Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Wide Receivers (2026)

It’s easy to dream on young wide receivers, especially those with first-round draft capital who’ve flashed their potential. Sadly, the two following wide receivers have significant bust potential at their respective average draft positions (ADPs) in half-point per reception (half-PPR) formats.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts

Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) | ADP: 37.7 (WR15)

The Panthers should be ecstatic about pulling the trigger on Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth pick in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He had a stellar rookie season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 91 wideouts with at least 250 routes in the regular season and playoffs, McMillan was sixth in route participation rate (89.6%), third in air yards share (42.4%), 16th in target share (22.5%), 14th in first-read rate (28.5%), tied for 10th in receiving yardage market share (30.7%), tied for 24th in yards per route run (1.94 Y/RR), and 13th in first downs per route run (0.107).

T-Mac was unquestionably an alpha. He had fantastic underlying data. Having said that, what did it amount to in fantasy football? The big-bodied wideout tallied 4.2 receptions per game, 60.8 receiving yards per game, seven receiving touchdowns, 10.4 half-PPR points per game, and 12.6 expected half-PPR points per game. T-Mac was only the WR21 in half-PPR points per game out of that sample of 91 wide receivers, and he was the WR20 in expected half-PPR points per game.

T-Mac is saddled by a lousy environment. According to RotoViz’s pace app, in Dave Canales’s two years as Carolina’s head coach, the Panthers are tied for 24th in situation-neutral pass rate (53%) and dead last in plays per 60 minutes (60). Carolina was also 29th in pass rate over expectation (-4.0% PROE) in 2025.

Frankly, I can’t fault Canales for slowing the game down and leaning on the running game when he can. Per SumerSports, among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in 2025, Bryce Young was 32nd in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.03), sandwiched between Tyler Shough (-0.02), Kirk Cousins (-0.02) and Tyrod Taylor (-0.05).

In addition, according to Pro Football Reference, Young has made 45 career starts, including the playoffs, clearing 200 passing yards only 16 times (35.6%) and besting 300 three times (6.7%). He’s also thrown multiple touchdowns only 13 times (28.9%). Furthermore, Young has surpassed 200 passing yards and thrown multiple touchdowns in only nine career games (20%). Young could take a step forward in his fourth year, but barring an unexpected breakout, he caps T-Mac’s ceiling.

McMillan also benefited from lousy target competition for much of last year. Jalen Coker missed the first six weeks in 2025, and he didn’t immediately hit the ground running. In Carolina’s final five games after their Week 14 bye, T-Mac had the following numbers:

87.6% route participation rate
12.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
38.6% air yards share
19.4% target share
0.19 targets per route run (TPRR)
28.4% first-read rate
3.6 receptions per game
53.8 receiving yards per game
1.74 Y/RR
1 receiving touchdown
0.090 first downs per route run
8.2 half-PPR points per game
10.3 expected half-PPR points per game

Coker actually outproduced T-Mac in many categories during that period, and the organization inked him to an extension in the offseason. I’m not suggesting Coker is a better player than McMillan. Still, he is a thorn in T-Mac’s side, though, namely in a run-heavy offense. T-Mac is an unfortunate victim of circumstances and a Young-fueled bust risk.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) | ADP: 74.0 (WR30)

Brian Thomas Jr. had an electrifying rookie campaign. He finished as the WR4 in half-PPR points (240.5) and was tied for the WR11 in half-PPR points per game (14.1) among those who played at least eight games in 2024. There was excitement in the air for BTJ’s sophomore season, and he faceplanted.

Thomas was the WR43 in half-PPR points (114.8) and the WR43 in half-PPR points per game (8.2) among those who played at least eight games in 2025. In his defense, he dealt with a wrist injury. Nevertheless, the falloff between his rookie and sophomore season was stark, and he has quality target competition this year.

It’s also disconcerting how much better BTJ played with Mac Jones than with Trevor Lawrence in 2024. Jones played over 70% of Jacksonville’s snaps in eight games. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Thomas tallied 16 half-PPR points per game and 17.6 expected half-PPR points per game when Jones played the majority of the game. In the nine games that Lawrence played the majority of the snaps in 2024, BTJ recorded 12.5 half-PPR points per game and 11.4 expected half-PPR points per game. Expanding on BTJ’s numbers with T-Law, the following table illustrates the speedy wide receiver’s work through two years with Jacksonville’s franchise quarterback.

Among 91 wide receivers with at least 250 routes run in the regular season and the postseason combined in 2025, BTJ’s career 9.9 half-PPR points per game would have ranked 25th and his career 11.5 expected half-PPR points per game would have ranked 32nd.

BTJ’s career marks would support his WR30 ADP. Having said that, his most recent performance should carry more weight, and the presence of Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, even if I’m inclined to believe he’ll play a much higher rate of snaps on defense than offense, work against BTJ’s 2026 outlook.

In eight games after Jacksonville’s Week 9 bye last season, BTJ topped out at 87 receiving yards, cleared 50 receiving yards only two other times, and caught just two touchdowns. In addition, in Jacksonville’s final four games, Meyers paced the wideouts in route participation (91.0%), followed by Washington (77.4%) and then BTJ (76.8%). In those four games, Thomas had the following underwhelming numbers:

13.9-yard aDOT
17.5% air yards share
11.1% target share
0.13 TPRR
14.4% first-read rate
2.8 receptions per game
31.8 receiving yards per game
1.07 Y/RR
1 receiving touchdown
0.067 first downs per route run
6.1 half-PPR points per game
7.4 expected half-PPR points per game

BTJ should certainly be much better than he was in the final four games of the 2025 season, and a rebound from his sophomore slump is likely, but a rebound is unlikely to be to his world-beating rookie production. With the emergence of Washington, the reliability of Meyers and Hunter potentially mixing in enough to be a headache for both and BTJ, the price is too steep to invest in the third-year wide receiver.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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Josh Shepardson

@BChad50

Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts

Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) | ADP: 37.7 (WR15)

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) | ADP: 74.0 (WR30)

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