When it comes to fantasy baseball, landing the right starting pitchers can make or break your season. Drafting an ace is crucial, but finding value arms and avoiding potential busts is just as important. To help you navigate the 2024 fantasy baseball landscape, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros. These experts break down the starting pitchers to target and avoid, highlighting sleepers, breakouts, and potential landmines based on performance trends, advanced metrics, and team situations. Before you draft, check out their expert takes on which arms can give you an edge-and which ones could derail your championship hopes.
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Fantasy Baseball Breakouts to Draft
Who’s your top breakout candidate inside the top 60 SPs and why?
Spencer Arrighetti (SP – HOU)
“Spencer Arrighetti is ready to break out. The overall ERA of 4.53 is misleading, especially with a 4.05 xERA. In the second half of the season, Arrighetti had a whiff rate of at least 37.8% on three pitches and over 75 innings, he had a 3.18 ERA and 78 strikeouts. The walk rates improved as the season went on, and he was hit with some bad luck early on BABIP and strand rates.”
– Adam Ronis (FantasyLife)
“With an ERA of 4.53, it’s difficult to call ’24 a breakout, so I’m going with Spencer Arrighetti in 2025 because he qualifies. With a K/9 of 10.61 and a K% of 27.1, as well as a FIP of 3.95 and a BaBip of .350, the numbers show that Spencer A both has the stuff and actually had the season in 2024 that should have been more highly publicized. FantasyPros.com ranks him 56th amongst SP, while I would have him closer to 30th, with a justified ADP of closer to 100 than where it currently stands outside the top 200. Ratios are a fickle mistress, so to project his “breakout” ERA and WHIP is tricky. However, 200 Ks are rare, and I see Arrighetti breaking that threshold in 2025 with the ERA and WHIP commensurate with No. 2 starter stuff. I’m drafting him ahead of higher-ranked SPs like Max Fried and Tyler Glasnow, and with the suppressed ADP, Arrighetti will give teammate Framber Valdez a run for his statistical money just 140 picks (14 rounds) later. I think that qualifies as a breakout.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
“Hunter Greene delivered an impressive 2024 season, posting a 9-5 record with a 2.75 ERA over 26 starts, totaling 150 1/3 innings pitched. He struck out 169 batters and maintained a WHIP of 1.02. While his career ERA stands at 3.90, his 2024 performance suggests a positive trend. My only concern with him is an elbow injury that kept him out of action in August last year. However, assuming he remains healthy, Greene’s high strikeout potential and improving control make him an excellent breakout candidate in 2025.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jared Jones (SP – PIT)
“Jared Jones debuted last season, and there was a lot to like. He gets overshadowed by Paul Skenes, but he’s a darn good pitching prospect in his own right. His challenge is finding a third pitch to go along with his fastball-slider combo that he relied on in 2024. Last year, he threw a curveball and a changeup, but neither was effective enough to be featured. In fact, neither pitch even earned a 10% usage rate, as Jones relied on his four-seamer nearly 50% of the time and his slider just under 35% of the time. That isn’t usually a recipe for success, but those pitches were so good that he had a solid year anyway. If he can develop a reliable third pitch, he has the ceiling of an SP1 in fantasy.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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