Players who tend to go earlier in drafts are often either safer bets given their track record or generally possess more upside. Nevertheless, a track record can be flawed if situations change or players age.

Meanwhile, a player who does not have a track record can shine in a new situation or with the right amount of opportunities. This piece explores two players who are likely to provide similar median outcomes in 2025 based on a mix of recent production, individual upside and general projection. However, their average draft position (ADP) costs are vastly different.

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Undervalued & Overvalued Draft Targets

*All stats referenced below are from 2024.

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU) | ADP: 44 vs. Luis Garcia Jr. (2B – WSH) | ADP: 137

Luis Garcia Jr. is a talented hitter whose speed is much less likely to fall off than the 34-year-old Jose Altuve. Of course, the run difference between Altuve and Garcia is massive but Garcia is 10 years younger and the Nationals’ offense has the potential for massive improvement.

Between Nathaniel Lowe‘s addition and the upward trajectory of top-flight youth like James Wood, Dylan Crews and CJ Abrams, Washington’s offense could be among the National League’s best, which would lead to more run production for Garcia.

Framber Valdez (SP – HOU) | ADP: 54 vs. Cristopher Sanchez (SP – PHI) | ADP: 175

Framber Valdez is a fantastic starting pitcher but his price is quite high for his limited strikeouts and good but not elite WHIP. Cristopher Sanchez’s WHIP in 2024 was closer to the league average but it was inflated by a .313 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is higher than the past two seasons in which he did not cross .285.

While Valdez does have a longer track record as a starter, he did deal with suspicious elbow soreness/inflammation last year. Sanchez’s arm is seemingly “fresher” which should lead to better odds for a full season of pitching.

Anthony Santander (OF – TOR) | ADP: 61 vs. JJ Bleday (OF – ATH) | ADP: 256

The 2024 counting stat lines will not shine brightly for JJ Bleday as he paled in comparison to Anthony Santander. However, they are close in Statcast metrics and there have been substantive changes for both hitters this season, which should adjust their approximate value.

Santander is now playing for the Toronto Blue Jays in a similar home park but worse overall offense. The Orioles ranked third in team wRC+ last season (partly due to Santander’s contributions) while the Blue Jays ranked 13th.

Meanwhile, the Athletics are moving from their extreme pitcher’s park in Oakland to Sacramento’s Minor League stadium, which is part of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Between the possibility of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. requesting a trade and the Athletics’ youth movement, we could see the Blue Jays have a worse offense overall.

Neither Bleday nor Santander will carry your fantasy team’s average this season but their counting stats may be mirrored reflections.

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) | ADP: 70 vs. Nathan Eovaldi (SP – TEX) | ADP: 206

Nathan Eovaldi is four years older than Aaron Nola and comes with a significant injury history. On the mound, though, they were equals last season. The risk is baked into the veteran Rangers’ price while Nola is often hit-or-miss.

Oddly enough, Nola struggles in “odd” years while thriving in “even” years. This trend would be foolish to blindly follow but given he is pricey as a top-75 overall player, it may be best to view this “odd” year from afar.

Nola’s strikeouts have dipped in each season since 2020 and his WHIP in 2024 was the highest since 2019. Eovaldi may not offer the same upside as Nola in peak form but there is little downside at his cost.

Cal Raleigh (C – SEA) | ADP: 82 vs. Shea Langeliers (C – ATH) | ADP: 140

Cal Raleigh is an awesome hitter but Shea Langeliers was not far off in 2024. Langeliers, like the aforementioned Bleday, will be playing his home games within the hitter-friendly confines of Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park. Oakland Coliseum ranked seventh-worst for hitting via Statcast park factors and fifth-worst via FanGraphs’ park factors.

Between the move to a better home stadium (for offense) and the improving A’s lineup, Langeliers’ upside is even higher than Raleigh’s this season.

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