Looking to get a leg up on your 2025 fantasy football draft? Identifying early overvalued and undervalued players based on Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) can give you the edge you need. To help you stay ahead of the curve, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros – some of the most accurate fantasy football experts in the industry. These analysts have pinpointed which players are being drafted too early or slipping too far, allowing you to build smarter, more value-driven rosters. Let’s break down the early draft targets you need to know.
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Early Overvalued Draft Targets
Who is one overvalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be avoiding in redraft drafts and why?
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“This one is easy. Breece Hall at RB12 and Pick 27 overall is a must-avoid. Hall finished the 2024 campaign as RB17 in 1/2 PPR scoring while playing 16 games. He is in his third season but has played only two full seasons, missing much of his rookie season due to injury. In those seasons, he has failed to rush for over 1,000 yards and has been keeping his value afloat with his receiving work and touchdowns. Last season saw him regress in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and total touchdowns despite being one of the only weapons in the Jet’s offense. He heads into 2025 with an offensive line that is a mess and transitions from the statue-like Aaron Rodgers to dual-threat Justin Fields. Fields is guaranteed to eat up some of his rushing volumes and will tank his targets in the receiving game and his goal-line carries. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Fields helps Hall meet his 27th overall ranking.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
“I’m not sure quite what the consensus is thinking with ranking Puka Nacua as the 4th-best WR. He’s had injury issues, both in college and last year. Puka’s best games usually came when Cooper Kupp was injured. And while it’s true that Kupp is gone, the Rams signed star WR Davante Adams to a two-year 46 million-dollar contract in free agency. Folks, they’re not paying him 46 million to be a decoy. Ringo would rather have Adams, especially at his cheaper cost, because one, Ringo is cheap; and two, Puka’s high price tag just makes him nauseous (sorry- I had to), haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
“There can be outliers, but the age cliff is clear for RB. Derrick Henry has stood at the edge of that cliff for years and lorded over it. He was PFFs number-one ranked rusher in 2024, tallying over 2,100 yards on the ground through the playoffs. There is no reason to fade him except for the usual predictions he’s always disproven. He’s aging, doesn’t catch passes, and has amassed over 2,700 touches in the NFL (approximately 1,000,000 touches lifetime). Henry sitting at pre-draft RB4 says people have finally given up trying to fade him. That makes it just the time to fade. Will it work? No, it never (has). I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but. . . but it might work (this time).”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)
“After six years with the Seattle Seahawks, DK Metcalf (WR24 in the rankings, 53rd overall) got traded to the Steelers this offseason. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh currently doesn’t have a starting-caliber quarterback on the roster. More importantly, Metcalf is coming off the worst fantasy performance of his career since his rookie year. Last season, he finished as the WR32, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, it was the first time the veteran had fewer than six receiving touchdowns in a year. Between Arthur Smith’s play-calling and the quarterback situation, Metcalf is on my do-not-draft list. There are several wide receivers who are lower in the rankings that I would draft over him, including Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, and Rome Odunze.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
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