Drafts are happening thick and fast over at FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship), and we’re entering the most volatile part of the year for average draft position (ADP) movement. Every time a player lands on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, even if it’s only for a short time, we’ll see big movements. Not to mention contract extensions, injuries and much more that will impact draft values. Below are the biggest risers and fallers in the last 30 days in FFPC’s $125 1-QB, TE-Premium best ball contest.
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Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
FFPC Risers
Dylan Sampson (RB – CLE) | ADP: 150 (+31)
Sometimes it’s situations you can’t possibly foresee that cause the most impact in ADP movement, and that’s the situation we’re finding with the Cleveland Browns backfield in the wake of domestic violence accusations for Quinshon Judkins.
The current assumption is anywhere between four to six games missed for Judkins, which presents a huge opportunity to Dylan Sampson, who had plenty of his fans coming out of the draft. Sampson was an interesting addition as the lightning to Judkins’ thunder, and it remains to be seen if he can operate as a lead back, with most fourth-round rookies not necessarily able to do so, but at the moment, his cost isn’t such that we need to worry about that too greatly.
Jerome Ford (adp 188; +29) is also up over two rounds in ADP. Ford is likely to have a slightly more reliable role over the opening months, and he can be paired with other rookie running backs, such as TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, who may need to earn their roles as the season progresses.
People who are drafting Jerome Ford over Dylan Sampson are going to severely regret it
Dylan Sampson is the real deal
— David Mendelson (@DMendy02) July 19, 2025
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) | ADP: 116 (+23)
Over the last month, J.K. Dobbins has continued to creep up in ADP, now sitting just inside of the top 120. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him break the top 100 if reports continue to suggest he’ll start the season with the edge over RJ Harvey in the highly valuable areas of pass-catching and goal-line work.
Dobbins ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) pass block grades last year, which is a noteworthy point when many rookies come into the league lacking in that department. Sean Payton has mentioned several times that Harvey needs to work on that area. Dobbins slowed down as the 2024 season went along, but still set career-highs in rushing attempts (195), rushing yards (905), yards per game (69.6), targets (38) and receptions (32). In theory, he is another year removed from his serious injuries. At this cost, it’s a relatively risk-free bet to make.
Jordan Mason (RB – MIN) | ADP: 95 (+15)
One player who has already climbed into the top 100 is Jordan Mason, who, like Dobbins, has been on a steady climb over recent weeks. The Vikings continue to let it be known to beat reporters that they intend for Mason to have a notable role, particularly around the goal line, which should be enough for anyone to want to draft Mason.
Vikings RB Jordan Mason pic.twitter.com/s3APE2xYVt
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 20, 2025
Mason forced missed tackles at the sixth-highest rate among running backs last year as well as having the seventh-highest yards per carry on zone concept runs, something the Vikings lean heavily into.
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN) | ADP: 121 (+11)
One aftereffect of Aaron Rodgers finally signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers is that drafters can now remove the last whispers of doubt around J.J. McCarthy being the Vikings’ starter for the entirety of the 2025 season. Along with this, McCarthy also had a promising mini-camp, and hype is starting to build for a player some analysts believe can be truly special.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) | ADP: 101 (+10)
Perhaps now that Anthony Richardson is healthier and set to take part in the start of training camp, we might see another dip in ADP for Colts pass-catchers, or perhaps we get more confirmation that things are trending towards Daniel Jones being the starter and this cost looks like a bargain in a month.
Either way, Downs has steadily been rising for a few weeks, and drafters are coming around to a player who ranked 16th in yards per route run among those with 50+ catches. Among those 15 names ahead of Downs, 13 were players who finished as top-24 wide receivers. We know he’s talented; he just needs better quarterback play.
Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB) | ADP: 122 (+10)
We knew it was possible, if not likely, that Chris Godwin could start camp unable to partake, but still, we’re seeing a sizeable rise for Emeka Egbuka, up almost a round in the last few weeks. This points to more of an inefficiency in Egbuka’s original price than anything else, given that he’s a high-floor player, playing in an offense that can move the ball through the air at will. He will earn a role quickly thanks to his willingness to work in the blocking area of the game.
Emeka Egbuka 2025 #ReceptionPerception Prospect Profile ????
– 68.1% success rate vs man
– 83.6% success rate vs zone (82nd percentile)
– 81.3% success rate vs press (very limited reps caveat)
– Strong set of handsMy appreciation for Egbuka grew the more games I added to the… pic.twitter.com/r9gSzNLXzH
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 28, 2025
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | ADP: 98 (+5)
The TE-Premium scoring setting in this format always has a big impact on the position, but it was also surprising that Dalton Kincaid wasn’t inside the top 100 picks before this time. Kincaid, for his part, has been a fine player; he just struggles when Dawson Knox is on the field and available. Knox was frequently involved in play-action schemes, boasting a 52% route run per team dropback rate, per FantasyPoints.com.
Only 16 of Kincaid’s 71 targets came on play-action, compared to Knox seeing almost half of his 31 targets in these looks. The Bills also weren’t a pass-heavy team in the red zone, with Josh Allen ranked 12th in red-zone pass attempts (72), which further made Kincaid’s struggles more of an issue. At this cost, though, we can afford to mix in some Kincaid and hope for a what-if situation. We know he has the upside; he just needs the snaps.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) | ADP: 90 (+4)
When you try and come up with a list of tight ends who could make the leap to the truly elite level of the position, it’s hard not to wonder about Tucker Kraft. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers are simply too run-heavy, having run the ball at the third-highest rate last year, but we have seen elite years from Mark Andrews, who dealt with similar.
Kraft can deliver with touchdowns, having scored the third-most in 2024 (seven), and his 9.38 yards after the catch led all tight ends by a wide margin. If the Packers veer more pass-heavy with the addition of Matthew Golden, don’t be surprised if you’re kicking yourself for missing out on Kraft.
FFPC Fallers
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) | ADP: 169 (-43)
Even in TE-Premium formats, it’s become tricky to write a strong argument in favor of Pat Freiermuth in recent weeks. He might become Rodgers’ preferred target at the position, ahead of Jonnu Smith, for no other reason than Rodgers likes what he likes. Volume will be the major concern with the Steelers having run at the fifth-highest rate in 2024 and Arthur Smith unlikely to veer too far away from that with this team setup.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE) | ADP: 94 (-33)
The only real questions here are how many games Quinshon Judkins will be suspended this year, if any. If suspended, where does his ADP land?
Najee Harris (RB – LAC) | ADP: 112 (-17)
A big mover in recent days is Najee Harris, whose eye injury suffered in July has drafters spooked. Reports around the situation are mixed, at best, but now that Harris has landed on the PUP list, it’s forcing drafters to assess whether they believe he’ll be OK in time for the season. Vision seems like quite a useful ability for a running back, and Harris can’t afford to give an inch to Omarion Hampton in this timeshare.
"Welcome to the team Najee, we're happy to have a consistent RB on our team"
Najee Harris: pic.twitter.com/83FdOuXCDf
— JV ⚡️ (@bolt_jv) July 10, 2025
Devin Neal (RB – NO) | ADP: 221 (-16)
The Saints always seemed unlikely to take too much of the lead running back duties away from Alvin Kamara this year, but now Devin Neal’s path to relevancy is facing even more of a battle with Kendre Miller and Cam Akers also in the mix. For those looking for positive reasons to draft Neal, perhaps you can talk yourself into the belief he was drafted by this regime, which surely counts for something?
Jaydon Blue (RB – DAL) | ADP: 141 (-16)
Mixed reports are surrounding the Jaydon Blue situation in Dallas, with some suggesting Blue is lazy and a long way from Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams in the running back depth chart battle. That could be true, or it could just be the kind of reporting we get this time of year about rookies.
Oofffff not good for Jaydon Blue ???? pic.twitter.com/titTfP34KP
— Sean Mitchell (@smitchell17) July 18, 2025
At the top end of the scale, we’ve heard negative reports about Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson in their rookie offseasons, and they didn’t count for much. Blue, however, is not of a similar talent level, having been drafted in the fifth round. His battle is as much with the rest of the team for a roster spot, rather than just worrying about how this running back room shakes out.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) | ADP: 129 (-15)
We surely knew this was coming, right? Reports as far back as February suggested Brandon Aiyuk, who is coming off multiple torn knee ligaments, wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. Yet here we are in late July reacting to Aiyuk not being ready for training camp.
If you were in on Aiyuk, now is the time to decide if the dip is worth pursuing. If you weren’t in on Aiyuk, now is the time to decide if the price is finally right. For what it’s worth, Aiyuk came off a tumultuous offseason in 2024 and had his fewest receptions per game since 2021 (3.6) and posted a career-low 53.2% catch rate. How confident can you be he’ll be better this year with no offseason once again?
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