I like to think of NFL free agency a bit like Thanksgiving. It’s fun and exciting seeing all the activity and many teams overindulge on the available players, forgetting about any repercussions that may exist, just like those of us at the dinner table on our big day.
Once the feast is wrapped up, all the attention turns to Christmas (the NFL Draft). Often lost in the shuffle of players trading in one helmet for another is the impact, not only on those players, but on everybody else already on a roster.
- 2025 NFL Draft Guide
- 2025 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
- 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
- Dynasty Mock Draft Simulator
Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Let’s look at some of the biggest risers and followers in dynasty fantasy football following NFL Free Agency.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers
It’s debatable whether the Seahawks came out of free agency as winners or losers, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba can safely be declared a winner. Sam Darnold may or may not be an upgrade over Geno Smith, but based on last season’s performance, Darnold likely gives the offense more upside through the air.
Seattle captured the headlines again when they dealt DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh, a move that was followed by the acquisition of Cooper Kupp. So, what does all this movement mean? At this point in his career, Kupp is more of a complementary player than the 27-year-old Metcalf, who was still clinging to his plans of being the team’s No. 1 WR.
The truth is, however, that Smith-Njigba may have taken that honor from Metcalf last season after posting 1,130 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In the process, Smith-Njigba became a true playmaker, landing seventh among receivers in yards after the catch with 477.
Smith-Njigba secured the second-most route wins with 248, a highly impressive total for a second-year receiver. He did his damage as the No. 2 WR last season but is expected to climb to the top spot this year, and will do so with a quarterback that can elevate his play.
The Steelers tendered Jaylen Warren this offseason, signing him to a one-year contract and ensuring his return in 2025. Pittsburgh also added Kenneth Gainwell on a one-year deal, while letting former starting running back Najee Harris walk out the door. Harris eclipsed 250 carries in all four of his seasons with the Steelers, while Warren has never cleared 149 rush attempts.
Warren, however, has long been the more efficient runner and has appeared to be on the cusp of taking over the backfield on a few separate occasions. Despite a hamstring injury slowing Warren down to start the year, he finished with the ninth-most yards created per touch among running backs. The 5-foot-8, 207-pound back excels in the passing game, posting the sixth-most yards per route run among running backs.
Warren’s best work as a runner came in 2023, finishing with the sixth-best true yards per carry rate and tallying 784 yards on 149 carries. It’s unclear how big a workload the Steelers envision for Warren, but he’s big enough to handle lead back duties. The NFL Draft is loaded with running back talent. It’s fair to expect one of the prospects will end up in black and yellow, but Warren is the early favorite to lead the group. At just 26 years old, an Austin Ekeler-esque career arc is not out of the question.
The 49ers’ offense has long been a crowded one with many hungry mouths to feed. With Deebo Samuel traded to Washington and Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to play until mid-season, that leaves plenty of targets up for grabs. Of course, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings remain while Christian McCaffrey will return, but San Francisco may look to lighten McCaffrey’s workload amid his injury concerns.
The backfield has lightened up with Jordan Mason making his way to Minnesota and Elijah Mitchell joining the Chiefs after missing all of last season. The team added Demarcus Robinson at receiver, but no matter which way you slice it, Ricky Pearsall is in line for a major role, even if the 49ers add to the position through the draft.
Although his stat line of 31 receptions, 400 yards and three touchdowns doesn’t jump out, Persall’s rookie campaign was more impressive than what meets the eye. After getting shot before the start of the season, the first-round pick went on to miss the first six weeks of the season but was immediately involved upon his return. Through his first three games, Pearsall notched 132 yards and a score on 11 receptions, before his targets practically disappeared in the weeks that followed.
Once again, we saw him bounce back late in the season, posting 14 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns across the last two weeks of the season. It’s a small sample size, but over that span, Pearsall boasted an impressive 22% target share, 2.62 yards per route run and a 30% first-read target share.
Pearsall’s 182.4% true catch rate throughout the season was the best among all wide receivers. Jennings should also be a riser and may be the early favorite for the No. 1 WR role, but Pearsall possesses more upside and will have every opportunity to take the top spot before and after Aiyuk returns.
Cedric Tillman is an under-the-radar winner of free agency, as the Cleveland Browns were quiet on the wide receiver front. The club did not add any pass-catchers via free agency and seems content with letting Elijah Moore out the door, who remains a free agent. Jerry Jeudy will return as the team’s No. 1 WR, but outside of him, Tillman is far and away the most proven receiver.
Even in Tillman’s case, he has just five weeks of production across his first two NFL seasons, but those five weeks were loud. The only thing that slowed him down was a concussion that kept him inactive the rest of last season. In the four full games he played in Weeks 7-11 of last season, Tillman was the WR8 in PPR points per game with 302 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Tillman’s advanced metrics are pedestrian, but much of that is due to his pre-breakout role. Regardless, it would require the Browns making major moves in the draft for Tillman to slip below the No. 2 WR spot on the depth chart and out of the starting lineup.
The Jaguars made a few big moves at tight end during free agency. Not only did they release Evan Engram, but the team added Hunter Long and Johnny Mundt, both of whom profile as backup/blocking tight ends. The one constant in the room is Brenton Strange, who produced when called upon last season.
New head coach Liam Coen and general manager James Gladstone have spoken highly of Strange following a season of 411 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Those marks were good enough to compile the second-most receiving yards on the team. He also posted four games of 50+ yards.
Strange was impressive in his 10 starts, one of which included 10 catches on 11 targets. As scarce as tight end is outside of the elites, the 2023 second-round pick will have an opportunity to become a long-term fantasy option in an offense searching for answers.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Fallers
Coming off a career season in which he remained relatively healthy, J.K. Dobbins remains a free agent. He played in 13 games, the most since his rookie season, and rushed for 905 yards and nine touchdowns to go with 153 receiving yards. It was his first 1,000-yard season.
Dobbins did, however, miss four games with a knee sprain. It appears NFL teams remain concerned with his durability, despite his production last season. He will get an opportunity, likely after the NFL Draft, but teams view him as a short-term option, at best, which is how he should be viewed in fantasy.
Jalen McMillan was a trendy rookie sleeper who spent the majority of his first season as an afterthought in the Buccaneers’ offense. A couple of hamstring strains at different times during the season may have stalled his development, but he hit his stride late in the season.
Scott Hansen couldn’t keep McMillan’s name out of his mouth on NFL RedZone during the last five weeks as the rookie found the end zone on seven different occasions during that five-game stretch. He was the WR8 during that stretch and took fantasy football by storm. The issue is that McMillan was extremely reliant on touchdowns, failing to reach 100 yards in any game all season, and only topping 60 yards twice.
Many assumed the Bucs would let Chris Godwin go in free agency on the heels of McMillan’s breakout, but Godwin will return to Tampa Bay on a new three-year contract. Mike Evans might play forever, but even if he doesn’t, McMillan is best utilized as a hybrid slot, Z receiver, in a similar vein to Godwin. It’s no coincidence McMillan went on his run with Godwin on the sideline.
In hindsight, it appears the depth at running back in the upcoming NFL Draft may have impacted the free agent running back class. After snatching the Cowboys’ starting role and rushing for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns to go with 249 receiving yards and three more scores, Rico Dowdle was only able to land a one-year contract worth $2.75 million.
Dowdle will be 27 this offseason, but he has very little mileage on him and showed the ability to lead a backfield. Nonetheless, he will head to Carolina to work next to Chuba Hubbard before reassessing the market next offseason. Jonathon Brooks is expected to face a long recovery road, so Hubbard and Dowdle may be an effective tandem that could stay together in the future, but the days of hoping Dowdle can lead a backfield are likely over.
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