Everything isn’t rainbows and butterflies in fantasy football. While everyone enjoys talking about sleepers and breakouts, avoiding players who perform significantly worse than expectations is also critical. Coincidentally, the following three running backs to avoid are all in the walk years of their rookie deal. Two of the featured running backs have an average draft position (ADP) inside the top 36 in Underdog Fantasy’s best ball drafts, and the third was picked as a high-end RB3 in the 80s.

Running Backs to Avoid at ADP for 2025 Fantasy Football

Here are three running backs to avoid in fantasy football drafts at their current ADP.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): 25.9 Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP)/RB11

Breece Hall burst onto the NFL scene in his rookie season in 2022. It was a dynamic but injury-abbreviated debut. Sadly, Hall tore his ACL in 2022. On the plus side, he’s played in 33 of a possible 34 games since having surgery to repair his torn ACL. Unfortunately, despite having some high-speed plays, Hall’s efficiency and explosive run rate haven’t approached his pre-surgery level. The following table has his rushing stats in three seasons in the NFL via the data suite at Fantasy Points.

Hall's slide in yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt (YACO/ATT), explosive run rate (Explosive Run%), cratering in missed tackles forced and the uptick in stuff rate since his head-turning debut are red flags in his final season on his rookie contract for a rebuilding Jets team.

Interestingly, his expected half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game have increased each season. Yet, Hall's climb in that statistic was largely because of his work as a receiver. Aaron Rodgers has an extensive history of feeding his running backs in the passing game, and the team will reportedly move on from Rodgers.

The new coaching staff might not view Hall as a workhorse, either. The organization drafted Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft, respectively. The Jets could trade Hall to acquire assets for their rebuild, and Hall's value could improve. However, if they don't trade Hall, he could get the rug pulled out from under him to properly evaluate Allen or Davis later in the season, which would be a nightmare during the fantasy playoffs. Hall has an ADP approximately a round earlier than gamers should pull the trigger on him.

Kyren Williams (RB - LAR): 33.6 ADP/RB14

Kyren Williams will actually be a valuable asset at his current ADP if he retains his bell-cow role. Including the playoffs, Williams was the RB9 in expected half-PPR points per game (16.7). However, unless the team announces a long-term contract extension with Williams, I'm unconvinced he'll retain his voluminous role in his last year on a rookie contract.

The Rams used their third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Blake Corum 83rd overall in the third round. Corum didn't have an eye-catching rookie campaign. Nevertheless, Sean McVay compared him stylistically to Williams before the season. The team could also snag another running back in this year's draft -- a class well-regarded by many draft pundits -- if they've soured on Corum.

McVay has previously shifted gears at running back. Williams' production also went backward in 2024. In 2023, Williams had 92.7 rushing yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry, a 4.1% explosive run rate, two fumbles and a 37.3% stuff rate. In 2024, he had 82.3 rushing yards per game, 4.22 yards per carry, a 2.6% explosive run rate, six fumbles (tied for the NFL high among running backs) and a 39.6% stuff rate. Williams must have a bell-cow workload to deliver value at his ADP because of his lack of big-play ability and limited contributions as a pass-catcher. If Williams is available closer to the 40th pick, I'll mix him into my best ball portfolio, but I'm less intrigued by him in home leagues, where I'm drafting only a few teams.

Isiah Pacheco (RB - KC): 81.6 ADP/RB26

Like the two previous running backs, Isiah Pacheco is in the final year of his rookie contract. He's coming off the worst season of the bunch, too. Sadly, Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2 and didn't return until Week 13.

Pacheco never found his footing after returning, and even including his pre-injury production yields uninspiring results. Among 72 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts (including the playoffs), Pacheco was 59th in yards per carry (3.61), 68th in yards after contact per attempt (1.75), 67th in explosive run rate (1.0%), tied for 65th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.08), 42nd in stuff rate (47.9%) and 40th in expected half-PPR points per game (9.0).

Tony Pollard also took time to bounce back from a fractured fibula. However, Pollard was more efficient than Pacheco before they suffered the same injury. Moreover, Pacheco doesn't move the needle as a receiver. The Chiefs are an ideal landing spot for a running back in the NFL Draft; whether in the early, middle or later rounds remains to be seen. Even if the Chiefs add a pass-catching complement who moonlights as a change-of-pace running back, Pacheco's ADP is too rich. His most likely favorable scenario is working as the early-down banger and ceding passing-down duties to a teammate, and being relegated to backup duties is also within his range of outcomes.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.