Derek Brown
FantasyPros
Twitter: @dbro_ffb
Website: https://www.fantasypros.com/
Player Note on Rashod Bateman (WR - BAL)
Bateman is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring (WR19, WR35, WR2, WR12). He has a 14.9% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He is third on the team in end-zone targets (four). The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Bateman ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target share, first in YPRR (2.79), and second in first-read share (15.9%). Bateman could lead the way against the Bolts' pass defense this week. Despite it being a tough matchup, Bateman's efficiency and talent could overcome the matchup. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. Bateman popped up on the injury report on Friday with a knee issue that forced him to miss practice. He practiced in full on Saturday and isn't listed with an injury designation for Week 12. He should be good to go.
Player Note on Ladd McConkey (WR - LAC)
McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, with WR3 or higher weekly finishes in five of his last seven games. He has a 22.2% target share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, he has four red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, McConkey leads the team with a 21.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR and a stellar 25% first-read share. He should roast a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. McConkey didn't practice on Thursday (shoulder), but he did manage limited practice sessions on Friday and Saturday. This hopefully puts him on track to play this week. He has been listed as questionable.
Player Note on Adam Thielen (WR - CAR)
Thielen has practiced on a limited basis all week (hamstring). Dave Canales has stated that he will play this week, but the question is how much. I don't feel comfortable plugging Thielen into any lineup, even with the number of teams on bye this week. It's not only a question of role and effectiveness, but it's also a question of playing time.
Player Note on Ameer Abdullah (RB - LV)
With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White each listed as doubtful, Abdullah should be the team's main back this week. Dylan Laube will likely factor in but likely play a supporting role. Last week, Abdullah played 34% of the snaps and finished with four touches and 17 total yards. Over the last two seasons, across 32 carries and 36 receptions, he hasn't put up impressive stats, with only 2.37 yards after contact per attempt and 0.80 YPRR. Abdullah is a volume-driven and touchdown-dependent flex. Denver has shut down backs since Week 6; they have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the tenth-lowest rushing success rate.
Player Note on Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)
Everyone has choices to make in life. Some good and well, some not so good. We'll file the New England Patriots coaching staff's decision not to shadow Puka Nacua with Christian Gonzalez last week under not-so-good. In Week 5, Christian Gonzalez followed Tyreek Hill on 78% of his routes, limiting him to four receptions and 59 scoreless receiving yards. We'll see if they let Gonzalez shadow him or allow Hill to destroy them this week. That's also assuming that Gonzalez is active this week. He popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hip issue and has been listed as questionable. If Gonzalez is out, Hill could be off to the races. Since Tagovailoa's return, Hill has had a 20% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. He has four end-zone targets across his last four games. If you have Hill, you're starting him weekly in nearly every instance. Since Week 6, New England has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Kareem Hunt (RB - KC)
Since Week 6, Hunt has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 90 total yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. With his efficiency lacking, when Pacheco does factor into this backfield heavily, it will definitely hurt Hunt's fantasy value. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 14th-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - TB)
In two of Mayfield's last three starts, he has finished lower than QB16 for the week. He's played well, considering the weapons he's had at his disposal. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in CPOE. Mayfield should post a solid QB2 stat line this week against a burnable Giants' secondary. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback.
Player Note on Dallas Goedert (TE - PHI)
Godert has remained a steady option despite Philly's run-heavy offense. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has at least 10.5 PPR points in four of his last five games. Goedert has a 17.9% target share, has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game, has 2.32 YPRR, and has a 21.1% first-read share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranks eighth in separation and sixth in route win rate. He should be a strong TE1 again this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With DeVonta Smith ruled out, the passing tree gets more consolidated. Hurts could hyper-target A.J. Brown and Goedert this week, as both have plus matchups.
Player Note on Noah Fant (TE - SEA)
Fant has been listed as questionable (groin). He didn't practice on Wednesday but then was upgraded to a limited practice on Thursday and a full session on Friday. Fant should be back this week. Fant isn't in streaming consideration this week. He has only managed a 10% target share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 12.0% first-read share with one end-zone target. Arizona has limited tight ends to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards per reception, and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.
Player Note on Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR - SF)
Samuel has finished as a WR2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in four of his nine games played this season. Samuel has an 18.5% target share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. He is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), in the eight games Samuel has played at least 62.7% of the snaps, he has had a 19% TPRR and 1.94 YPRR against two high. The 49ers should look to feature Samuel's dynamic run after the catch ability this week against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate per reception and the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. Among 56 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranks second in yards after the catch per reception and 15th in missed tackles forced per reception. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target, but Samuel's unique skillset and run-after-the-catch ability can overcome a tough matchup. With Brandon Allen at the helm this week, the 49ers could lean more on Samuel's rushing ability and easy yards after the catch ability.
Player Note on Rashod Bateman (WR - BAL)
Bateman is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring (WR19, WR35, WR2, WR12). He has a 14.9% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He is third on the team in end-zone targets (four). The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Bateman ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target share, first in YPRR (2.79), and second in first-read share (15.9%). Bateman could lead the way against the Bolts' pass defense this week. Despite it being a tough matchup, Bateman's efficiency and talent could overcome the matchup. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. Bateman popped up on the injury report on Friday with a knee issue that forced him to miss practice. He practiced in full on Saturday and isn't listed with an injury designation for Week 12. He should be good to go.
Player Note on Ladd McConkey (WR - LAC)
McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, with WR3 or higher weekly finishes in five of his last seven games. He has a 22.2% target share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, he has four red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, McConkey leads the team with a 21.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR and a stellar 25% first-read share. He should roast a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. McConkey didn't practice on Thursday (shoulder), but he did manage limited practice sessions on Friday and Saturday. This hopefully puts him on track to play this week. He has been listed as questionable.
Player Note on Adam Thielen (WR - CAR)
Thielen has practiced on a limited basis all week (hamstring). Dave Canales has stated that he will play this week, but the question is how much. I don't feel comfortable plugging Thielen into any lineup, even with the number of teams on bye this week. It's not only a question of role and effectiveness, but it's also a question of playing time.
Player Note on Ameer Abdullah (RB - LV)
With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White each listed as doubtful, Abdullah should be the team's main back this week. Dylan Laube will likely factor in but likely play a supporting role. Last week, Abdullah played 34% of the snaps and finished with four touches and 17 total yards. Over the last two seasons, across 32 carries and 36 receptions, he hasn't put up impressive stats, with only 2.37 yards after contact per attempt and 0.80 YPRR. Abdullah is a volume-driven and touchdown-dependent flex. Denver has shut down backs since Week 6; they have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the tenth-lowest rushing success rate.
Player Note on Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)
Everyone has choices to make in life. Some good and well, some not so good. We'll file the New England Patriots coaching staff's decision not to shadow Puka Nacua with Christian Gonzalez last week under not-so-good. In Week 5, Christian Gonzalez followed Tyreek Hill on 78% of his routes, limiting him to four receptions and 59 scoreless receiving yards. We'll see if they let Gonzalez shadow him or allow Hill to destroy them this week. That's also assuming that Gonzalez is active this week. He popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hip issue and has been listed as questionable. If Gonzalez is out, Hill could be off to the races. Since Tagovailoa's return, Hill has had a 20% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. He has four end-zone targets across his last four games. If you have Hill, you're starting him weekly in nearly every instance. Since Week 6, New England has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Player Note on Kareem Hunt (RB - KC)
Since Week 6, Hunt has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 90 total yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. With his efficiency lacking, when Pacheco does factor into this backfield heavily, it will definitely hurt Hunt's fantasy value. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 14th-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - TB)
In two of Mayfield's last three starts, he has finished lower than QB16 for the week. He's played well, considering the weapons he's had at his disposal. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in CPOE. Mayfield should post a solid QB2 stat line this week against a burnable Giants' secondary. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback.
Player Note on Dallas Goedert (TE - PHI)
Godert has remained a steady option despite Philly's run-heavy offense. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has at least 10.5 PPR points in four of his last five games. Goedert has a 17.9% target share, has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game, has 2.32 YPRR, and has a 21.1% first-read share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranks eighth in separation and sixth in route win rate. He should be a strong TE1 again this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With DeVonta Smith ruled out, the passing tree gets more consolidated. Hurts could hyper-target A.J. Brown and Goedert this week, as both have plus matchups.
Player Note on Noah Fant (TE - SEA)
Fant has been listed as questionable (groin). He didn't practice on Wednesday but then was upgraded to a limited practice on Thursday and a full session on Friday. Fant should be back this week. Fant isn't in streaming consideration this week. He has only managed a 10% target share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 12.0% first-read share with one end-zone target. Arizona has limited tight ends to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game, the 11th-lowest yards per reception, and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.
Player Note on Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR - SF)
Samuel has finished as a WR2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in four of his nine games played this season. Samuel has an 18.5% target share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. He is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), in the eight games Samuel has played at least 62.7% of the snaps, he has had a 19% TPRR and 1.94 YPRR against two high. The 49ers should look to feature Samuel's dynamic run after the catch ability this week against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate per reception and the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. Among 56 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranks second in yards after the catch per reception and 15th in missed tackles forced per reception. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target, but Samuel's unique skillset and run-after-the-catch ability can overcome a tough matchup. With Brandon Allen at the helm this week, the 49ers could lean more on Samuel's rushing ability and easy yards after the catch ability.
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