The wideout position has talent in the early, middle and late rounds of drafts. There’s no shortage of intriguing players. However, a trio of wideouts are unappealing picks at their current average draft position (ADP) at Underdog Fantasy.
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Overvalued Wide Receivers for 2025 Fantasy Football
(ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC) | ADP: 45.5/WR24
Rashee Rice’s fantasy football ADP is outrageous. He had a superb rookie season and was off to a blistering start to 2024. However, the red flags are terrifying for him. First, Rice could face a suspension for his reckless driving incident last August.
Second, Rice’s knee injury was significant.
oKey I’m looking for with Jonathon Brooks:
Will timeline get extended (like Erick All‘s) d/t recurrence, or will 2nd surgery fix what he was struggling with from 1st?
oDon’t expect Rashee Rice to be “normal” until 2026, if ever (LCL/*PLC) https://t.co/ah6w7rL7sW
– Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) January 30, 2025
Doctor Jeff Mueller discussed the brutality of multi-ligament, complex knee injuries and LCL/PLC injuries, specifically in the thread of the embedded tweet. Drafting Rice with a top-100 selection is wish casting and a dreadful allocation of draft capital.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) | ADP: 54.7/WR30
The smoke and mirrors for the Dolphins stopped working in 2024. According to Pro Football Reference, Miami was 22nd in scoring offense (20.3 points per game) and tied for 21st in yards per play (5.1). Additionally, per Sumer Sports, the Dolphins were 20th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play (-0.04) and 15th in success rate (44.2%).
Obviously, Miami’s offense performed worse in games without Tua Tagovailoa. The lefty’s absence is another problem, though. Tagovailoa suffered his fourth documented concussion since 2019 in Week 2. Tua was also out in Week 17 and Week 18 with a hip injury he sustained in Week 15 against the Texans. The Dolphins were still in the hunt for the playoffs, so Tua’s downplaying the severity of the hip injury should be taken with a grain of salt. He also had a compound hip fracture in his final collegiate season (2019) at Alabama.
Tagovailoa’s injury history and the team’s offensive ineffectiveness last year don’t bode well for the fantasy value of their players. I’m generally lower than the consensus on Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith and, more than anyone else, Jaylen Waddle.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since 2021, Waddle has had 15.5 expected half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game, 12.6, 14.2 and 9.7. Waddle’s 9.7 expected half PPR points per game last year were tied for the WR58. In 2024, Waddle also had career lows in yards per route run (1.74), first-read percentage (17.7%), targets per route run (0.19), missed tackles forced per reception (0.09) and end zone targets (two). Unless the Dolphins trade Hill, Waddle is grossly overpriced in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) | ADP: 71.3/WR37
Deebo Samuel has demonstrated a unique skill set in the NFL, earning the “wide-back” moniker from some football pundits for his combination of explosive receiving and rushing ability. Kyle Shanahan has maximized Samuel’s abilities.
Can another head coach or play-caller get the most out of Samuel? We might find out in 2025. Samuel has requested a trade from the 49ers. He could land in a favorable situation. However, Samuel could also end up on a team with an uncreative play-caller. Furthermore, returning to San Francisco’s crowded wide receiver room — saying nothing of Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle — would hurt Samuel’s floor and ceiling.
As bad as the context is for Samuel, the season he’s coming off is even more alarming. The following table has Samuel’s career stats via Pro Football Focus (PFF).
As you can see on the table, Samuel had career lows for PFF receiving grade, receptions per game, receiving yards per game, yards per route run (Y/RR), yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC) and missed tackles forced per reception (MTF/REC) in 2024. Moreover, his YAC/REC has been steadily declining since 2020, and his missed tackles forced per reception took a nose dive compared to 2022 and 2023. Samuel also had his worst and least efficient rushing production since 2020.
Outlier players are fun when things are clicking on all cylinders. Unfortunately, their decline isn't always slow and gradual, and last year might have represented a cliff for Samuel. I'm unwilling to bet on Samuel's 2024 campaign being a blip on the radar with a top-100 pick.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
