The best way to get a good sense of the fantasy baseball market is to monitor high-stakes average draft position (ADP) trends. The most active platform is NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship), so that’s the top spot to look for this information. Here are fantasy baseball draft risers and fallers.
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Fantasy Baseball High-Stakes ADP Trends
The NFBC RotoWire Online Championship is a 12-team league with a $150,000 grand prize to the overall winner, making it the preferred league to choose for this comparison. In this article, we’ll look at Online Championship ADP from March 1st and compare it with February ADP to see which players are rising and falling. Keep in mind these are leagues where you start two catchers, so they go a bit higher than in conventional formats.
For this comparison, we’ll stick to players in the top 300 and remove those who are dealing with potential long-term absences like Grayson Rodriguez. Without further ado, let’s dive into fantasy baseball high-stakes ADP trends.
Fantasy Baseball High-Stakes ADP Risers
| Player | February ADP | March ADP | Difference |
| Clay Holmes (SP- NYM) | 249.19 | 210.86 | +38.33 |
| Gavin Williams (SP – CLE) | 227.90 | 196.66 | +31.24 |
| Rhys Hoskins (1B – MIL) | 295.42 | 271.62 | +23.80 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (SP – PHI) | 176.19 | 153.48 | +22.71 |
| Cody Bradford (SP – TEX) | 302.94 | 281.45 | +21.49 |
| Walker Buehler (SP – BOS) | 241.56 | 220.55 | +21.01 |
| Trevor Story (SS – BOS) | 280.58 | 260.31 | +20.27 |
| Max Scherzer (SP – TOR) | 270.42 | 250.17 | +20.25 |
Clay Holmes has shot up in fantasy baseball ADP after a promising spring training that has seen him showcase a new change-up, which has produced terrific results, including 9.2 scoreless innings with four walks and 13 strikeouts. With Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas banged up, expect the Mets to lean on Holmes more than expected.
Gavin Williams is a former top prospect who had his 2024 season derailed by injury, but he’s healthy now. We’re seeing some impressive work from Williams in spring training, where he’s posted a 1.13 ERA with two walks and 16 strikeouts in eight innings. The Guardians are terrific with pitching development, so there’s a lot of upside here.
Rhys Hoskins is a 31-year-old first baseman with a track record, putting up 26+ home runs in five of his last six seasons. While the .214 batting average hurt you last season, he put up .240+ in each of his previous two years, so perhaps he can get back there. The Brewers veteran has four home runs in 21 plate appearances so far this spring.
Cristopher Sanchez has shown a two-mile-per-hour (MPH) uptick in velocity this spring, which has produced impressive results, including 12 strikeouts in 7.2 innings. This is especially notable for Sanchez because he had a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate last season. If Sanchez can hold these gains during the season, we could see him wind up as a steal at his current cost.
Cody Bradford is likely to open the season in the Rangers’ rotation, ahead of exciting prospect Kumar Rocker. Let’s remember Bradford posted a 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 76.1 innings last season. Bradford is enjoying a productive spring — two runs allowed in nine innings — explaining the bump in ADP.
Walker Buehler finished the year strong, looking impressive during the Dodgers’ World Series run, allowing zero earned runs in his last three appearances across 10 innings. Now one year further removed from Tommy John surgery, we could see Buehler get back to his old self. The results in spring training through five innings: one earned run, one walk and seven strikeouts.
Trevor Story has had an injury-prone career, but he looks healthy right now, smacking two homers in 25 plate appearances in spring training. The former Rockie is still good defensively, so the strong glove can help keep his bat in the lineup. If Story can stay healthy, he could turn a profit at cost due to his intriguing power and speed profile.
Max Scherzer looks fully healthy right now, mowing down opposing hitters in spring training with zero walks and 14 strikeouts in nine innings. The biggest question with Scherzer is how many innings he’ll last this year, but the promising start has caused fantasy baseball players to be a bit more optimistic.
Fantasy Baseball High-Stakes ADP Fallers
| Player | February ADP | March ADP | Difference |
| Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT) | 273.63 | 287.97 | -14.34 |
| Max Muncy (3B – LAD) | 251.44 | 265.48 | -14.04 |
| Kristian Campbell (2B – BOS) | 281.90 | 295.21 | -13.31 |
| Adolis Garcia (OF – TEX) | 144.38 | 155.41 | -11.03 |
| Will Smith (C – LAD) | 96.33 | 106.38 | -10.06 |
| Matt Shaw (3B – CHC) | 207.21 | 217.17 | -9.96 |
| Willi Castro (2B, 3B, SS, OF – MIN) | 234.73 | 244.00 | -9.27 |
| J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI) | 134.31 | 142.55 | -8.24 |
Bubba Chandler is considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but we’re likely to see the Pirates slow-play him to the big leagues. Let’s remember this is a team that didn’t call up Paul Skenes until May 11th last season. After signing Andrew Heaney in late February, the Pirates’ rotation is set for Opening Day, causing the drop for Chandler.
Max Muncy is coming off a year with only 293 plate appearances, now entering his age-34 season. The Dodgers have a stacked lineup with enough depth where they can rest Muncy to keep him fresh for the stretch run. Add in the fact the veteran has hit .232 or worse in three straight seasons, and you can see why his ADP has dropped.
Kristian Campbell is an elite prospect, but the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman. With Rafael Devers refusing to move off third base, Bregman could see action at second base, which would block Campbell. Campbell’s likely best path is in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu banged up, but it appears highly likely he’ll start the year in the Minors.
Adolis Garcia has always had poor plate discipline, but he was able to overcome that by barreling the ball at a high rate and providing stolen base upside. That caught up to him in 2024, where he put up a 92 wRC+. Now entering his age-32 season and dealing with oblique issues, Garcia looks like a player on the decline.
Will Smith is a dependable catcher, but last season’s plate appearances (544) were his lowest since 2021, as Shohei Ohtani now permanently occupies the designated hitter spot. Smith is a hitter with a sixth-percentile bat speed, according to Baseball Savant, so the power isn’t as intriguing as it once was. Add in the bump with pitchers in March, and you can see why Smith fell.
Matt Shaw is an intriguing prospect who provides rare speed at third base. The spot is wide open for him to take over as the Cubs’s starting third baseman. The reason for the ADP drop is that Shaw is dealing with an oblique injury. However, it’s not expected to be serious, with Shaw likely only missing the Tokyo Series, so buying at a discount seems wise here.
Willi Castro is a versatile player with a lot of positional flexibility and speed upside, but the Twins appear set to bat Matt Wallner at leadoff versus righties, which has been a common occurrence throughout spring training. That hurts Castro’s value a bit, which could explain why he’s seen a slight drop in ADP.
J.T. Realmuto is now entering his age-34 season, with the Phillies already publicly stating they plan to reduce his workload to keep him fresh. We saw Realmuto’s stolen bases drop from 16 to two last season, which feels like something that’s here to stay given his advanced age. Without speed upside, Realmuto’s shine has worn off.
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