Once again, FanDuel and DraftKings have different main slates. So, today’s DFS selections are focused on the main slate at DraftKings, which has only three games, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. Today’s pick ’em suggestions at Sleeper and Underdog are also from the three-game afternoon slate.
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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Hunter Brown (HOU) at MIN
Hunter Brown rolled out a sinker last May, and he’s pitched well since adding that weapon to his arsenal. According to FanGraphs, Brown has had the following stats in 26 appearances (25 starts) spanning 153 innings since May 1, 2024.
- 2.53 ERA
- 3.33 xFIP
- 3.56 SIERA
- 1.12 WHIP
- 11 wins
- 19 quality starts
- 7.9 BB%
- 26.1 K%
- 49.3 GB%
- 27.3 CSW%
- 106 stuff+
- 103 location+
- 109 pitching+
Houston’s righty ace has also excelled on the road. In 32 road appearances (29 starts) since 2023, totaling 167 innings, Brown has had a 3.72 ERA, 3.25 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 6.8 BB%, 26.1 K%, and 53.3 GB%.
The Twins are a challenging matchup, and Joe Ryan is a talented starter. As a result, the Astros are slight underdogs at EVEN odds. However, the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. Thus, I’ll gladly back Brown in DFS contests on this tiny slate.
Tanner Houck (BOS) at BAL
The Rangers hung four runs, all earned, on Tanner Houck across 5.2 innings in his season debut. Still, the righty’s pitch modeling and velocity were fine. Thus, I’m giving Houck a pass for a substandard showing.
Houck can bounce back on the road against the Orioles. In 26 road starts spanning 141.1 innings since 2023, Houck has had a 3.50 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 21.7 K% and 57.3 GB%. The Orioles aren’t a pushover. Yet, five of their projected starters have had a 107 wRC+ or lower, including three at 94 or lower, against right-handed pitchers since 2023 or debuting. Three of them have also surpassed a 30.0 K%.
The betting info isn’t optimal. It’s OK, though. The Red Sox are -110, and the game’s total is 9.0 runs. Houck is an excellent SP2 with Brown on DraftKings.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
- Home (Citizens Bank Park)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/PHI -220
The Phillies are commanding betting favorites at home in a game with a total of 9.5 runs. They’re expected to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a lousy starting pitcher. Antonio Senzatela has pitched only 24.1 innings in the Majors since 2023. Still, he owns a 4.87 ERA in 696.1 innings in his career. Senzatela is a punching bag for all batters, yielding a .347 wOBA to 1,501 lefties and a .340 wOBA to 1,526 righties in his career. The Phillies shouldn’t have trouble hammering him this afternoon.
Core Studs
- Bryce Harper is a fire-breathing monster with the platoon advantage at home. In 403 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Harper has hit 21 homers with a .427 OBP, .260 ISO and 171 wRC+.
- In 391 plate appearances against righties on the road since 2023, Yordan Alvarez has hit 33 homers with a .435 OBP, .370 ISO and 203 wRC+.
- Kyle Schwarber is off to an excellent start this season. In 23 plate appearances in 2025, Schwarber has mashed three taters with a .391 OBP, .476 ISO and 229 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- In 368 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Brandon Marsh has hit 14 homers with a .380 OBP, .223 ISO and 146 wRC+.
- I was wrong about the Astros giving Yainer Diaz a day off on Wednesday afternoon. Will they give him a day off for Victor Caratini today? I think it’s possible, and Caratini’s 104 wRC+ against righties since 2023 is a steal at his salary.
- Brendan Rodgers started at second base in Brown’s first start this year. Second base has the least opportunity cost to punt, and rostering Rodgers at the minimum salary allows gamers to jam Harper, Alvarez and Schwarber into the same DFS roster.
Thursday’s Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Bryce Harper: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.78x)
Bryce Harper: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Underdog)
In addition to Harper’s dominance against righties at home cited above, he’s hit Senzatela hard in a small sample. Per Baseball Savant, in 15 career plate appearances against Senzatela, Harper has three hits (two homers), a .250 batting average, .308 xBA, .750 slugging, .853 xSLG, 95.9 miles per hour (MPH) average exit velocity and 7.6-degree launch angle.
Kyle Schwarber: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.96x)
Kyle Schwarber: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Underdog) (1.1x)
Schwarber had more success against Senzatela than Harper. In seven career plate appearances against Senzatela, Schwarber has three hits (one single, one double and one homer), a .429 batting average, .408 xBA, 1.000 slugging, .968 xSLG, 94.8 MPH average exit velocity and 14.2-degree launch angle. Additionally, in 922 plate appearances against righties since 2023, Schwarber has hit 65 singles, 32 doubles, one triple and 60 homers with a .210 batting average, .495 slugging and .285 ISO.
Yordan Alvarez: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – More (Sleeper) (1.83x)
Yordan Alvarez: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
In addition to Alvarez’s excellence against righties on the road, he’s also touched up Ryan. In 14 career plate appearances against Ryan, Alvarez has four hits (three homers), a .333 batting average, .333 xBA, 1.083 slugging and .881 xSLG. Finally, we project Alvarez to have 0.54 runs, 0.46 RBIs and 0.90 hits, totaling 1.90 hits plus runs and RBIs today.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.