Welcome to the August update of the most overpriced players in NFFC high-stakes fantasy football drafts. The last two times I did this, I compared NFFC’s prices to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), finding the most overvalued players according to experts.
I’m taking a different approach this time around. Instead of comparing average draft position (ADP) to expert rankings, I’m making an apples-to-apples comparison of NFFC’s ADP to consensus PPR ADP.
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One might argue that NFFC’s high-stakes contests attract more savvy managers, so NFFC ADP is more “accurate” than consensus ADP. At the very least, NFFC managers tend to agree more with experts, as the site’s ADP tends to skew toward consensus rankings.
However, I’m still a believer that there’s something to be learned from the wisdom of the crowds. Even if you don’t agree, it’s still worth knowing which players cost a high-stakes premium on NFFC compared to consensus ADP. Without further ado, here are those players.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFFC
Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB) | NFFC ADP: 73/Consensus ADP: 112
On the one hand, there’s a lot to like about Emeka Egbuka. His four-year career at Ohio State was impressive, even if he was often overshadowed by some of the best receiver prospects of the last few years. He received first-round draft capital and joins a very fantasy-friendly offense. Traditionally, that’s exactly the kind of profile we want to target to find league-winning upside.
On the other hand, it’s easy to see why consensus ADP isn’t quite ready to draft the rookie as a top-75 (or top-100) pick. The Buccaneers’ offense was so successful last season largely because of the talented playmakers they already have. Mike Evans is a machine, Chris Godwin was on an absolute tear before his injury, and even Jalen McMillan finished his rookie season strong.
We have to balance these exciting and not-so-exciting factors when determining where Egbuka should be selected in fantasy drafts. If Godwin and Evans are both their usual target-dominating selves, it’s hard to see the rookie making much of an impact. But if just one of them is unavailable — which isn’t too unlikely with Godwin still recovering from the injury that ended his 2024 season and Evans turning 32 in about a week — Egbuka could easily be a weekly fantasy option.
I lean toward chasing the upside with Egbuka… but I wouldn’t chase it this high, where NFFC drafters are selecting him as the WR37 overall. That’s ahead of other high-upside players like his own teammate Godwin, new Patriots No. 1WR Stefon Diggs, and the 49ers duo of Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings. That’s not to mention another first-round rookie with a much clearer path to an elite target share in Matthew Golden. Egbuka is an exciting fantasy pick this season, but there are simply better bets available at his NFFC ADP.
Chase Brown (RB – CIN) | NFFC ADP: 18/Consensus ADP: 26
This is a very interesting one, as NFFC drafters love the Bengals’ third-year running back, drafting him in the second round as the RB8 overall. The overall fantasy community isn’t sold, making him a third-rounder and the RB12. The ECR split the difference. They agree with NFFC drafters that Brown deserves to be the RB8, but they prefer players at other positions in the second round; his overall ECR is 27, below even his consensus ADP.
Given these conflicting valuations, let’s go back to the basics. From Week 9 onward, after Zack Moss‘ season ended with a neck injury, Brown averaged 20.6 PPR points per game. Only Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs were above that mark for the full season. However, the then-sophomore back put up those numbers while seeing almost every touch in Cincinnati’s backfield.
With a whole offseason to prepare, the Bengals aren’t going to put their entire backfield on Brown’s plate again… or will they? The Bengals recently cut Moss, leaving sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks and dusty veteran Samaje Perine as Brown’s only competition. Brooks could be something, but the history of Day 3 draft picks isn’t inspiring. Perine will likely be used in obvious passing situations, but Brown wasn’t doing much in those situations anyway (the Bengals even experimented with putting blocking tight ends in the backfield).
There’s a chance Brown simply runs it back as an absolute workhorse for one of the league’s most productive offenses. If that’s the case, he can probably pay off this mid-second-round price tag. But he also comes with risk, whether his role regresses or he breaks down under a full season of 25 touches per game. Whether you take the consensus ADP approach and pass on him for a different back (Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, or Josh Jacobs) or trust the experts and go for another position entirely (A.J. Brown, Lamar Jackson or Trey McBride), it’s probably worth thinking twice before drafting Brown at this ADP.
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE) | NFFC ADP: 145/Consensus ADP: 224
We’re sliding way down the ranks here from a second-round running back to a late-round receiver. Note that ADP and rankings both become far less important later in the draft. But especially in a high-stakes environment like NFFC, every pick still matters. I can’t just ignore that DeMario Douglas is being drafted six and a half rounds earlier on NFFC than on other platforms.
To be fair, ADPs this late are often impacted by the presence or lack thereof of kickers and defenses, which accounts for a solid chunk of this difference. Consensus ADP, skewed especially by shallower league formats like ESPN, has a whopping 17 kickers and 21 D/STs above Douglas — NFFC has just one of each. But that discrepancy doesn’t account for the full difference here: Douglas is the WR62 in NFFC ADP and the WR72 in consensus ADP.
Douglas did finish 2024 as the WR60 in PPR points per game, above both of his ADPs. However, the arrival of Stefon Diggs could cut into his usage, especially if Diggs sees routes in the slot (Douglas ran 79% of his routes and scored 81% of his fantasy points from the slot last season). To make up for this, either Douglas individually or the Patriots’ offense as a whole will need to take a step forward. With Josh McDaniels back in New England and Drake Maye heading into his second year, the latter is very plausible, but it’s certainly not guaranteed
However, the real issue here is that Douglas simply doesn’t provide much upside. He could outperform even the higher of his two ADPs, but it’s very unlikely for him to be a true league winner. The deeper format on NFFC does incentivize leaning more toward safety in the double-digit rounds, but the main goal late in drafts should still be to find game-changing players. Two good-not-great years as a slot specialist into his NFL career, it’s hard to see Douglas becoming a game-changer. The other receivers near his ADP aren’t too inspiring, but names like Braelon Allen, Dallas Goedert and Bhayshul Tuten are.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
