Clint Graves | Mon, Mar 17th 2025, 7:04am EDT

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Pocket Aces (2025)

Pocket aces originated with Texas hold’em poker, where a player has the highest advantage before the poker hand is played by getting dealt two aces. This is the best possible starting hand, but statistically, a player has only a 30% chance of winning in this position.

Why is it so low? Because poker players can get greedy. Seeing their clear advantage, they low bet to try to trick others into anteing up, increasing the pot and potential winnings. Taking risks thinking their advantage on paper will work in their favor later.

Pocket Aces Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

Pocket aces strategy in fantasy baseball — picking two elite starters to base your team on — is similar. In this case, pocket aces are high-end starters, projected to finish with 200+ strikeouts and 200+ innings pitched. Mix that in with a few solid position players, chase sleeper pitchers to fill out the roster, and bam, you’re nearing a 30% chance of winning your league.

It’s so simple. Why does everyone not do this? You will rarely, if ever, find elite pitchers on the waiver wire. I still hold a place in my heart for Jake Arrieta‘s Cy-Young run after I picked him up from waivers, so this must be the best way to set up a team. It’s so simple.

Let’s do a deep dive before a mock draft so we can test what we’re working with here.

Top-Tier Pitchers (Aces)

Let’s assume a 12-team league and the worst-case scenario for this strategy: Picking first overall in a snake draft. Prepare for the worst but hoping for the best is the key to being ready.

Pitchers in the top 30:

Shohei Ohtani (SP, DH – LAD) | No. 6 overall
Paul Skenes (SP – PIT) | No. 16 overall
Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI) | No. 17 overall
Cole Ragans (SP – KC) | No. 21 overall
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA) | No. 28 overall

Taking a player projected 16th overall with the first overall pick, while an unpopular opinion, is not insane if you want him. We know Paul Skenes/Zack Wheeler or possibly even Cole Ragans will not be available 24th overall, so get your guy.

Why would anyone do that? Positional scarcity and waiver wire availability.

Elite Pitchers

Elite pitchers with a sub 1.00 WHIP and a K/9 over 9.0 are hard to find. There were 12 total in 2024:

In a standard 12-team league, that leaves one per team. Snag two top pitchers in the top of the draft and maybe get lucky by picking up Jack Flaherty last year and you were cruising toward an elite pitching staff.

Three elite pitchers, solid positional players and playing the waiver wire will give your team a chance to win every week, setting you up for a playoff run.

Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)

Spencer Strider was the consensus best pitcher heading into last season thanks to his elite numbers and elite stuff.

He threw 9nine innings in 2024. Nine.

Injury risk is much higher when dealing with starting pitchers than position players. Position players have a decent chance of having a replacement who could contribute 60-70% of the injured player’s value. Drafting Strider last year was like throwing away a first-round pick before Week 2 of the season even started.

Top Projected Starters

Top 10 projected starting pitchers in 2024:

Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow, Kevin Gausman, Pablo Lopez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto did not live up to the hype last year, whether it was their fault or injury-related. Managers had a 50/50 chance of drafting an elite pitcher if they took a top-10 projected starting pitcher last year.

Starting pitching can be hard to predict, which is why many stay away from the pocket aces strategy.

How to Become Risk-Averse With Pocket Aces

Mitigate your risk elsewhere in your draft, assuming you took your fair share of risk drafting two elite pitchers.

Later in the draft, when it is your turn and you’re debating between Ronald Acuna and Kyle Schwarber, you need to consider injury history. One is elite but has a chance of missing time, one is a workhorse. Take the workhorse and be riskier with fliers later on.

Pocket Aces Mock Draft

Let’s put it all into motion. Here is my pocket aces fantasy mock draft from the 1.01 pick. I don’t love how much quality pitching in the later rounds I needed to pass up to fill out my rosters, but it’s a good team.

1.01 – Shohei Ohtani (SP, DH – LAD)
2.12 – Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)
3.01 – Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
4.12 – Pete Alonso (1B – NYM)
5.01 – Michael Harris (OF – ATL)
6.12 – Anthony Santander (OF, DH – TOR)
7.01 – Bryan Reynolds (OF, DH – PIT)
8.12 – Seiya Suzuki (OF, DH – CHC)
9.01 – Bailey Ober (SP – MIN)
10.12 – Tanner Bibee (SP – CLE)
11.01 – Luis Arraez (1B, 2B, DH – SD)
12.12 – Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL)
13.01 – Jack Flaherty (SP – DET)
14.12 – Pete Fairbanks (RP – TB)
15.01 – Tyler Stephenson (C – CIN)
16.12 – A.J. Puk (SP, RP – ARI)
17.01 – Ben Joyce (RP – LAA)
18.12 – Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU)
19.01 – Jonathan India (2B – KC)
20.12 – Matt Shaw (2B, 3B, SS – CHC)
21.01 – Aroldis Chapman (RP – BOS)

Given the depth of starting pitching this season and lack of clear elite pitching (Even Ohtani will likely skip a few starts as he recovers from injury), in 2025 I’m leaning towards playing pocket aces only in Poker. At least then I have a 30% chance of lucking into a win. This team doesn’t feel like it’s set up for the long haul.

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