Calling any player a must-have selection is technically inaccurate. Fantasy football gamers shouldn’t reach so far in drafts on anyone to sap the excess value they can provide entirely. Instead, the following two running backs are excellent targets at or slightly ahead of their average draft positions (ADP).
Fantasy Football Targets: Running Backs
The expression, “you can’t go broke turning a profit,” comes to mind for James Conner. The veteran running back doesn’t have blazing speed. He won’t be confused for Barry Sanders in a highlight reel. Nevertheless, Conner is a workhorse running back, and he’s aging like a fine wine, producing his highest yardage output in a single season of his career as a 29-year-old last season.
Equally important, Conner played a career-high 16 games in 2024. Conner’s underlying rushing data was superb. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Conner had the following stats and rankings (in parentheses) among 72 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts in the 2024 regular season and playoffs.
- 68.4 rushing yards per game (10th)
- 4.64 yards per carry (14th)
- 1.99 yards before contact per attempt (25th)
- 2.65 yards after contact per attempt (tied for 12th)
- 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt (2nd)
- 6.8% explosive run rate (tied for 8th)
- Eight rushing touchdowns (tied for 15th)
- 14.6 expected half-point per reception (half PPR) fantasy points per game (16th)
Conner wasn’t a non-factor through the air, either. Instead, he was an asset. Among 86 running backs with at least 50 routes in the regular season and playoffs, Conner was 21st in target share (10.2%), tied for 21st in targets per route run (0.22), tied for 19th in targets per game (3.3), tied for 12th in receptions (47), eighth in receiving yards per game (25.9) and seventh in yards per route run (1.75).
Conner remains atop Arizona’s backfield, positioning him for another bell-cow role. He was tied for the RB14 in half PPR points per game (14.4) last season, putting him on the fringes of an RB1 finish. Conner is at a slight discount from last year’s finish and a viable RB1 for gamers who hammer other positions early in drafts this year, or a high-end RB2 for those who go to the well twice in the first few rounds. Conner offers gamers an exciting mix of a high floor and some wiggle room to perform better than his RB19 ADP, as evidenced by last year’s RB14 finish.
The scoring format of a league is critical for Jaylen Warren’s fantasy value, as he’s a much less exciting option in standard formats than in half PPR and PPR leagues. The Steelers spent their second pick, the 83rd overall selection, in this year’s NFL Draft on bruising running back Kaleb Johnson.
Johnson has the prototypical size to pound the rock between the tackles, and Iowa utilized him as a hammer. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran the ball 240 times in 12 games in his final collegiate season. However, Johnson had only 25 targets, 22 receptions and 190 receiving yards in 2024 after tallying just 10 targets and seven receptions through his first two seasons. Johnson had an uninspiring 0.13 targets per route run in his college career. In fairness, it was a more respectable 0.17 targets per route run in his final season. That would have been just slightly below midpack among NFL running backs with at least 50 routes last year.
Still, Warren has excelled as a passing-game option. Among 86 running backs with at least 50 routes last season, including the playoffs, Warren was tied for 19th in target share (10.3%), tied for 21st in targets per route run (0.22), tied for 22nd in targets per game (3.0), 21st in receiving yards per game (20.6) and 19th in yards per route run (1.50).
Interestingly, Warren was better as a receiver in 2023, and he was a little banged up throughout 2024, which may explain the dip in production. In 2023, Warren had the following receiving stats.
- 13.4% target share
- 0.29 targets per route run
- 4.1 targets per game
- 3.5 receptions per game
- 21.4 receiving yards per game
- 1.52 yards per route run
At the least, Warren should be the passing-game complement to Johnson, which is a valuable role with Aaron Rodgers leading the Steelers. Rodgers has a track record of peppering his running backs with targets, and Pittsburgh has a decided lack of ancillary pieces behind No. 1 wideout DK Metcalf.
While Warren’s receiving chops elevate his floor and carve out a role for him in the team’s offense, he’s not useless as a runner. He was an efficient change-of-pace runner on a limited workload of 77 rush attempts as a rookie in 2022. Warren’s nifty season as a rookie earned him a larger workshare in 2023.
Unfortunately, his efficiency took a sizable step back in 2024. Even in a less efficient 2024 campaign, Warren recorded 32.3 rushing yards per game, 4.24 yards per carry and 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt. A down year doesn’t mean he no longer has his pre-2024 juice. In 2023, Warren rattled off 46.1 rushing yards per game, 5.26 yards per carry, an 8.1% explosive run rate and an eye-popping 0.34 missed tackles forced per attempt.
Johnson will likely get the first crack at handling the lion’s share of Pittsburgh’s backfield rush attempts. Still, if Warren recaptures his pre-2024 form, he could cut into Johnson’s rush attempts. Moreover, if Johnson struggles in his rookie campaign, it could open up more rushing opportunities for Warren. The fourth-year RB out of Oklahoma State should have value as a plug-and-play RB2 in half-PPR and PPR leagues during bye weeks, even if he’s only the pass-catching and change-of-pace complement to Johnson this year. Yet, Warren could be an RB2 mainstay in fantasy football lineups if he earns Rodgers’ and the coaching staff’s trust or the rookie running back ahead of him in the rushing pecking order loses their trust. Finally, Pittsburgh’s first preseason contest provided an eye-catching data point, with Warren resting with the starters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
