In 2024, there was plenty of debate over whether the running back dead zone existed as wide receivers were pushed heavily up draft boards. After a season in which running backs bounced back, they are now being drafted more aggressively than before, which begs the question… is the fantasy football running back dead zone back in best ball?
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Fantasy Football Dead Zone RBs to Fade in Best Ball
For those unfamiliar with the running back dead zone, it dates back to work done by Shawn Siegele (RotoViz), Ben Gretch (Stealing Signals) and Jack Miller (Establish The Run). Their work showed that taking running backs between rounds three and six typically worked out very poorly for fantasy football teams.
2025 Fantasy Football Dead Zone RBs
Currently, there are 15 running backs in the traditional dead zone rounds, based on Underdog’s average draft position (ADP). Who should you target and who should you fade?
| Name | Position | Team | ADP |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 25 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 30.2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 33 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 41.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 44 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 37.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 56.8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | SEA | 58.6 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | HOU | 51.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB | DET | 70.7 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 63.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 61.8 |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 54.9 |
| James Conner | RB | ARI | 67.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 72.9 |
2025 Fantasy Football Dead Zone RBs to Avoid
James Cook (RB – BUF)
The Bills running back is currently heading towards a training camp contract standoff, having been vocal about wanting to get paid. The Bills, for their part, have been consistently extending or re-signing their own players this offseason, but James Cook hasn’t received an invite to the party yet.
Cook, for his part, led all players in touchdowns during the fantasy football season (17), but that was quite the outlier compared to the nine touchdowns he combined to score in the previous two seasons. Cook was incredibly reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy value, ranking 24th in scrimmage yardage among running backs.
If Cook signs a contract extension, he’ll likely increase in cost, but it’s hard not to consider he could be primed for touchdown regression.
Verdict: Fade, unless he falls past his ADP
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
The Texans did very little to make us concerned for Joe Mixon’s workload this year when it comes to the backfield, but the changes on the offensive line are perhaps a concern.
Their offensive line ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades in 2024, and they traded Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Perhaps Mixon can overcome this with involvement in the passing game, but it’s not a great recipe.
Verdict: Approach with caution
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
The Lions lost David Montgomery for the last three weeks of the season to injury, but he made it back for their only playoff game. He saw only seven touches compared to Jahmyr Gibbs‘s 14.
Whether that trend continues in 2025 is hard to say. The Lions love Montgomery, and if he continues to hold the goal-line role, he’ll have value, but it’s very hard to predict.
Verdict: Approach with caution
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
This will be Alvin Kamara’s ninth NFL season, and he’s yet to hit 1,000 rushing yards in any of them. With an awful offensive line, who knows what at quarterback and Kendre Miller earning more touches last season, it’s hard to get too excited about Kamara or anyone in this offense.
Verdict: Fade
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
This ADP (54.9) feels very expensive. RJ Harvey was a surprise selection by the Broncos with the 60th pick in the draft, ahead of some backs expected to go before him. The Broncos have been a messy committee for a few years now, and Sean Payton has long talked about wanting to work with two running backs in an offense.
Last year, nobody was effective in this backfield, but if one of Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin can take valuable touches away from Harvey, it could be tricky for him to pay off this expensive cost.
Verdict: Approach with caution
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
The Browns made people excited when Quinshon Judkins was selected with the 36th overall pick, but that excitement was somewhat hampered by them re-signing Jerome Ford and also selecting promising rookie Dylan Sampson with the 126th pick.
This offense could be problematic with issues at quarterback and a work-in-progress offensive line, which adds to the worry of a committee approach.
Verdict: Approach with caution
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
The biggest concerns for Aaron Jones are his health and Jordan Mason‘s addition to the backfield. Jones has played 17 games in two of the last three seasons, but he consistently seems to get banged up and miss drives, hitting the 20-touch mark only twice in his last five games of 2024.
Mason looks like he’ll thrive in this scheme, and the Vikings seemed set on adding someone with strong ability to compete with Jones.
Verdict: Fade
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
The Bears didn’t draft a running back, despite being linked with many of the top options. D’Andre Swift has fallen into a de facto No. 1 RB role once more, with only Roschon Johnson behind him.
It’s hard to fade Swift entirely when he has a prime role, but it’s also hard to ignore how Swift’s career has panned out with teams never seeming to be enamored with him.
Verdict: Approach with caution
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