Derek Brown
FantasyPros
Twitter: @dbro_ffb
Website: https://www.fantasypros.com/
Player Note on Joe Flacco (QB - IND)
Anthony Richardson has been ruled out. Flacco will start for Indy's regular season finale. In Flacco's five starts this season, he has one top-12 finish in weekly scoring. Outside of that game, he has surpassed QB17 in weekly fantasy scoring only once. This season, among 45 qualifying passers, Flacco ranks 18th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. He has been a decent QB2, but anyone expecting last year's magic from Flacco is barking up the wrong tree. Flacco is a QB2 again this week, facing a Jacksonville pass defense that has played better football over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-fewest yards per attempt and the 14th-lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback.
Player Note on Brian Robinson Jr. (RB - WAS)
Last week, Robinson played 54% of the snaps with 15 touches and 69 total yards. I could see Washington splitting the backfield work three ways this week, with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez getting run late. Sit Robinson unless you have no other choice this week. He could be sitting on the bench in the second half of this week's game.
Player Note on Alexander Mattison (RB - LV)
Mattison will operate this week as the team's workhorse back. In Mattison's five starts this season, he has averaged 19.4 touches and 69.8 total yards. He has been a volume-based fantasy play this season. His per-touch efficiency remains horrid, with an 11% missed tackle rate and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt. Mattison is a nice flex play this week. His volume could play up this week as the Chargers' putrid run defense could aid his efficiency. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Marvin Mims Jr. (WR - DEN)
Mims has become a more integral part of the Denver passing attack, with 47% of the snaps played in back-to-back games and with 100-yard receiving outings in two of his last four games (three scores). The Chiefs have the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (61.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Mims has had a 14.2% target share, a 37% TPRR, a team-leading 27.8% of the receiving yardage, 4.78 YPRR, and a 21.8% first-read share. Mims' numbers against two high have been outstanding. Since Week 12, Kansas City has been tough against perimeter wide receivers (seventh-fewest PPR points per target), but Mims could overcome the bad matchup this week.
Player Note on Jaylen Waddle (WR - MIA)
With Tyler Huntley starting, Waddle has had a 20.3% target share, 1.22 YPRR (31 receiving yards per game), and a 23.2% first-read share. He never finished with more than 46 receiving yards or higher than WR47 in weekly scoring, with Huntley tossing him passes. Waddle has been a consistent third option in the target pecking order this season. It's a leap of faith to ask Huntley to support any more than possibly two pass-catching options in a game. Sit Waddle.
Player Note on Rome Odunze (WR - CHI)
Odunze missed practices (illness) until he managed a full session on Friday. He doesn't carry an injury designation into Week 18. Since Week 11, he has been the WR53 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers. Since Week 11, he has had a 19.4% target share, a 35.4% air-yard share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. Odunze likely has another quiet week against the Packers. Sit him this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on DK Metcalf (WR - SEA)
Metcalf hasn't been the same player since returning from a two-game hiatus in Week 11. Since Week 11, he has been the WR45 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, 1.70 YPRR (53 receiving yards per game), and a 29% first-read share. Across his last seven games played, he has one top-24 fantasy finish in weekly scoring and only two red zone targets. Maybe Metcalf has a massive bounce-back game in Week 18 against the Rams' backups, but unless I can help it, I don't want to depend upon him in fantasy this week. Sitting him could burn you this week, but there's a case to be made for not playing him this week, depending on your options. The production has been that bad.
Player Note on DJ Moore (WR - CHI)
Since Week 11, Moore has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 26% target share with 1.75 YPRR and a 34% first-read share. He has drawn two end-zone targets while averaging 68.9 receiving yards per game. Moore is a volume-based WR3 this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Travis Etienne Jr. (RB - JAC)
Over the last two games, Etienne has had a 49% snap rate overall, a 48% snap rate with rushing downs, and a 50% snap rate in the red zone. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 56 total yards. Etienne has become a boring flex play that is best left on the bench. He has a nice matchup this week, but it's worth wondering if he will see the volume to take advantage of it. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Player Note on Tank Bigsby (RB - JAC)
Over the last two games, Bigsby has played 35% of the snaps overall, 52% of the rushing play snaps, and had a 50% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. He has averaged 12 touches and 42 total yards. This backfield has become a headache weekly with no one really having much fantasy value. Bigsby is a middling flex again this week. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Player Note on Joe Flacco (QB - IND)
Anthony Richardson has been ruled out. Flacco will start for Indy's regular season finale. In Flacco's five starts this season, he has one top-12 finish in weekly scoring. Outside of that game, he has surpassed QB17 in weekly fantasy scoring only once. This season, among 45 qualifying passers, Flacco ranks 18th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. He has been a decent QB2, but anyone expecting last year's magic from Flacco is barking up the wrong tree. Flacco is a QB2 again this week, facing a Jacksonville pass defense that has played better football over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-fewest yards per attempt and the 14th-lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback.
Player Note on Brian Robinson Jr. (RB - WAS)
Last week, Robinson played 54% of the snaps with 15 touches and 69 total yards. I could see Washington splitting the backfield work three ways this week, with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez getting run late. Sit Robinson unless you have no other choice this week. He could be sitting on the bench in the second half of this week's game.
Player Note on Alexander Mattison (RB - LV)
Mattison will operate this week as the team's workhorse back. In Mattison's five starts this season, he has averaged 19.4 touches and 69.8 total yards. He has been a volume-based fantasy play this season. His per-touch efficiency remains horrid, with an 11% missed tackle rate and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt. Mattison is a nice flex play this week. His volume could play up this week as the Chargers' putrid run defense could aid his efficiency. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Marvin Mims Jr. (WR - DEN)
Mims has become a more integral part of the Denver passing attack, with 47% of the snaps played in back-to-back games and with 100-yard receiving outings in two of his last four games (three scores). The Chiefs have the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (61.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Mims has had a 14.2% target share, a 37% TPRR, a team-leading 27.8% of the receiving yardage, 4.78 YPRR, and a 21.8% first-read share. Mims' numbers against two high have been outstanding. Since Week 12, Kansas City has been tough against perimeter wide receivers (seventh-fewest PPR points per target), but Mims could overcome the bad matchup this week.
Player Note on Jaylen Waddle (WR - MIA)
With Tyler Huntley starting, Waddle has had a 20.3% target share, 1.22 YPRR (31 receiving yards per game), and a 23.2% first-read share. He never finished with more than 46 receiving yards or higher than WR47 in weekly scoring, with Huntley tossing him passes. Waddle has been a consistent third option in the target pecking order this season. It's a leap of faith to ask Huntley to support any more than possibly two pass-catching options in a game. Sit Waddle.
Player Note on Rome Odunze (WR - CHI)
Odunze missed practices (illness) until he managed a full session on Friday. He doesn't carry an injury designation into Week 18. Since Week 11, he has been the WR53 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers. Since Week 11, he has had a 19.4% target share, a 35.4% air-yard share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. Odunze likely has another quiet week against the Packers. Sit him this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on DK Metcalf (WR - SEA)
Metcalf hasn't been the same player since returning from a two-game hiatus in Week 11. Since Week 11, he has been the WR45 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, 1.70 YPRR (53 receiving yards per game), and a 29% first-read share. Across his last seven games played, he has one top-24 fantasy finish in weekly scoring and only two red zone targets. Maybe Metcalf has a massive bounce-back game in Week 18 against the Rams' backups, but unless I can help it, I don't want to depend upon him in fantasy this week. Sitting him could burn you this week, but there's a case to be made for not playing him this week, depending on your options. The production has been that bad.
Player Note on DJ Moore (WR - CHI)
Since Week 11, Moore has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 26% target share with 1.75 YPRR and a 34% first-read share. He has drawn two end-zone targets while averaging 68.9 receiving yards per game. Moore is a volume-based WR3 this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Travis Etienne Jr. (RB - JAC)
Over the last two games, Etienne has had a 49% snap rate overall, a 48% snap rate with rushing downs, and a 50% snap rate in the red zone. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 56 total yards. Etienne has become a boring flex play that is best left on the bench. He has a nice matchup this week, but it's worth wondering if he will see the volume to take advantage of it. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Player Note on Tank Bigsby (RB - JAC)
Over the last two games, Bigsby has played 35% of the snaps overall, 52% of the rushing play snaps, and had a 50% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. He has averaged 12 touches and 42 total yards. This backfield has become a headache weekly with no one really having much fantasy value. Bigsby is a middling flex again this week. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
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