The word sleeper is often synonymous with a young player on the precipice of breaking out. However, my three favorite fantasy baseball pitching sleepers are at the other end of the career spectrum.
The trio is a group of grey beards, figuratively speaking. However, they’re also being slept on by the fantasy baseball community, evidenced by their average draft position (ADP) costs. The trio have ADPs just inside the top 200, top 300 and top 350 selections, respectively.
- 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position (ADP)
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi (SP – TEX) | Pitcher 73/195.8 ADP
Nathan Eovaldi has been a rock-solid starter for five consecutive seasons, including the past two with the Rangers. He chewed up 144 innings across 25 starts in 2023 before spiking to 170.2 innings in 29 starts in 2024. According to FanGraphs, since 2023, Eovaldi has recorded the following stats in 54 starts spanning 314.2 innings:
- 24 Wins
- 3.72 ERA
- 3.70 xFIP
- 3.88 SIERA
- 1.12 WHIP
- 7% Walk Rate
- 23.4% Strikeout Rate
- 12.3 SwStr%
- 27.7 CSW%
- 100 Stuff+
- 101 Location+
- 101 Pitching+
Eovaldi had stellar underlying data, a sub-4.00 ERA, supported by his ERA estimators, an above-average strikeout rate (the average strikeout rate in 2024 was 22.6%) and a helpful WHIP. He also averaged 157.3 innings in the previous two seasons.
Eovaldi has a checkered injury history. Nevertheless, since 2021, he’s logged 182.1, 109.1, 144 and 170.2 innings. Eovaldi is undervalued and somehow a sleeper as the 73rd-ranked pitcher despite finishing as the 43rd-ranked pitcher in 2024 by our value-based ranking metric (VBR).
Max Scherzer (SP – TOR) | Pitcher #116/292 ADP
Unfortunately, injuries have piled up for Max Scherzer in the past few seasons. Last year, he started only nine games for the Rangers. Thankfully, Mad Max voiced optimism about getting to the root of his nerve issue, alleviating concerns about arguably his most significant injury in recent seasons.
Scherzer is 40 years old and will turn 41 at the end of July. Given his recent injury history and age, gamers should bank on him spending time on the injured list (IL) in 2025. Nevertheless, gamers can work around and stomach Scherzer missing starts this year at his fantasy baseball ADP, especially if his spring training indicates what he has left in the tank.
Scherzer has a 2.00 ERA, 2.27 xFIP, 0.33 WHIP, 0.0% walk rate, 46.7% strikeout rate, 18.5 SwStr% and 32.3 CSW% in three starts spanning nine innings in spring training. The veteran righty broke out a nasty sinker this spring that he added to his arsenal in the offseason.
As the linked article about his sinker pointed out, Scherzer missed his most recent spring start with a minor thumb injury. Supporting the notion the thumb issue is minor, Scherzer will throw in a Minor League game early this week.
Gamers shouldn’t count on Scherzer being a workhorse. Still, with a fantasy ADP barely inside the top 200 picks, Scherzer is a sleeper for high-quality innings when he toes the slab at a bargain price.
Justin Verlander (SP – SF) | Pitcher #137/344.6 ADP
Justin Verlander is another overlooked veteran despite a semi-encouraging spring training. In three spring training starts totaling 11 innings, Verlander has a 2.45 ERA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 4.8% walk rate, 21.4% strikeout rate, 14.5 SwStr% and 28.2 CSW%. The gap between his ERA and xFIP isn’t ideal. Still, Verlander’s ERA, WHIP, walk rate, strikeout rate and plate discipline numbers were stellar in those starts.
Additionally, Verlander’s fastball velocity is notable.
If Verlander can maintain an average fastball velocity of 94 miles per hour (MPH), that would be higher than the 93.5 MPH fastball velocity from last season and closer to his 94.3 MPH average fastball velocity in 2023.
In 17 starts last season, Verlander had a 5.48 ERA, 3.78 xERA, 5.13 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA with his diminished fastball velocity. In 27 starts in 2023, he had a 3.22 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 4.56 xFIP and 4.80 SIERA.
Even in a down campaign last year, Verlander had 110 stuff+, 93 location+ and 101 pitching+. Verlander’s pitch modeling was good, save for his 93 location+. From 2020 through 2023 (he was out in 2021), Verlander had 111, 102 and 101 location+. If the 42-year-old righty can maintain his stuff and recapture his location, he can drastically outperform his ADP this year.
Verlander can also benefit from changing home ballparks in the offseason. According to our park factors, Daikin Park in Houston has park factors of 1.000 for runs, 1.061 for homers, 0.978 for singles, 1.012 for doubles and 1.106 for triples versus 0.916, 0.784, 1.036, 1.032 and 1.265 at Oracle Park.
Last year might have represented the cliff for Verlander. Yet, if the veteran hurler bounces back in 2025, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s done so in his career. His pitch modeling wasn’t that of a washed-up pitcher in 2024. Verlander’s upside is worth a dice roll at his low ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.