Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week and a wonderful season so far as we hone in on the playoffs. It’s been a solid season and I hope to continue riding that wave with everyone following along.
If you play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a six-game or eight-game slate tonight, depending on your preferred site. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $11,400
Who else would lead this article other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? The total is creeping around 240 and Gilgeous-Alexander will see nearly a 40% usage rate. That’s already looking good.
Memphis has been a bottom-10 defensive unit since the All-Star Break, which is an improvement for them, and they still play at a top-five pace in the league. I don’t feel like I have to go into the weeds here with 50 DraftKings points feeling like a floor performance. Gilgeous-Alexander has shown the capacity for 70+ points.
Donovan Mitchell (PG, SG – CLE)
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $8,600
Apologies for multiple point guards to start the day, but Donovan Mitchell is simply in too great a position to pass up. Not to be confused with the other DM, Davion Mitchell, who makes for a great value play tonight, Donovan projects for around 45 fantasy points with a much higher ceiling.
The Spurs’ defense is the second-worst in the NBA over their last 20 games. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace of play. After coming off two relatively dud outings and resting for injury management, I’m happy to go back to the well and buy the dip here with Mitchell, who should get a bit higher usage with a banged-up Cavs squad. Considering his usage is already over 31%, he is in line for a fine play.
Bam Adebayo (PF, C – MIA)
- DraftKings: $8,300
- FanDuel: $8,400
Miami is going to be a highly rostered team, and I’m leading the charge with Bam Adebayo. Atlanta is a top-five-paced team with a bottom-10 ranked defense. The usage is isolated on the Heat and Adebayo projects for around 34 minutes while seeing around a 25% usage rate.
Adebayo’s rostership is going to be high, but he offers a ceiling north of 60 points, which is an absolute steal with the mid-$8,000 price tag. Even projecting him for a more modest 43 DraftKings points still makes him a solid play. I expect more from him tonight.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
Jarrett Allen (C, PF – CLE)
- DraftKings: $6,800
- FanDuel: $7,400
With Evan Mobley out, Jarrett Allen gets one of the biggest boosts offensively in terms of efficiency and production. In the last two games Mobley sat, Allen’s minutes jumped to over 30. You can expect him to have around a 20% usage rate. It also helps that Cleveland is getting one of the friendliest matchups out there right now.
The Spurs’ defense ranks second-worst since the All-Star break while remaining a pace-up spot for Cleveland. San Antonio has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers — an increased number over their last 15 games.
Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)
- DraftKings: $9,900
- FanDuel: $9,800
Despite a relatively lower total around 218, Paolo Banchero has a clear floor here with a 33% usage rate in a pace-up spot against the seventh-fastest-paced Dallas Mavericks. Anthony Davis is forever questionable and Dallas has one of the least intimidating defenses out there with their 26th ranking since the All-Star break.
Banchero is coming off a 50 fantasy point outing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs it back tonight. If you don’t want to spend as much on Banchero but want to roster a Magic player, Franz Wagner is a fine pivot.
Tyler Herro (PG – MIA)
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,300
Tyler Herro projects for around 43 fantasy points tonight in the pace-up spot against Atlanta. I’ve mentioned the Heat are going to be highly rostered, including Herro, but he might end up being a decent small-field GPP option.
Herro’s not as consistent as the normal cash game options I usually recommend, but given the matchup, I’m comfortable with it.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Chet Holmgren (PF, C – OKC)
- DraftKings: $7,500
- FanDuel: $7,700
As early rostership projection rolls in, Chet Holmgren only seems to be getting around 10-12% projected rostership across most slates, which is criminally low against this Memphis squad. The Grizzlies have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in their last 30 matches. I expect them to struggle with the Thunder’s frontcourt.
When Holmgren starts, he’s out there for around 32 minutes. The Thunder should be getting a lot of points tonight. Holmgren has shown his 50+ DraftKings points ceiling. With such low rostership, he makes for a great option with his forward/center dual eligibility.
Tyrese Haliburton (PG – IND)
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $9,200
Indianapolis is priced up given the Wizards’ matchup. It appears rostership is going elsewhere on the slate. From a pure projections standpoint, Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t look like a great play, averaging around 42 fantasy points per game and priced up to $8,700 on DraftKings. But over the last three games, he’s averaged 50 fantasy points per game.
The boom potential is real against the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opponents this year and the third-most to opposing point guards. There’s a chance this game is over early and Haliburton gets his 40 DraftKings points into the night. With around a 10-12% rostership projection, I’m willing to bet his boom potential is much higher than that. I’m willing to play the leverage.
Dyson Daniels (PG, SG – ATL)
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $8,000
Dyson Daniels is flying under the radar on DraftKings as a solid play projecting for around 13-15% rostership. I honestly feel like that will come down a bit with injury news dropping and more people going for a stars and scrubs approach over the $7,000 range of players, such as Daniels.
Last game alone, Daniels showed his ceiling ability with a 54 DraftKings outing. His price dropped since then. As a bring-back option against Miami, whose defense isn’t spectacular, I’m happy throwing Daniels in some GPPs.
NBA DFS Value Plays
AJ Johnson (PG, SG – WSH)
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,800
I usually don’t love Washington Wizards options, but this is one of the rare options. While the injury report is still to come out, AJ Johnson should get the start again. He has averaged over 28 minutes a night in his last four games. That’s closer to 30 in the last three matchups.
Johnson has scored over 30 DraftKings points in one of those matchups. He has the chance to do so again tonight. Johnson provides a decent usage rate against a decently friendly DFS matchup in Indy.
Bismack Biyombo (C – SAS)
- DraftKings: $3,400
- FanDuel: $4,400
Some simple game theory/math/what have you options to play instead of looking at players and matchups and all that jazz sometimes is simply comparing DraftKings and FanDuel prices. There are bound to be differences with how they do roster construction and overall budget, but when there is a $1,000 price difference, that’s usually a good sign someone is wrong.
Bismack Biyombo has played 24+ minutes in two straight games. He goes up against an Evan Mobley-less Cleveland, who is only going to help his chances for a ceiling-type performance.
De’Andre Hunter (SF, PF – CLE)
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $4,800
Assuming De’Andre Hunter slots in the starting spot in place of Evan Mobley, it’s easy to see why he will become a highly rostered, high-value play. With such a big spread, Hunter can eat away at the sub-par Spurs defense while seeing the floor for around 30 minutes.
At a sub-$5,000 tag with around a 20% usage rate and over 30 minutes of play, Hunter makes for one of the best plays on the slate today, assuming he starts.
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