NFL free agency always brings chaos, reshaping team rosters and shaking up fantasy football values. Some players land in ideal situations, primed to break out, while others see their stock plummet due to new competition or unfavorable circumstances.
As we gear up for the 2025 fantasy season, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown break down the biggest winners and losers from this year’s free agency period — highlighting which players gained the most value and who took the biggest hits.
Whether you’re preparing for upcoming best ball drafts or looking ahead to dynasty moves, these takeaways will help you stay ahead of the competition.
Let’s dive in.
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NFL Free Agency Losers: Fantasy Football
Quarterbacks
Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard said in February that Anthony Richardson would face an open competition for the starting quarterback job in 2025. Ballard made good on his word by signing Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal — an amount that suggests Jones has a very real chance to win the job.
There’s a case to be made that things could have turned out worse for Richardson. The Colts could have signed Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson — veteran quarterbacks with far better track records than Jones.
Still, it’s hard to see the silver lining if you’re holding Richardson in a dynasty league. Even if he’s able to beat out Jones for the Starting job, Richardson is likely to be on a short leash in the regular season.
In other bad news for Richardson, the Colts lost two starting offensive linemen in free agency — guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly both signed with the Vikings.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
Sam Darnold was the fantasy QB9 through 17 weeks on the back of great passing efficiency in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense. With the Vikings, Darnold posted career-highs across the board, finishing seventh in yards per pass attempt and sixth in completion percentage above expectation (+3.2%).
But Darnold’s transition to the Seattle Seahawks presents more challenges than opportunities for fantasy managers to take advantage of. For starters, the supporting cast is a massive downgrade.
The Seahawks have undergone significant offensive changes, including the trade of star wide receiver DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the release of reliable wideout Tyler Lockett.
This raises major questions about the quality of Darnold’s receiving options outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, potentially impacting his fantasy production, which is heavily dependent on passing efficiency without high-end passing volume.
They added Cooper Kupp which is nice, but he has missed an average of six games over the last three seasons. And his production has taken a nose dive, creating doubt about how much he can actually help Darnold (even if he is by default an upgrade based on the current state of the WR room).
Seattle’s run-heavy offensive system will also play a crucial role in Darnold’s fantasy outlook, and it’s hard to say it’s anything but another factor he will have to overcome.
Klint Kubiak had his moments in New Orleans (the first two weeks), but injuries quickly derailed the Saints’ offense. To his credit, he brought innovation to the Saints’ offense in the use of motion and play action. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (also now with the Seahawks) was a legitimate deep threat despite being signed mid-season. Derek Carr ranked fourth in completion rate over expectation and 11th in EPA (expected points added)/dropback — both superior to Darnold.
Darnold also has experience with Kubiak, as they overlapped with the 49ers in 2023.
It’s possible that if and when the Seahawks can bolster their offensive line and provide adequate protection, Darnold could perform at a high level. Carr had his moments in this offense last season.
But there are too many new/unknown reductions to suggest Darnold can replicate his 2024 efforts. The Vikings were the perfect spot for a quarterback. The Seahawks… are not (even if it’s not the worst).
— Andrew Erickson
Running Backs
It’s not that the Houston Texans signed a running back who might steal carries from Mixon; it’s that an already feeble Texans offensive line has gotten even weaker.
Houston’s offensive line was among the NFL’s worst last season, and it seemed inevitable the Texans would revamp that unit in free agency and the draft. The Texans signed 33-year-old guard Laken Tomlinson. But they also traded away two starting linemen, sending tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders and guard Kenyon Green to the Eagles.
Tunsil was guilty of too many false-start penalties last year, but he was also far and away the best offensive lineman the Texans had — and arguably their only above-average lineman.
The Texans could still sign another lineman or two in free agency. They could also bolster their offensive line via the draft. Still, it’s alarming that Houston’s offensive line has gotten worse so far this offseason.
A weak offensive line bodes ill for Mixon’s chances of remaining a top fantasy running back. It’s also going to make it difficult for Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season in which he faced the highest pressure rate of any quarterback in the league.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
This is a nightmare landing spot for Rico Dowdle, with entrenched starter Chuba Hubbard still slated to lead the way for Carolina’s ground game in 2025. Last year, after Week 11, once Dowdle became the Dallas Cowboys’ workhorse (60% or higher snaps in each game), he was the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22 touches and 108 total yards per game.
Dowdle isn’t seeing anywhere close to that role in 2025. He now enters the high-end handcuff conversation this season, which is a massive value dip for a back that could have easily posted RB2 numbers again this year had he returned to Dallas.
— DBro
Wide Receivers
Some headwinds were keeping George Pickens from reaching his fantasy potential last season. The Steelers had the NFL’s fifth run-heaviest offense in 2024. With Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback, the Steelers ranked 26th in passing yardage and 20th in completion percentage. But at least Pickens was Pittsburgh’s undisputed No. 1 receiver.
That’s no longer the case.
The Steelers acquired DK Metcalf in a trade with the Seahawks. Metcalf has had three 1,000-yard seasons and has never finished with fewer than 900 yards in any of his six NFL campaigns.
Pickens hasn’t been the most mature fellow early in his NFL career. It will be interesting to see how he reacts in games where Metcalf earns significantly more targets. For that matter, Metcalf has occasionally expressed displeasure when he felt as if he wasn’t getting enough targets. It will be interesting to see if these two — who have both worn jersey No. 14, by the way – can play nicely together. (It was announced Metcalf would wear jersey No. 4 with the Steelers)
Pittsburgh has also failed to resolve its quarterback situation. Fields and Wilson both became free agents. Fields has signed with the New York Jets. Wilson remains unsigned but has met with the Cleveland Browns and was scheduled to meet with the New York Giants.
With added target competition and an uncertain quarterback situation, Pickens’ fantasy stock has fallen.
— Pat Fitzmaurice
There was a chance Jalen McMillan was going to enter the 2025 season as the undisputed No. 2 WR in the Buccaneers’ offense. Alas, try as the Patriots did to pry Chris Godwin away from the state of Florida, they were unsuccessful (despite an offer of nearly $20 million more).
Godwin signed a three-year, $66 million contract extension with $44 million guaranteed with Tampa Bay.
This makes McMillan’s path to volume a much steeper hill to climb, although this won’t go unnoticed by his dip in 2025 fantasy football ADP. The former Washington Huskies wideout wasn’t much of a factor to start the season when Godwin was on an absolute tear.
But I don’t hate the idea of buying the dip on a talented young receiver like McMillan. Mike Evans will be turning 32 this season. McMillan can play inside/outside and Godwin is coming off a serious ankle injury.
— Andrew Erickson
Honorable mention:
Tight Ends
I was hoping that after getting his rookie season squashed by Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott could be heading for the Trey McBride breakout sophomore season campaign. Sadly, that doesn’t look to be in Sinnott’s cards, with Ertz returning as a trusted weapon for Jayden Daniels.
I’ll keep the light on for Sinnott in dynasty as he remains a young and very talented player, but for his 2025 redraft value (assuming Ertz stays healthy), this has been a worst-case scenario realized.
— DBro
If the newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins captures any substantial role for the Baltimore Ravens in 2025, I’d imagine it’s in the red zone. This would be bad news for Mark Andrews, considering how touchdown-dependent he was last season.
Andrews scored as many times (11) as his previous two seasons combined. There are a lot of red flags for the 29-year-old entering the final year of his contract. Isaiah Likely is breathing down his neck for targets in the tight end room and Andrews has been heavily rumored as a potential salary cap casualty.
— Andrew Erickson
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