Looking to get a leg up on your 2025 fantasy football draft? Identifying early overvalued and undervalued players based on Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) can give you the edge you need. To help you stay ahead of the curve, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros – some of the most accurate fantasy football experts in the industry. These analysts have pinpointed which players are being drafted too early or slipping too far, allowing you to build smarter, more value-driven rosters. Let’s break down the early draft targets you need to know.
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Early Overvalued Draft Targets
Who is one overvalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be avoiding in redraft drafts and why?
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“Kyren Williams may be overrated for 2025 fantasy football drafts due to his injury history, which has already disrupted his availability in past seasons and raises concerns about his durability moving forward. His production heavily relies on the Rams’ offensive scheme, and any changes in coaching or play-calling could diminish his output. The step-back in efficiency we saw from Williams last year could be a sign of things to come with the touches eventually wearing him down and leading to more snaps off the field. The emergence of rookie Blake Corum in Los Angeles could lead to a timeshare backfield, cutting into Williams’ touches and reducing his fantasy ceiling. His breakout 2023 season may have set unrealistic expectations, as defenses are now more prepared to game-plan against him. Lastly, his receiving stats are modest compared to other top-tier running backs, limiting his PPR upside in a league where dual-threat RBs often dominate.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
“I’m avoiding Kyren Williams at cost for redraft leagues, who is currently valued as a borderline RB1 in ECR’s ranks. Kyren needs an insane workload to hit RB1 numbers every year. His 0.76 PPR points per opportunity ranked just 36th amongst RBs in 2024. If LA drafts a rookie RB or Blake Corum makes Year 2 strides, Kyren’s workload will shrink, and he’ll see a big drop in fantasy production.”
– Jim Moorman (Dynasty Football Factory)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
“It wasn’t long ago that Baker Mayfield’s days as a starting NFL quarterback appeared to be numbered. Now, his ECR is QB6. That’s far too expensive for a player who looks destined to be freight-trained by regression. Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year. He’d never had even 30 TD passes in any other season. Mayfield also had 378 rushing yards. He’d never had even 200 rushing yards in any previous season. And for a second straight season, Mayfield will be working with a new playcaller. Each of his last two — first Dave Canales, then Liam Coen — landed head-coaching gigs elsewhere. Maybe Mayfield will land on his feet again, but he seems like a poor investment at his current price.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“I can’t pay the WR13 price tag for Tyreek Hill. For an aging wide receiver that’s another year older, it’s too steep. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 20.2% target share, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 23.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Hill could return low-end WR2 production in 2025, but it’s equally possible that he either deals with injury or, because of age, dips into the high-end WR3 production range.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I think the days of Tyreek Hill being an elite fantasy WR could be over. He was WR18 last year in PPR while Tua was out for 4 weeks with yet another concussion. Is Tyreek good enough to be a WR1? Of course, he is. But Miami’s offense is abysmal without Tua under center, and I personally don’t want to rely on Tua being healthy. I would much rather have receivers like JSN, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and Garrett Wilson, who are all being drafted after Tyreek.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
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