Fantasy Football Projections: Running Backs Over/Under Picks (2025)

Here at FantasyPros, we have a section dedicated to consensus fantasy football projections that spans across all positions. Below, I’ll examine which players at the running back position will exceed or fall short of the projections posted. Let’s dive in.

Fantasy Football Projections: Running Back

Over: Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)

Projections:

227.5 Carries
958.5 Yards
5.4 Rushing Touchdowns
40.2 Receptions
257.9 Receiving Yards
0.9 Receiving Touchdowns
197.4 PPR Points

Admittedly, I don’t think Tony Pollard is going to soar past these projections, but I tend to think he might perform slightly above expectations.

Pollard has run for over 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons and has gone above the 5.4 touchdown mark twice. In 2024, he had his highest rushing total (1,079 yards), but fell short of the touchdown projection above, ending with five. Pollard did record 260 carries last year, but that was with a worse offensive line and horrendous quarterback play.

In 2025, Pollard will have a competent quarterback in Cam Ward and play behind an offensive line that has added strong veterans in Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler.

Detractors might point to Tyjae Spears. Sure, he’s a solid handcuff, but he’s also out for the rest of the preseason with a high-ankle sprain. Let’s also remember that across 84 carries last season, Spears averaged just 3.7 yards per tote.

I don’t think a 1,200-yard season is in store for Pollard, but he could be slightly better than what the projections predict.

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Under: Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

Projections:

223.1 Carries
995.6 Yards
5.9 Rushing Touchdowns
46.2 Receptions
379.2 Receiving Yards
2.1 Receiving Touchdowns
227.8 PPR Points

Looking at the projections for Breece Hall, I have trouble believing he’ll overperform. In 2024, Hall played in 16 games. He ran 209 times for 876 yards and scored five touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. He also caught 57 passes on 76 targets for 483 yards and three touchdowns.

The receiving totals will fall, which is fair. As for the rushing projections, the assumption is that he will total 100+ yards more than in 2024. Yes, he played in 16 out of 17 games last season, but there are other factors to consider, such as quarterback Justin Fields and fellow running back Braelon Allen.

Allen had 92 carries for 334 yards and two touchdowns last season. He wasn’t used much, and while he wasn’t as efficient, he was only a rookie behind an established player. While Allen is a factor to monitor, Fields will be a large part of the Jets’ offense in the ground game. Over his career, Fields averages about nine carries per start and is at six yards per carry. He’s going to run the ball plenty.

Hall, who had a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers off of an Achilles tear in 2024 at quarterback, averaged 13 carries per game. His rushing upside won’t be as significant as these projections suggest.

Under: Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

Projections:

236.5 Carries
974 Yards
8.2 Rushing Touchdowns
43.1 Receptions
307.9 Receiving Yards
1.3 Receiving Touchdowns
225.5 PPR Points

As a player, Kenneth Walker is always fantastic to watch, but we have to be honest: He has trouble staying on the field. Over three seasons and 51 possible games, he’s played in just 37 of them. Walker played in 11 games last season, rushing for 573 yards on 153 carries and seven touchdowns. He averaged 52.1 yards per game.

Over his career, Walker averages about 61.7 yards per game. Let’s assume he matches his career-high of 15 games. Based on his career per-game yardage average, that would be about 925 rushing yards. Remember, though, he averaged almost 10 fewer yards per game last season, and Zach Charbonnet has proven to be a competent backup.

I’m veering towards the under here based on health and performance when Walker is healthy.