Now that the bulk of free agency has occurred, it’s time to recalibrate those fantasy predictions. Specifically, who could outperform their current rankings to help deliver you a fantasy championship? These could be known as undervalued players, but commonly they are described as fantasy football sleepers.
Below are a few examples of fantasy football sleepers and their current ECR from FantasyPros.
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Fantasy Football Sleepers
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
Current ECR: WR44
The quarterback situation in Indianapolis may not be settled, but the receiving depth has been, solidified. And while technically, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. led the Colts in targets and receiving yards last season, the actual leader in fantasy leagues is Josh Downs.
The 2023 third-round pick averaged a half-target target more-per-game and nearly 10 more yards per game than Pittman and scored two more touchdowns in 2024, all while missing three games due to injury. Ah, those injuries. Downs was hurt all over at various points of the season and popped up on the injury report most of the season yet only missed three games. If he hadn’t missed any time, he would have been the team leader in every statistical receiving category by a wide margin.
In even better news, it didn’t seem to matter who was under center as Downs had two of his best games of the season with Anthony Richardson under center for one and Joe Flacco for another. We know Richardson will be back in what is widely considered to be a make-or-break year.
The Colts also added Daniel Jones to back up and/or compete with Richardson. While the signing of another run-heavy quarterback option may spell bad news for receivers, the opposite may be true for Downs. Fellow Colts receiver Alec Pierce, who had a 21.5-yard aDOT last season, might see the biggest decline in his fantasy stats without an accurate, big-arm quarterback option while Pittman’s stats (11.0-yard aDOT) could also see a decline.
Downs, the slot receiver who saw a 6.9-yard aDOT last season, shouldn’t be as affected by either quarterback. The Colts will bring back both head coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, which means another run-heavy attack to go along with a short pass component led by either Richardson or Jones. Downs already finished as the WR38 last season, despite missing three games. If he stays healthy, he could finish well above that and much higher than his current WR44 ADP.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG)
Current ECR: RB25
One of the biggest sleepers of 2024 is also one of the biggest sleepers of 2025. Giants running back Tyrone Tracy was a fifth-round pick last year who ultimately ended up starting for New York and totaled over 1,000 total yards his rookie season, finishing second behind only Bucky Irving among first-year players. He didn’t even start the first month of his professional career, yet still finished as the RB26 in fantasy scoring. And yet, he’s still just RB25 in our ECR rankings.
Like the Colts’ situation above, the quarterback position in New York is still in flux as the only quarterback on the Giants roster is Tommy DeVito. Everything else surrounding the quarterback is pretty set.
The Giants retained head coach Brian Daboll and they still have receiver Malik Nabers to lead the offense. And it’s not as if the Giants have brought in any competition for Tracy in the backfield. Devin Singletary is still the primary backup, but the veteran played well behind Tracy for most of the season.
As for the quarterback position, it’s likely New York will take a signal-caller in the NFL Draft, either by staying put or trading up. That should be viewed as an upgrade on what they threw out last year. Of course, assuming the 2025 starter can finish in the top 32 of QBR, which a Giants quarterback failed to do in 2024.
With this year’s rookie class of running backs being touted as one of the better ones in recent memory, it’s possible Tracy’s ADP fails to move or even drops. In either case, he’s a bargain at his current position and should be starting on fantasy teams in the fall.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Current ECR: TE19
There were many winners when Ben Johnson was named head coach of the Chicago Bears. Quarterback Caleb Williams was an obvious choice, along with the city of Chicago. But when it comes to other players, Cole Kmet might take the cake. The 2020 second-round pick enters his fifth professional season in prime position to be one of the better fantasy tight ends out there.
Kmet has given his fantasy managers a taste of greatness before. He finished as a top-eight fantasy tight end in both 2022 and 2023 when the Bears were primarily led by quarterback Justin Fields and former head coach Matt Eberflus. So hopes were high when Williams was drafted first overall but it wasn’t meant to be.
On an offense that featured former Pro Bowlers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen along with top-10 pick Rome Odunze, there just weren’t enough mouths to feed. Despite the Bears finishing in the top 10 in pass attempts with 33-plus a game, Kmet was well down the pecking order, finishing fourth on the team in targets with 55 and just above running back D’Andre Swift.
So, besides the arrival of Johnson, why would 2025 be different? For starters, the Bears have yet to re-sign Allen or bring in any other pass catchers in free agency unless you count Olamide Zaccheaus or Durham Smythe as threats. This means there are 121 targets up for grabs between Zaccheaus, Smythe, and Kmet on top of the 55 Kmet recorded last season.
If we were to look at what Johnson has done with tight ends in his offense, look no further than his use of Sam LaPorta in Detroit. Besides a record-breaking rookie season, LaPorta turned in a solid sophomore campaign with 83 targets for 60 receptions, 726 yards, and seven touchdowns to finish as a top-six fantasy tight end.
No one should confuse Kmet with LaPorta, but fantasy managers would gladly split the difference to become a top-12 fantasy tight end which would far outpace his current rankingof TE19 in FantasyPros ECR.
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