10 Fantasy Baseball Busts Based on Projections (2025)

The numbers don’t lie—some players just aren’t living up to the hype. Joe Pisapia and Joe Orrico sat down live on Twitch to break down 10 fantasy baseball names that projections are way down on for the 2025 season. Should you fade Jarren Duran, Seiya Suzuki and Hunter Greene at their current ADPs? Plus, a deep dive into auction values, lineup impacts, and how to exploit these projections in your drafts.

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1. Jarren Duran

• Last Season’s Production:
  – Scored over 110 runs, hit 20 homers, stole 30+ bases, and hit around .285.
• Projection Concerns:
  – ATC projections call for regression across the board: a drop to a .268 batting average, three fewer homers, 20 fewer runs, six fewer RBIs, and four fewer stolen bases.
• Draft Implication:
  – Although Duran was a darling last year and remains attractive, projections suggest caution. Managers should avoid overpaying if his production regresses toward these conservative estimates.

2. Seiya Suzuki

• Current Status:
  – Despite being a well-rounded contributor capable of five-category production, Suzuki’s recent numbers (around .283–.285 average) aren’t fully reflected in the projections.
• Projection Details:
  – ATC projects his average near .263 (or even as low as .257 on other systems), which seems too conservative given his skill set and the favorable lineup (including support from players like Kyle Tucker).
• Draft Implication:
  – Suzuki may be undervalued by many, but the projections being overly pessimistic could lead to overpaying if managers try to “correct” these numbers too early. The takeaway is to be mindful that his ceiling might be higher than the models suggest.

3. Jordan Westburg

• Role and Production:
  – Last season, Westburg posted modest totals (18 HR, 63 RBIs, 6 SB, .264 average) after a breakout that wasn’t widely anticipated.
• Projection Insight:
  – While Westburg is expected to be locked into a regular role, the projections place him as roughly a $10 player in 12-team leagues—similar in value to other players available much later.
• Draft Implication:
  – His production might be replicable with lower-cost alternatives later in the draft. In other words, Westburg may be slightly overvalued relative to his floor and the available replacement level.

4. Mark Vientos

• Context:
  – A Mets infielder viewed with high expectations by longtime fans, yet projections raise concerns.
• Projection Details:
  – Vientos is projected with a low batting average (around .242, with some systems even dropping him to .230) and carries a high strikeout rate (near 30%) combined with a 16% swinging strike rate.
• Draft Implication:
  – Given these numbers, Vientos might be overvalued. The models suggest that similar production can be found later in the draft at a lower cost, making his current ADP a potential warning sign.

5. Anthony Volpe

• Recent Performance & Role:
  – A highly touted Yankees prospect who has yet to meet lofty expectations.
• Projection Concerns:
  – Projections show Volpe with a low batting average (~.237), modest power (14 HR), and only 60 RBI—numbers that largely stem from his lower lineup spot and swing–and–miss tendencies.
• Draft Implication:
  – While Volpe has talent (speed, power potential, and defense), these conservative projections mean that paying too high a price may be unwise in redraft formats. Managers should be cautious not to overbid for him.

6. Corbin Burnes

• Historical Context:
  – Burnes has been a dominant force in previous seasons; however, recent trends show a decline in his strikeout rate.
• Projection Details:
  – The models project him with a 3.55 ERA and, more importantly, with a lower strikeout rate than in his peak years. His strikeout rate has steadily dropped from around 35% to the low-to-mid 20s.
• Draft Implication:
  – Because his production (especially in strikeouts) may not justify a high-dollar price, Burnes appears overvalued. The consensus is that similar production might be obtained from other pitchers (like Garrett Crochet, Reagan, or even Blake Snell) later in drafts.

7. Hunter Brown

• Recent Form:
  – Brown showed a rough patch in April but rebounded strongly afterward.
• Projection Concerns:
  – Despite a solid strikeout potential, his projected numbers—a 1.25 WHIP and 3.75 ERA over 170 innings—raise concerns. These numbers suggest he might not contribute as many wins or quality starts as hoped.
• Draft Implication:
  – In deeper leagues, a slightly inflated projection might mean you’re paying too much for his production compared to other pitchers in the same ADP range. Managers might be better off targeting similar value options.

8. Hunter Greene

• Upside & Variability:
  – Greene has massive strikeout potential and has shown flashes of elite ability. However, his early career numbers (especially his home run-to-fly ball ratios) have been inconsistent.
• Projection Details:
  – ATC projects him with a 3.9 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but given his inconsistency and the uncertainty around his performance in hitter-friendly environments (like Cincinnati), these numbers could be risky.
• Draft Implication:
  – While his upside is high, the projections suggest caution. Greene’s value may be inflated relative to more consistent pitchers available later, so managers should be wary of overpaying for his potential.

9. Jared Jones

• Seasonal Context:
  – Jones burst out of the gate early in the season with a 3.56 ERA, but his performance collapsed in the second half (rising to a 5.87 ERA) amid injuries.
• Projection Concerns:
  – With only one season of data and significant variability between halves, projections place him around the #60 starting pitcher with a relatively low dollar value in 12-team leagues.
• Draft Implication:
  – Given the risk associated with his volatile production and the overall quality of available pitchers, taking a chance on Jared Jones could be a gamble. Managers might find more reliable production in other options.

10. Shane Baz

• Profile & Situation:
  – Baz is a young pitcher with promising upside who should be healthy this season. However, his current projections are conservative.
• Projection Details:
  – He is projected for only 138 innings, a 4.05 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and fewer than optimal strikeouts per inning. These numbers suggest he might not get enough volume to maximize his talent.
• Draft Implication:
  – Although Baz’s underlying stuff (especially his strikeout ability) is strong, the low projected workload and production could mean he’s overvalued if teams bid too high for him. Managers should be cautious and perhaps wait for a better price.