Looking to get a leg up on your 2025 fantasy football draft? Identifying early overvalued and undervalued players based on Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) can give you the edge you need. To help you stay ahead of the curve, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros – some of the most accurate fantasy football experts in the industry. These analysts have pinpointed which players are being drafted too early or slipping too far, allowing you to build smarter, more value-driven rosters. Let’s break down the early draft targets you need to know.
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Early Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks
Who is one overvalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be avoiding in redraft drafts and why?
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“Kyren Williams may be overrated for 2025 fantasy football drafts due to his injury history, which has already disrupted his availability in past seasons and raises concerns about his durability moving forward. His production heavily relies on the Rams’ offensive scheme, and any changes in coaching or play-calling could diminish his output. The step-back in efficiency we saw from Williams last year could be a sign of things to come with the touches eventually wearing him down and leading to more snaps off the field. The emergence of rookie Blake Corum in Los Angeles could lead to a timeshare backfield, cutting into Williams’ touches and reducing his fantasy ceiling. His breakout 2023 season may have set unrealistic expectations, as defenses are now more prepared to game-plan against him. Lastly, his receiving stats are modest compared to other top-tier running backs, limiting his PPR upside in a league where dual-threat RBs often dominate.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
“I’m avoiding Kyren Williams at cost for redraft leagues, who is currently valued as a borderline RB1 in ECR’s ranks. Kyren needs an insane workload to hit RB1 numbers every year. His 0.76 PPR points per opportunity ranked just 36th amongst RBs in 2024. If LA drafts a rookie RB or Blake Corum makes Year 2 strides, Kyren’s workload will shrink, and he’ll see a big drop in fantasy production.”
– Jim Moorman (Dynasty Football Factory)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
“It wasn’t long ago that Baker Mayfield’s days as a starting NFL quarterback appeared to be numbered. Now, his ECR is QB6. That’s far too expensive for a player who looks destined to be freight-trained by regression. Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year. He’d never had even 30 TD passes in any other season. Mayfield also had 378 rushing yards. He’d never had even 200 rushing yards in any previous season. And for a second straight season, Mayfield will be working with a new playcaller. Each of his last two — first Dave Canales, then Liam Coen — landed head-coaching gigs elsewhere. Maybe Mayfield will land on his feet again, but he seems like a poor investment at his current price.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“I can’t pay the WR13 price tag for Tyreek Hill. For an aging wide receiver that’s another year older, it’s too steep. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 20.2% target share, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 23.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Hill could return low-end WR2 production in 2025, but it’s equally possible that he either deals with injury or, because of age, dips into the high-end WR3 production range.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I think the days of Tyreek Hill being an elite fantasy WR could be over. He was WR18 last year in PPR while Tua was out for 4 weeks with yet another concussion. Is Tyreek good enough to be a WR1? Of course, he is. But Miami’s offense is abysmal without Tua under center, and I personally don’t want to rely on Tua being healthy. I would much rather have receivers like JSN, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and Garrett Wilson, who are all being drafted after Tyreek.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“This one is easy. Breece Hall at RB12 and Pick 27 overall is a must-avoid. Hall finished the 2024 campaign as RB17 in 1/2 PPR scoring while playing 16 games. He is in his third season but has played only two full seasons, missing much of his rookie season due to injury. In those seasons, he has failed to rush for over 1,000 yards and has been keeping his value afloat with his receiving work and touchdowns. Last season saw him regress in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and total touchdowns despite being one of the only weapons in the Jet’s offense. He heads into 2025 with an offensive line that is a mess and transitions from the statue-like Aaron Rodgers to dual-threat Justin Fields. Fields is guaranteed to eat up some of his rushing volumes and will tank his targets in the receiving game and his goal-line carries. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Fields helps Hall meet his 27th overall ranking.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
“I’m not sure quite what the consensus is thinking with ranking Puka Nacua as the 4th-best WR. He’s had injury issues, both in college and last year. Puka’s best games usually came when Cooper Kupp was injured. And while it’s true that Kupp is gone, the Rams signed star WR Davante Adams to a two-year 46 million-dollar contract in free agency. Folks, they’re not paying him 46 million to be a decoy. Ringo would rather have Adams, especially at his cheaper cost, because one, Ringo is cheap; and two, Puka’s high price tag just makes him nauseous (sorry- I had to), haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
“There can be outliers, but the age cliff is clear for RB. Derrick Henry has stood at the edge of that cliff for years and lorded over it. He was PFFs number-one ranked rusher in 2024, tallying over 2,100 yards on the ground through the playoffs. There is no reason to fade him except for the usual predictions he’s always disproven. He’s aging, doesn’t catch passes, and has amassed over 2,700 touches in the NFL (approximately 1,000,000 touches lifetime). Henry sitting at pre-draft RB4 says people have finally given up trying to fade him. That makes it just the time to fade. Will it work? No, it never (has). I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but. . . but it might work (this time).”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
“After six years with the Seattle Seahawks, DK Metcalf (WR24 in the rankings, 53rd overall) got traded to the Steelers this offseason. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh currently doesn’t have a starting-caliber quarterback on the roster. More importantly, Metcalf is coming off the worst fantasy performance of his career since his rookie year. Last season, he finished as the WR32, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, it was the first time the veteran had fewer than six receiving touchdowns in a year. Between Arthur Smith’s play-calling and the quarterback situation, Metcalf is on my do-not-draft list. There are several wide receivers who are lower in the rankings that I would draft over him, including Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, and Rome Odunze.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
“I can’t get myself to draft Isiah Pacheco as the RB25 and 65th player overall. Before breaking his leg, he was on track to have another great fantasy year. Unfortunately, after his injury, he returned to a committee backfield with the reunited Kareem Hunt. Over this eight-game span (including playoffs), he had over 10 carries in two games and didn’t have more than five in each of the three playoff games. This offseason, they did not only re-sign Hunt but also signed Elijah Mitchell to a 3.5 million dollar deal. Everything points to this backfield splitting touches with Kareem Hunt in the driver’s seat for goalline carries. As a result, I’m avoiding this backfield at all costs.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
“The consensus RB1 in 2025 will be Saquon Barkley after arguably the greatest season we have ever seen from the position. He went over 2,000 rushing yards as the only skill player to average more than 20 points per game in half-PPR. The Eagles’ rusher led the NFL in touches with nearly 500…running effectively behind the league’s best OL. But as was the case with Christian McCaffrey in 2023 and many RBs before him, leading the NFL in touches by such a vast margin is essentially the kiss of death for RBs the following year. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Brock Bowers (TE – LV)
“This may come in as a shocker, but I’ll likely be avoiding Brock Bowers in early round 2. Bowers is a fantastic talent for the tight end position, but that early in drafts may be risky. The addition of Geno Smith may get the passing game to spread the ball around more than under the previous quarterbacks. I’d expect the Raiders to add to their offense a running back (who can make the run game useful) and another receiver to take away targets. Bowers at ECR14 is drafting him like he is guaranteed another 150 target season.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
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