Every year, fantasy football experts and managers alike devote countless hours to dissecting ambiguous backfields. These unclear situations are risky, but they are also one of the best places to find cheap upside in your fantasy drafts.
Although they’re not as frequently discussed, the same applies to ambiguous receiver situations. When teams have multiple talented receivers but no clear alpha, their average draft positions (ADPs) are driven down, as fantasy managers want to avoid the risk of backing the wrong horse.
Sometimes, this is the right call, as receivers can cannibalize one another’s value. But more often, one player eventually establishes themselves as the team’s top receiver, and that player ends up being a huge fantasy hit as a result. Meanwhile, other receivers on that team play smaller roles and underperform their ADPs.
That’s what today’s article is about: Attempting to determine which players to target and which to avoid in crowded receiver rooms. I went through this same exercise last year, with mixed results. I correctly identified Nico Collins as an alpha receiver and smash pick, while flagging Jayden Reed and Tank Dell as overvalued. I was also in on Dontayvion Wicks and the Bears’ offense as a whole. Hopefully, this year we can wade through these murky situations to find the values while avoiding pitfalls.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Ambiguous Wide Receiver Situations (Fantasy Football)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans vs. Chris Godwin vs. Emeka Egbuka
With a cursory glance at half-PPR ADP, this situation doesn’t seem too ambiguous. Mike Evans is the clear top option at WR16, Chris Godwin is second at WR36 and Emeka Egbuka brings up the rear at WR47. But that WR47 ranking makes the first-round rookie the highest-drafted third receiver of any NFL team. Given that it is exceedingly rare for three receivers on one team all to find fantasy success, something has to give.
Consulting other ADP sources also points to the tension here. In Underdog’s best ball ADP, which admittedly skews toward younger players, Egbuka has easily flipped Godwin, ranking as the WR37 to the veteran’s WR47.
We also have to consider that Evans’ spot at the top might not be as safe as it seems. In the seven games where they were both healthy last season, Godwin outtargetted Evans 61 to 42. Evans averaged just 11.8 half-PPR points in those games compared to 17.3 without Godwin. Are we sure Evans can produce elite fantasy numbers alongside Godwin, or that he is even the team’s No. 1 WR if everyone is healthy?
On the other hand, Godwin himself is reportedly likely to start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list thanks to the ankle injury that ended his 2024 season. The more we dive into this situation, the more questions there are. But we know that this offense (which ranked third in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns last year) is going to provide some fantasy scoring, so it’s important we answer those questions.
Worst Pick: Chris Godwin
If you had asked me a few days ago, before the most recent discouraging reports on his health, I might have given a different answer here. I actually selected Godwin in a draft at the Fantasy Football Expo this last weekend.
But things change fast at this time of the year. We know now Godwin is almost certainly going to miss at least four games. That’s a substantial chunk of the season, and there’s no guarantee he will be his old self when he returns.
Godwin’s explosive start to last season, in which he produced like an elite fantasy WR1 with 16.1 points per game, is still tantalizing. He’s by no means a must-avoid if he slips past his ADP. But drafting him as your WR3 in the mid rounds is simply setting your team behind the eight ball to start the season, with no guarantee of a substantial payout down the line.
Best Pick: Emeka Egbuka
It certainly doesn’t always work (just look at Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. last year), but simply closing your eyes and drafting first-round rookie receivers is usually a good fantasy strategy (just look at Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. last year). This is especially true when those receivers are relatively cheap, which Egbuka is — for now — at WR47.
Egbuka is tricky to evaluate as a prospect, as he spent most of his four years at Ohio State playing Robin to the Batman (Batmen?) of some of the best college wideouts of the last few years. But he’s a savvy route runner with a skillset that should translate well to racking up fantasy points.
With Godwin out to start the season, Egbuka will get a chance to establish himself as an integral part of this Tampa Bay offense. Yes, Godwin’s return will eventually call his role into question. But Egbuka is still a 22-year-old rookie. Godwin is 29 years old and coming off a substantial injury, while Evans is 32. Betting on the youngest (and cheapest) member of this receiving trio is a low-risk, high-reward play.
San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings vs. Ricky Pearsall vs. Brandon Aiyuk
Perhaps I’m blinded by my 49ers fandom, but I did not expect San Francisco to feature as one of the most ambiguous rooms in the league. But, according to consensus ADP, it undeniably is. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are being drafted back-to-back with ADPs of WR42 and WR43, and Brandon Aiyuk isn’t far behind at all at WR49.
In hindsight, this makes sense. The 49ers’ offense under Kyle Shanahan is consistently a gold mine, so one of these players will likely be a huge winner. But it’s hard to predict who. Aiyuk was one of the league’s best receivers in 2023, but he started 2024 slowly before his season ended due to a torn MCL and ACL. Shanahan recently set Week 6 as a potential timeline for his return to the field.
Meanwhile, Jennings emerged as the 49ers’ top receiver down the stretch of last season. But he is currently dealing with a calf injury of his own, which may or may not be related to his desire for a new contract. Last year was also the first time he was anything close to a startable fantasy asset, despite this being his fourth year in the league and age-27 season.
Pearsall, a 24-year-old former first-round pick heading into his second season, might be the obvious answer. But he wasn’t impressive as a rookie, finishing with just 400 yards in 11 games on a very underwhelming 1.31 yards per route run. Maybe the fact that he got shot right before the season started had something to do with it, or maybe he just didn’t deserve that first-round draft capital.
Worst Pick: Brandon Aiyuk
I hate to keep picking on already injured players, but Aiyuk joins Godwin in being overpriced even with a baked-in injury discount. As a 49ers homer and former Aiyuk truther, I want to believe in a world where he eventually returns to the field and reestablishes himself as an elite playmaker. While possible, that world seems very unlikely.
Aiyuk only played seven games in 2024, but we can’t ignore that he wasn’t the same player in those seven outings as he was in 2023. His Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade dropped from 92.3 to 74.1, while his yards per route run were cut nearly in half from 3.01 to 1.74. Admittedly, those 2023 numbers were some of the best in the league, and his 2024 marks were still slightly above average. But that fall-off was also before he suffered a gruesome knee injury.
If you draft Aiyuk, he will likely be on your bench for at least a third of the season. Even once he returns, he will likely be eased in for a game or two. If the 49ers’ offense is humming with either Jennings or Pearsall in the No. 1 WR role, there’s zero reason to believe he takes it back, especially given his long history of clashing with Shanahan. There’s still upside here, but the path to it is too slim to be worth the price.
Best Picks: Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall
I recommend loading up on both Jennings and Pearsall at their current prices. I prefer Jennings. But they are both massively underpriced, according to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), and I agree.
Starting with Jennings, it is true that a fourth-year breakout is suspicious. But Jennings wasn’t just OK last season. He was excellent, ranking 15th among qualified receivers in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run. Assuming that his calf injury and contract situation clear up (potentially one because of the other), he should step right back in as the top target for Brock Purdy.
Pearsall is also a very intriguing bet. I’m admittedly less excited about him as a player, given his underwhelming rookie year. But I have to give him at least a bit of a pass for lackluster production after being shot. He also finished the year strong with 14 catches for 210 yards and two scores in Weeks 17 and 18. When in doubt, betting on the second-year first-round pick in a Kyle Shanahan offense is probably a good idea.
Chicago Bears: DJ Moore vs. Rome Odunze vs. Luther Burden III
The Bears featured in last year’s edition of this article, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze making up a three-headed monster. Allen is now out of the picture, but he has been replaced by an exciting young rookie in second-rounder Luther Burden.
Before we dive into the players, we do have to consider whether this is even a situation worth chasing. Last year, the Bears’ Caleb Williams-led offense was a massive disappointment. All three receivers underperformed their ADPs in terms of points per game. The arrival of Ben Johnson brings new hope, but there’s a chance we are simply setting ourselves up for disappointment yet again.
With that said, it’s easy to see the upside with all three of these players. Moore is an established NFL No. 1 WR with a ton of quality production on his resume at 28 years old. Odunze was the ninth-overall pick in last year’s draft, which still carries weight despite his underwhelming rookie year. Burden didn’t quite get first-round draft capital, but his college production profile screams upside.
If you don’t believe in Williams and the Bears’ offense as a whole, feel free to skip the rest of this article and avoid all three wideouts. That may very well end up being the right decision. But if you still have some hope, read on.
Worst Pick: Rome Odunze
As someone who traded Nabers for Odunze and change in a dynasty league at this time last year, I want to believe in the 23-year-old. We have grown increasingly impatient with top rookies; third-year wide receivers used to be considered breakout candidates, let alone sophomores. But Odunze’s WR35 ADP is just a bit rich for my blood.
At the end of the day, Odunze’s rookie year just wasn’t very good. He ranked 73rd out of qualified wide receivers in PFF receiving grade, right between the corpse of Tyler Lockett and Cardinals slot demon Greg Dortch. He performed even worse on a per-route basis, ranking 81st with just 1.81 yards per route run.
Odunze certainly still could break out. He was an excellent prospect and received elite draft capital. But that capital is much less relevant with a new coach in town who wasn’t around when it was spent.
That the Bears spent not just their second-round pick on Burden but also the 10th-overall pick on another pass-catching weapon in tight end Colston Loveland is not a good sign, either. (By the way, I probably should have mentioned Loveland as a risk factor in the “what if they all disappoint again” section above.) Putting it all together, I just can’t get behind taking Odunze over players like Jordan Addison, Stefon Diggs and even the aforementioned Jauan Jennings.
Best Pick: Luther Burden III
To a certain extent, this is the cop-out answer. With an ADP of WR52, Burden is the cheapest of these three receivers by a good margin. That inherently makes him less risky. If the Bears’ offense implodes again, you’ll be a lot happier having wasted a 12th-round pick on Burden than a fourth-round pick on Moore.
But there’s also a lot to like about Burden regardless of his price. As I mentioned earlier, his analytical prospect profile was excellent. His 2024 season wasn’t quite as impressive, but his 2023 as a 19-year-old true sophomore was elite.
I also don’t think we can discount the fact that Burden is the only one of these three receivers who arrived after Ben Johnson, presumably with Johnson’s input. The former Lions offensive coordinator should be able to cook up some fun plays for Burden’s 4.41 speed.
Burden could easily be nothing as a rookie, whether the Bears’ offense as a whole disappoints or he doesn’t earn a meaningful role. But it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that we reach the fantasy playoffs and he is tearing things up as the No. 1 WR for a reinvigorated Williams. I’m chasing that upside at his relatively low cost.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
