It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed an RB they think have the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
Fantasy Football Busts
What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
“Aaron Jones, Vikings: Minnesota upgraded at RB2 with the trade for Jordan Mason. HC Kevin O’Connell has already signaled a sizable role for the former 49er — including at the goal line. Jones’ age (31) and injury history also suggest a cautious approach.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Aaron Jones (RB22 in the rankings) had a solid 2024 season, ending the year as the RB16, averaging 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting him as a low-end RB2 in 2025. The Minnesota Vikings traded for Jordan Mason this offseason. Head coach Kevin O’Connell wants Jones and Mason to form a 1A and 1B backfield. More importantly, the veteran had only five rushing touchdowns last year, his fourth consecutive season with five or fewer. Jones will likely lose even more short-yardage work to Mason.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Breece Hall could be a fantasy football bust in 2025 due to his declining efficiency, as evidenced by his career-low 4.2 yards per carry in 2024, compared to 5.8 in 2022 and 4.5 in 2023, signaling a potential loss of explosiveness. His rushing yardage dropped to 876 yards on 209 attempts in 2024, a significant decrease from his 994 yards on 223 carries in 2023, despite only slightly fewer opportunities, suggesting he’s less effective with his touches. Hall’s touchdown production also regressed, with just five rushing scores in 2024 compared to nine total touchdowns (five rushing, four receiving) in 2023, indicating a reduced scoring threat. His receiving stats took a hit as well, falling from 76 receptions for 591 yards in 2023 to 57 catches for 483 yards in 2024, which limits his PPR upside in an offense that may not prioritize him as a pass-catcher. Finally, the Jets’ backfield competition with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis (whom HC Aaron Glenn has suggested getting more involved), who combined for notable touches in 2024, alongside a meager team average of 21 rushing attempts per game, could cap his volume at around 200-220 carries, far below the workload needed for a top-tier fantasy running back.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
“The RB in the FantasyPros consensus top 24 that managers should fear as a bust candidate is Chase Brown. Brown was the RB14 in FPPG last season and is currently ranked as the RB13 in the consensus rankings. The Bengals have been doing their due diligence on the running back class, and it could end up being an RBBC in Cincinnati, which would drastically impact Brown’s value.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
“It has to be Saquon Barkley because fantasy managers will be staking a No. 1 pick on him. But why should we worry about Saquon going belly-up? He’s a (warning: tired fantasy football cliche ahead) “generational talent” playing in the most RB-friendly offense imaginable. Well, it’s more than a little concerning that Saquon touched the ball 482 times last season if you include the Eagles’ four playoff games. That’s a jaw-dropping workload. Saquon’s previous single-season high in touches was 352. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders once wrote about the “Curse of 370″ — a fate that doomed nearly all of the RBs who had accumulated 370 or more carries to substantial regression the following season. Saquon is a 28-year-old back who tore his ACL in 2020 and has had multiple ankle injuries. Yes, of course, Saquon could smash again. But it’s reasonable to fear that the mileage he piled up in 2024 could catch up with him in 2025.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“I know we’ve played this game for a few seasons: “Will Kyren Williams lose his bell-cow role and see his value cut in a committee?” Until this point, we have been wrong to assume that, but I worry this could be the year. The Rams have two third-round picks and another selection in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, where they could further address the running back position. I also haven’t mentioned Blake Corum to this point. This feels like the 2024 conversation I had around Rachaad White. At what point will the efficiency concerns catch up with Williams? Last year, among 46 qualifying backs (per PFF), Williams ranked 37th in yards after contact per attempt and 38th in elusive rating. That point in time could arrive in 2025.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
“There’s some noise that the New Orleans Saints could use an early pick on a running back, putting Alvin Kamara’s workload at risk. Kamara has been decreasing in efficiency for years; his 4.2 yards per carry in 2024 was the best mark he’d posted since 2020. His heavy usage has largely been a result of the fact that Kendre Miller can’t stay healthy and the Saints haven’t had a legit RB2 to complement him since Mark Ingram. There are a number of RBs in this draft class that could steal touches from Kamara. Conversely, new head coach Kellen Moore may opt to air it out more if they go QB early instead. There are several risk factors for Kamara heading into 2025 that make him a volatile option on draft day.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“The running back managers should fear the most as a bust is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs will certainly be a great player once again for the Detroit Lions, but I have a really difficult time seeing how he’s in the same tier as Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. David Montgomery will be healthy next season, and I see little reason they won’t continue to lean on Montgomery in the red zone. The fact that Gibbs was a top-3 RB just once and a top-10 RB in five of the 13 weeks Montgomery was fully healthy should be a red flag for fantasy managers projecting him in the top tier of running backs.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
“Chuba Hubbard should be atop the bust list for every fantasy manager heading into 2025. While 2024 was very impressive, Hubbard operated solo, with Miles Sanders being ineffective and Jonathan Brooks working his way back from a knee injury only to suffer another knee injury, ending his season. The Panthers went out and added former Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle this off-season, signaling they want to run with multiple backs in 2025. Hubbard’s 10 rushing scores also represent a statistical outlier, with his previous career high being 5. Is Hubbard a true double-digit touchdown threat, or is he closer to his career averages before 2024? Only time will tell, but he is someone that fantasy managers should fade until a clearer picture of who Hubbard really is becomes clear.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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