managed better than QB20 in any game over the last five weeks. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying passers, Smith has ranked 28th in passing yards per game, 14th in yards per attempt, 26th in passing touchdowns (three), and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith is a QB2 again this week. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns, the third-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points via passing.

Ertz has been limited in practice all week. He remains in the concussion protocol. I'll update his status on Saturday. We'll see if he can get cleared for this week, but I'm not optimistic right now.

Pollard didn't practice any this week (ankle). He has been listed as questionable and is expected to play this week. We could see Pollard limited some this week and not in his customary workload as the team's workhorse. It's also possible that he does see his usual stranglehold on touches. The Titans have had no issues managing his practice load during the week and loading him up with touches during the weekend. The fact that he aggravated this injury in last week's game leads me to believe it's more likely a split backfield and looks close to how the work was divided up in Week 10. In that game, Pollard had 13 touches and 63 total yards while playing 53% of the snaps. He handled 56% of the rushing play snaps and 52% of the passing down snaps, and he and Tyjae Spears split the red zone snaps 50/50. Pollard should be projected for 12-15 touches this week, with some upside for more. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the tenth-highest missed tackle rate.

In the five games Pittman has played with Josh Downs in the lineup and Anthony Richardson under center, he has handled a 22.2% target share and 26.4% first-read share while producing 1.60 YPRR and 43.8 receiving yards per game. In those five games, he has surpassed 60 receiving yards twice and had two red zone targets (zero touchdowns). Pittman could turn in a nice showing this week if his health complies as the Tennessee secondary has been giving to outside receivers in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts.

Since Week 5, Tracy Jr. has been the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.5 touches and 84.5 total yards per game. Among 61 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. ranks 22nd in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, he has another nasty matchup this week on the ground. Since Week 10, Atlanta has kept backs running into brick walls, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate. Tracy Jr. has an ankle injury. He was limited all week in practice and has been listed as questionable. If you have him, picking up Devin Singletary off the wire is a wise move.