Drafting pitchers in fantasy baseball is a lot like playing Minesweeper. The game presents a board with many clean spaces but also several bombs. Avoiding those bombs early and often is crucial to achieving the final goal of winning. Minesweeper gives you an idea of where those bombs are but they can be tricky to pinpoint as they often pop out from unexpected regions.

With pitchers, there is a general rule of thumb: Anyone can get hurt at any time. Nevertheless, when a pitcher has suffered a significant injury in the past, we can treat that as a precursor to another, more severe injury. Elbow and shoulder injuries are essentially death rattles for most players but especially pitchers. If you can identify whose injuries are significant enough to lead to another, you can infer who is best avoided in formats that weigh so heavily on the final few playoff weeks. Below are five pitchers to avoid in 2025.

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Pitchers to Avoid

Max Fried (SP – NYY) | ADP: 80

Gerrit Cole passed the SP1 torch to Max Fried after his Tommy John surgery announcement, but the Yankees de facto ace may not carry this title for long. In 2023 and 2024, Max Fried was diagnosed with “forearm” injuries, which resulted in separate Injured List (IL) stints. Fried missed one month of action in 2024 and three months in 2023.

Forearm injuries typically preclude elbow ligament issues, particularly the UCL. Pitchers can play through minor strains with rest and rehab but the damage is not reversed. The production he does provide while healthy should remain among the league’s best given his performance post-IL the past two seasons. However, Fried’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (K-BB) in 2024 (15.3%) was the lowest we have seen since 2020 (13.8%). He is a massive re-injury risk this season and better left to fall.

Shane McClanahan (SP – TB) | ADP: 123

Shane McClanahan is an incredibly talented pitcher but he missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has pitched just 4.2 innings in spring training. The Tampa Bay Rays are very conservative with pitchers returning from injury (see: Shane Baz) and could limit his innings throughout the season’s first month or two. He could also have an overall innings cap on the season.

Also, McClanahan faces the possibility of a downtick in performance while he re-adjusts to MLB speed and a new stadium. Tropicana Field was one of baseball’s best pitching environments. The move to George M. Steinbrenner Field is a massive downgrade for pitchers as the dimensions are more favorable for batters and the open air could create wind gusts pushing the ball out. This is a downgrade for all Tampa Bay starting pitchers but notably the most expensive one in drafts who is returning from surgery.

Bryan Woo (SP – SEA) | ADP: 132

Bryan Woo, like Fried, has dealt with multiple forearm/elbow issues between 2023 and 2024. Woo was listed with a forearm injury in 2023 and an elbow injury in 2024. He underwent an MRI last season but it came back clean. Despite this, we should fade him in fantasy baseball drafts as the risk of another injury is elevated for players who have already suffered arm issues.

Woo is undeniably an ace in the making given his stuff. His 2.89 ERA in 2024 was backed by a sub-3.00 xERA and 18.6% K-BB. He should remain a productive starting pitcher while on the mound, but if you play in head-to-head leagues with playoffs, I would not expect him around by then.

Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL) | ADP: 150

Reynaldo Lopez is another forearm injury case from 2024. However, he also suffered a shoulder injury in September and was shut down for the season. Lopez converted back to a starter in 2024 after only pitching in relief since 2021. His 135.2 innings pitched last season were the most he has thrown since 2019.

This spring has been rough on Lopez as he has more walks than strikeouts but is somehow managing an ERA below 4.00. Typically, spring training stats can be ignored but for a player like Lopez, who ended the season hurt, we should take note given his decreased velocity. His fastball is nearly three miles per hour (MPH) below his 2024 average but that could be him ramping up. Fade Lopez in fantasy drafts unless you can get a significant discount on his current average draft position (ADP).

Pete Fairbanks (RP – TB) | ADP: 193

Pete Fairbanks’ average fastball velocity in 2024 was the lowest of his career. He was still an effective reliever despite this and accrued 23 saves in 46 games but his ERA (3.57) was his highest since 2021 (3.59). Fairbanks’ fastball averaged 99+ MPH from 2022 through 2023 when he was at his best.

His 2024 ERA was solid on the surface but backed by a mediocre 4.04 xERA. His SIERA and xFIP were just below 4.00 — not ideal for a closer. If Fairbanks struggles early, he could lose his role on an improved Rays team that should make a playoff push in 2025.

Fairbanks also comes with significant injury concerns as he has missed time throughout his career with a litany of arm and upper body issues. Set-up man Edwin Uceta was elite in 2024 and could usurp Fairbanks with another injury or lengthy struggle.

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