While the early rounds are where leagues can be lost with busts, the middle and later rounds are where leagues can be won by drafting players who outperform their average draft position (ADP).
To qualify as a mid-round pitcher and not an early-round selection or a late-round dart, the following pitchers have a fantasy baseball ADP between the 10th and 15th rounds in 12-team mixed leagues.
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Mid-Round Pitching Values to Draft
Joe Ryan (SP – MIN) | Pitcher #41/110.3 ADP
Joe Ryan made only 23 starts, totaling 135 innings last year because his season was cut short on August 7th, 2024, with a strain of the teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder. Ryan was sharp in his spring training debut and is tracking toward a healthy start to his 2025 campaign.
According to FanGraphs, Ryan had a rock-solid 3.60 ERA in 2024 and career bests for xERA (2.87), xFIP (3.44) and SIERA (3.28). The righty also had a 0.99 WHIP, 4.3% walk rate, 27.3% strikeout rate, 29.6 CSW%, 106 stuff+, 108 location+ and 112 pitching+. Ryan’s underlying data was superb. He’d likely be picked two to three rounds earlier in fantasy baseball drafts if he finished 2024 healthy. His upside is worth taking the health-related gamble on slightly earlier than his ADP.
Shane McClanahan (SP – TB) | Pitcher #47/122.5 ADP
Shane McClanahan had his second Tommy John surgery in August 2023 and spent the entire 2024 season rehabbing. Thus, the Rays didn’t rush him back. The lefty will start on Opening Day for them this season.
McClanahan has pitched 4.2 innings in two scoreless spring training starts this year. The 27-year-old lefty had excellent pitch metrics in his start on March 6th.
In addition to his encouraging pitch metrics, McClahanan has tallied a 28.3 SwStr% and 37.7 CSW% this spring. He was an elite starting pitcher before undergoing his second Tommy John procedure. Navigating a likely innings limit this year is worth taking him a bit earlier than his ADP.
McClanahan is also an ideal player to use as an example to understand the difference between fantasy baseball rankings and draft advice. McClanahan is ranked behind players I’d pick him ahead of in my rankings. An innings limit will likely hurt where he finishes in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric.
However, gamers can stream to make up the difference in innings between McClanahan and some of the pitchers I’d rank ahead of him. For instance, I expect to cobble together a better cumulative line from McClanahan and streamers filling the innings gap between the lefty and pitchers such as Sonny Gray or Zac Gallen, who project to throw more innings than Tampa Bay’s Opening Day starter.
Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA) | Pitcher #57/147.5 ADP
Like McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara is returning after missing the entire 2024 season while recovering and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Miami’s ace had his Tommy John procedure in October of 2023, and he was already pumping 97 to 99 miles per hour (MPH) cheddar last September. Alcantara also reached triple digits on the radar gun in spring training on the following pitch.
In four starts spanning 8.1 innings in spring training, Alcantara has a 0.00 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 6.3% walk rate, 25% strikeout rate, 54.5% groundball rate, 12.8 SwStr% and 24.8 CSW%. A rock-solid spring and premium heater have been encouraging signs for Alcantara to return to his pre-surgery form.
He was a front-of-the-rotation workhorse before he went under the knife. Alcantara won the 2022 National League Cy Young Award after spinning a 2.28 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 3.29 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA in 32 starts lasting 228.2 innings.
Alcantara had his worst season as a full-time starter in the Majors in 2023, but that might have been because his elbow was a literal ticking time bomb, ready to explode. In 100 starts from 2020 through 2022, Alcantara had the following stats:
- 661 innings
- 3.13 ERA
- 3.59 xFIP
- 3.79 SIERA
- 1.09 WHIP
- 6.1% Walk Rate
- 22.5% Strikeout Rate
- 12.4 SwStr%
- 27.4 CSW%
- 111 Stuff+
- 104 Location+
- 115 Pitching+
Returning to that form would make Alcantara a steal at his ADP, even if he faced an innings limit. However, Alcantara might be less likely to have his innings restricted this year than the aforementioned McClanahan. First, Alcantara hasn’t had multiple Tommy John surgeries on his throwing elbow. Second, reportedly won’t be on an early-season innings limit, despite a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that said the contrary.
Third, the projection models are optimistic about Alcantara’s outlook for innings in 2025. THE BAT (170 innings), ATC (170 innings), Steamer (189 innings), FanGraphs Depth Charts (190 innings) and OOPSY (191 innings) project Alcantara to pitch at least 170 innings this year and up to 191. Furthermore, the Zeile Consensus Projections have tabbed Alcantara for 172.4 innings. It wouldn’t be outrageous to pick Alcantara approximately 20 picks ahead of his ADP.
Cristopher Sanchez (SP – PHI) | Pitcher #65/176.3 ADP
Cristopher Sanchez carries no caveats for injury. Instead, Philadelphia’s 28-year-old lefty is merely a criminally underrated fantasy baseball option.
Sanchez broke out in 2023 for the Phillies, successfully moving into Philadelphia’s rotation after primarily working in their bullpen the previous year. He had 18 starts in 19 appearances, amassing 99.1 innings. In 2024, Sanchez validated his breakout across 31 starts and 181.2 innings.
Last year, Sanchez had a 3.32 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 5.8% walk rate and 20.3% strikeout rate. The lefty does an elite job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 57.1% groundball rate in his career and a 57.4% groundball rate in 2024. Last year, Sanchez also had sparkling pitch modeling, with 104 stuff+, 103 location+ and 109 pitching+. His arsenal resulted in an 11.3 SwStr% and 27.5 CSW% in 2024.
Sanchez was the 56th-ranked pitcher by our VBR metric in 2024. He had the underlying data and pitch metrics to support his outstanding 2024 campaign. Drafters are underrating Sanchez significantly. My fellow pundits agree, ranking the lefty as the 59th-ranked pitcher in the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.