You don’t want to play it safe throughout your fantasy baseball draft, but it’s important to have reliable assets to mix in with your high-upside, but risky, draft picks. Here are a few of the safest fantasy baseball draft picks you can make, which will allow you to target upside elsewhere in your draft.
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Safe Fantasy Baseball Draft Picks
It’s critical to mix reliable fantasy baseball contributors into lineups. Not every selection can be a boom-or-bust pick. Instead, gamers should complement their risky picks with safer options. The following five players can be counted on for a certain production level and statistical contributions.
Corey Seager (SS – TEX) | Hitter #32/41.3 ADP
Corey Seager had an ugly .242 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in his first year with the Rangers in 2022. Beyond his BABIP fluctuation, Seager had consistent batted-ball data, power production, walk rates and strikeout rates in the Lone Star State. The following table shows his stats from 2022 through 2024 (via FanGraphs):
Seager is a four-category contributor who's an appealing target for someone with speed and/or already has pitching in the bank through the first two or three rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
Logan Webb (SP - SF) | Pitcher #31/88.3 ADP
Logan Webb is a workhorse. He also doesn't eat up innings at a low quality. Among qualified pitchers since 2022, Webb is first in innings pitched (613), 16th in ERA (3.22), fourth in xFIP (3.18), tied for ninth in SIERA (3.44) and tied for 29th in WHIP (1.15).
Webb hasn't had a massive strikeout rate, but his 20.5% strikeout rate last season was adequate with the rest of his profile. Furthermore, the veteran's pitch modeling is still stellar. In 2024, he had 104 stuff+, 106 location+ and 109 pitching+. There aren't signs of an imminent decline for Webb. He's perfect to mix into a fantasy baseball rotation, with pitchers boasting elite ratios for a low-inning ceiling.
Alec Bohm (1B, 3B - PHI) | Hitter #94/154.5 ADP
Alec Bohm doesn't blow anyone away with his power. Yet, he's mashed 20 and 15 taters in 611 and 606 plate appearances, respectively, in the previous two years. Bohm offsets his modest power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 1,217 plate appearances since 2023) and a .277 batting average in the previous two years. He might also have untapped batting-average potential, evidenced by his .290 expected batting average (xBA) in 2023 and .288 xBA in 2024.
In addition to helping in batting average and chipping in some homers the last two years, Bohm has produced 97 and 97 RBI and stolen nine bases (four in 2023 and five in 2024). The corner infielder should hit somewhere between third and fifth in Philadelphia's lineup this year, insulating his RBI outlook but possibly capping his run production in the mid-60s to mid-70s.
Luis Arraez (1B, 2B - SD) | Hitter #103/174.3 ADP
Luis Arraez hit a career-high 10 homers in 617 plate appearances in 2023 and stole a career-high nine bases in 150 games and 672 plate appearances last year. Those marks aren't exciting.
However, Arraez's stolen bases could be on the rise. He stole only 11 bases in his first 569 games and 2,334 plate appearances in the Majors before swiping nine in 117 games and 524 plate appearances after the Padres traded for him last season.
Arraez attempted 12 steals and was caught just three times with the Friars. He has average speed, so manager Mike Shildt might continue to let Arraez run if he maintains a success rate of 70% or better.
Still, if Arraez dips back to just a few stolen bases, he's a safe selection at his average draft position (ADP) for batting average-needy gamers. Arraez is an annual threat to win his league's batting title after hitting .314, .354, .317, .294, .321 and .334 in his career. In 1,892 plate appearances since 2022, Arraez has a drool-inducing .328 batting average with a 5.8% walk rate, 5.6% strikeout rate and a .371 on-base percentage (OBP). Arraez's on-base prowess makes him an ideal leadoff hitter for the Padres and an asset for runs.
Nick Pivetta (SP - SD) | Pitcher #82/204.3 ADP
Safe players don't have to be bereft of upside. Nick Pivetta is a reliable strikeout and WHIP helper. Pivetta had a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 28.9% strikeout rate in the previous two years, with a 1.12 WHIP and 1.13 WHIP.
Pivetta also had a 4.04 ERA and 4.14 ERA in 2023 and 2024, respectively. However, his ERA estimators were significantly better. In 2023, Pivetta had a 3.98 xERA, 3.55 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. Last season, he had a 3.51 xERA, 3.50 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA. Pivetta's ERA estimators suggest he was unlucky.
Now, Pivetta is getting a park factor upgrade. According to our park factors, Fenway Park is tied for the fourth-highest park factor for runs (1.093). PETCO Park has the second-lowest park factor for runs (0.889). At worst, Pivetta can help fantasy squads in strikeouts and WHIP with a low-4.00s ERA. However, Pivetta could pitch closer to his ERA estimators in his new pitcher-friendly ballpark, making him a safe pick for two categories with the upside to outperform his fantasy baseball ADP drastically.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.