Looking to get a leg up on your 2025 fantasy football draft? Identifying early overvalued and undervalued players based on Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) can give you the edge you need. To help you stay ahead of the curve, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros – some of the most accurate fantasy football experts in the industry. These analysts have pinpointed which players are being drafted too early or slipping too far, allowing you to build smarter, more value-driven rosters. Let’s break down the early draft targets you need to know.

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Early Overvalued Draft Targets 

Who is one overvalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be avoiding in redraft drafts and why?

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

“Kyren Williams may be overrated for 2025 fantasy football drafts due to his injury history, which has already disrupted his availability in past seasons and raises concerns about his durability moving forward. His production heavily relies on the Rams’ offensive scheme, and any changes in coaching or play-calling could diminish his output. The step-back in efficiency we saw from Williams last year could be a sign of things to come with the touches eventually wearing him down and leading to more snaps off the field. The emergence of rookie Blake Corum in Los Angeles could lead to a timeshare backfield, cutting into Williams’ touches and reducing his fantasy ceiling. His breakout 2023 season may have set unrealistic expectations, as defenses are now more prepared to game-plan against him. Lastly, his receiving stats are modest compared to other top-tier running backs, limiting his PPR upside in a league where dual-threat RBs often dominate.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

“I’m avoiding Kyren Williams at cost for redraft leagues, who is currently valued as a borderline RB1 in ECR’s ranks. Kyren needs an insane workload to hit RB1 numbers every year. His 0.76 PPR points per opportunity ranked just 36th amongst RBs in 2024. If LA drafts a rookie RB or Blake Corum makes Year 2 strides, Kyren’s workload will shrink, and he’ll see a big drop in fantasy production.”
– Jim Moorman (Dynasty Football Factory)

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)

“It wasn’t long ago that Baker Mayfield’s days as a starting NFL quarterback appeared to be numbered. Now, his ECR is QB6. That’s far too expensive for a player who looks destined to be freight-trained by regression. Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year. He’d never had even 30 TD passes in any other season. Mayfield also had 378 rushing yards. He’d never had even 200 rushing yards in any previous season. And for a second straight season, Mayfield will be working with a new playcaller. Each of his last two — first Dave Canales, then Liam Coen — landed head-coaching gigs elsewhere. Maybe Mayfield will land on his feet again, but he seems like a poor investment at his current price.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

“I can’t pay the WR13 price tag for Tyreek Hill. For an aging wide receiver that’s another year older, it’s too steep. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 20.2% target share, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 23.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Hill could return low-end WR2 production in 2025, but it’s equally possible that he either deals with injury or, because of age, dips into the high-end WR3 production range.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

“I think the days of Tyreek Hill being an elite fantasy WR could be over. He was WR18 last year in PPR while Tua was out for 4 weeks with yet another concussion. Is Tyreek good enough to be a WR1? Of course, he is. But Miami’s offense is abysmal without Tua under center, and I personally don’t want to rely on Tua being healthy. I would much rather have receivers like JSN, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and Garrett Wilson, who are all being drafted after Tyreek.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

“This one is easy. Breece Hall at RB12 and Pick 27 overall is a must-avoid. Hall finished the 2024 campaign as RB17 in 1/2 PPR scoring while playing 16 games. He is in his third season but has played only two full seasons, missing much of his rookie season due to injury. In those seasons, he has failed to rush for over 1,000 yards and has been keeping his value afloat with his receiving work and touchdowns. Last season saw him regress in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and total touchdowns despite being one of the only weapons in the Jet’s offense. He heads into 2025 with an offensive line that is a mess and transitions from the statue-like Aaron Rodgers to dual-threat Justin Fields. Fields is guaranteed to eat up some of his rushing volumes and will tank his targets in the receiving game and his goal-line carries. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Fields helps Hall meet his 27th overall ranking.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

“I’m not sure quite what the consensus is thinking with ranking Puka Nacua as the 4th-best WR. He’s had injury issues, both in college and last year. Puka’s best games usually came when Cooper Kupp was injured. And while it’s true that Kupp is gone, the Rams signed star WR Davante Adams to a two-year 46 million-dollar contract in free agency. Folks, they’re not paying him 46 million to be a decoy. Ringo would rather have Adams, especially at his cheaper cost, because one, Ringo is cheap; and two, Puka’s high price tag just makes him nauseous (sorry- I had to), haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)

“There can be outliers, but the age cliff is clear for RB. Derrick Henry has stood at the edge of that cliff for years and lorded over it. He was PFFs number-one ranked rusher in 2024, tallying over 2,100 yards on the ground through the playoffs. There is no reason to fade him except for the usual predictions he’s always disproven. He’s aging, doesn’t catch passes, and has amassed over 2,700 touches in the NFL (approximately 1,000,000 touches lifetime). Henry sitting at pre-draft RB4 says people have finally given up trying to fade him. That makes it just the time to fade. Will it work? No, it never (has). I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but. . . but it might work (this time).”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)

“After six years with the Seattle Seahawks, DK Metcalf (WR24 in the rankings, 53rd overall) got traded to the Steelers this offseason. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh currently doesn’t have a starting-caliber quarterback on the roster. More importantly, Metcalf is coming off the worst fantasy performance of his career since his rookie year. Last season, he finished as the WR32, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, it was the first time the veteran had fewer than six receiving touchdowns in a year. Between Arthur Smith’s play-calling and the quarterback situation, Metcalf is on my do-not-draft list. There are several wide receivers who are lower in the rankings that I would draft over him, including Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, and Rome Odunze.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

“I can’t get myself to draft Isiah Pacheco as the RB25 and 65th player overall. Before breaking his leg, he was on track to have another great fantasy year. Unfortunately, after his injury, he returned to a committee backfield with the reunited Kareem Hunt. Over this eight-game span (including playoffs), he had over 10 carries in two games and didn’t have more than five in each of the three playoff games. This offseason, they did not only re-sign  Hunt but also signed Elijah Mitchell to a 3.5 million dollar deal. Everything points to this backfield splitting touches with Kareem Hunt in the driver’s seat for goalline carries. As a result, I’m avoiding this backfield at all costs.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

“The consensus RB1 in 2025 will be Saquon Barkley after arguably the greatest season we have ever seen from the position. He went over 2,000 rushing yards as the only skill player to average more than 20 points per game in half-PPR. The Eagles’ rusher led the NFL in touches with nearly 500…running effectively behind the league’s best OL. But as was the case with Christian McCaffrey in 2023 and many RBs before him, leading the NFL in touches by such a vast margin is essentially the kiss of death for RBs the following year. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Brock Bowers (TE – LV)

“This may come in as a shocker, but I’ll likely be avoiding Brock Bowers in early round 2. Bowers is a fantastic talent for the tight end position, but that early in drafts may be risky. The addition of Geno Smith may get the passing game to spread the ball around more than under the previous quarterbacks. I’d expect the Raiders to add to their offense a running back (who can make the run game useful) and another receiver to take away targets. Bowers at ECR14 is drafting him like he is guaranteed another 150 target season.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Early Undervalued Draft Targets 

Who is one undervalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be targeting in redraft drafts and why?

Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF)

“Ricky Pearsall could be an undervalued asset in 2025 fantasy football drafts due to his late-season performance in 2024, where he recorded 14 receptions on 18 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns across his final two games, showcasing his potential as a high-volume target. His 64.1 PFF receiving grade as a rookie, paired with an impressively low 3.1% drop rate, highlights his reliability, which could translate into consistent fantasy points if given more opportunities. With Deebo Samuel traded to the Washington Commanders and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a major knee injury, Pearsall’s target share could rise significantly, as he saw a 21.7% target share in the last two weeks of 2024. In those same games, he averaged 2.84 yards per route run, a strong indicator of efficiency that could make him a sleeper pick if defenses focus on other 49ers weapons like George Kittle or Christian McCaffrey. Pearsall’s 30.4% first-read share in those final weeks suggests quarterback Brock Purdy trusts him in critical situations, boosting his upside in an offense known for its creativity under Kyle Shanahan. If Aiyuk’s recovery lingers or the 49ers lean further into passing in 2025, Pearsall’s current redraft ranking of WR49 could prove a steal, as his 141-yard, 1-touchdown performance against Detroit in Week 17 demonstrates his capacity to deliver WR1-level production at a fraction of the draft cost.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

“Chris Godwin is someone I’ll be targeting heavily in redraft leagues. He’s valued as the WR30 in ECR’s half-PPR and full-PPR ranks. This is a guy who was averaging nearly 20 PPR points per game before his injury in 2024. Baker is back, and reports say Godwin’s rehab is going well, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t outperform his WR30 price tag in 2025.”
– Jim Moorman (Dynasty Football Factory)

Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)

“Jerry Jeudy has a late-sixth-round ECR, suggesting that not everyone is buying his 2024 renaissance. Well, I’m buying it. Granted, Jameis Winston‘s hyper-aggressive downfield passing helped fuel Jeudy’s 90-catch, 1,229-yard season. But, holy smokes, Jeudy looked terrific last year. He’s a crafty route-runner and is dangerous with the ball in his hands. Even though he won’t be playing with Winston, Jeudy is a bargain at the back end of the sixth.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Evan Engram (TE – DEN)

“Evan Engram sitting at TE9 in ECR is free money. We’ve seen previously that when Engram has been healthy and the focal point of a passing offense, he can be a top-five option at the position (with top-three upside). In 2023, he was the TE4 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 23.8% target share while ranking ninth in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Engram should be viewed as a consensus top-five tight end.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)

“Caleb Williams is a great value as QB19 and 98th overall. His rookie season was a rollercoaster ride of mixed results that looks far worse than it was due largely to the success of the rest of the rookie quarterback class, namely Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Williams joined a Bear’s offense that was welcoming in an ensemble of new pieces and required some time to come together. The Bears and Williams fell short of expectations due in large part to an awful offensive line that left Williams no reasonable chance at success. This offseason, the Bears have beefed up the offensive line and brought in Detroit Lions offensive mastermind Ben Johnson as their head coach. A full season with his playmakers, a better coach, and an offensive line capable of actually protecting him gives Williams a chance to get back into the conversation with Daniels for QB1 of the 2024 rookie class. Daniels is due for some regression, and with Williams taking a step forward, this race may be far closer than expected come season’s end.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

“Dalton Kincaid (current ranking TE 12) played through injuries last year and gutted his way through it. He’ll be healthier and cheaper this year. Remember, Kincaid is still young, with a lot of talent, on a very explosive Bills’ offense. As for Kyle Pitts, last year should have worked, but Kirk Cousins‘ play fell further than some of Ringo’s bad jokes. If you’re done with Pitts, I understand. However, with a cheap cost of only TE 17, I’ll roll the dice with Kyle and hope Michael Penix can jump-start a lackluster Falcons’ offense. If he can, Pitts could be a major sleeper, but as we’ve seen in the past, that’s a big if.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)

“I’m going to follow the money (famous last words) and take a shot on Khalil Shakir in 2025. 2024 saw Shakir finish in the top 20 in YAC/REC, YRR, and REC Grade per PFF. Now, all those numbers didn’t equate to massive fantasy success; Shakir finished the season as WR39, which is fine when that also happens to be his exact ECR for 2025. I’ll bet on the money, the Josh Allen offense, and an improving player.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)

“Anyone who drafted Xavier Worthy (WR29 in the rankings, 64th overall) last year knew he would be a second-half player. The former Texas star finished his rookie season as the WR33, averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game, totaling six receiving touchdowns and three rushing scores. However, he was the WR10 during the fantasy playoffs, averaging 10.3 targets, an offensive touchdown, and 17.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Worthy dropped 157 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 31.7 fantasy points in the Super Bowl against an elite Philadelphia Eagles defense. He should be the first Chiefs player drafted, a top-20 wide receiver, and a top-40 overall selection, especially with Rashee Rice coming off a significant injury and facing a suspension.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Josh Downs (WR – IND)

“Josh Downs is criminally undervalued at WR44 and 106th overall. Simply put, he was the WR36 last season despite missing four games. Even though he didn’t play the full season, he led the team in receptions and yards per game, averaging 10.5 fantasy points. It’s not hard to see this offense taking a step forward in 2025, and Josh Downs will be heavily targeted regardless of who is under center.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)

Drake London (WR – ATL)

“Drake London is the WR10 in ECR, which I believe is too low. The Falcons WR was a red-zone monster, ending the season with 23 red-zone targets (tied for 3rd-most). He was also a target hog, with the third-highest target rate per route run (30%). London was targeted on 41% of his routes with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Red-zone targets have been one of the biggest predictors of high-end fantasy seasons at the position. 10 is too low for the WR5 in total points through 18 games last season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

TreVeyon Henderson (RB – FA)

“I know TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, but I think he has the skill set to be a PPR darling. He’s fast, a decent pass blocker, and has great hands. He’s going to be a day 1 or day 2 pick in the draft, so he’s going to have an immediate impact wherever he goes. I could easily see him being a top-20 RB this next year, and he’s currently going as RB34. Great value and high upside.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)

Jauan Jennings (WR – SF)

“One player that stuck out to me was Jauan Jennings at ECR 113. Jennings had a breakout 2024 season, and the 49ers shipped off their presumed WR1 in Deebo Samuel. From week 9, Jennings would average 14.9 fantasy points per game and lead the team in targets. Brock Purdy and Jennings connect in the offense, and I expect him to be leaned on. George Kittle is aging, and Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey are coming off injuries. Jennings could easily be a WR2 in fantasy for a team that lost many defensive pieces.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

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