This isn’t my first rodeo for shouting out must-draft players. Instead, I’ve previously discussed some hitters and pitchers to target in fantasy baseball drafts around their average draft position (ADP). The ADP landscape has changed since I penned those pieces. Nevertheless, I’ve chosen six fresh faces to highlight as desirable picks in the vicinity of their ADPs and even well ahead of them in a few cases.
This isn’t my first rodeo for shouting out must-draft players. Instead, I’ve previously discussed some hitters and pitchers to target in fantasy baseball drafts around their average draft position (ADP). The ADP landscape has changed since I penned those pieces. Nevertheless, I’ve chosen six fresh faces to highlight as desirable picks in the vicinity of their ADPs and even well ahead of them in a few cases.
Michael King was the 18th-ranked pitcher in 2024 in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric. After a successful transition from relieving to starting for the Yankees in 2023, King’s success followed him to San Diego’s rotation.
According to FanGraphs, King had the following stats in 31 appearances (30 starts) spanning 173.2 innings in 2024.
2.95 ERA
3.59 xERA
3.50 xFIP
3.63 SIERA
1.19 WHIP
8.7 BB%
27.7 K%
12.0 SwStr%
31.3 CSW%
97 stuff+
102 location+
99 pitching+
King’s ERA was better than his ERA estimators last year, but that’s not unusual for the top fantasy pitchers any given season, and his underlying data was stellar. Among qualified pitchers last season, King was 15th in xERA, 18th in xFIP and 19th in SIERA.
The righty’s impact was also even more substantial because of his ability to pile up innings. Only 45 pitchers tossed at least 170 innings last year, and King could build on the career-high 173.2 he sent last year in his first crack at starting for an entire season in the Majors. Like me, the expert consensus rankings (ECR) has a more optimistic outlook for King this season than the drafting community, ranking him 53.2 overall as the 14th-ranked pitcher (P14).
Brenton Doyle is more appealing in leagues with daily lineup changes than those with weekly lineup changes. Nevertheless, he was the 28th-ranked hitter in a breakout 2024 campaign, making the most of playing home games at Coors Field. Doyle’s home ballpark is still by far MLB’s most hitter-friendly venue.
Circling back to Doyle’s 2024 production, from 2023 to 2024, he whittled his strikeout rate from 35.0% to 25.4%, and his batting average surged from .203 to .260. Colorado’s centerfielder had a balance of power and speed, swatting 23 homers and stealing 30 bases in 149 games and 603 plate appearances in 2024.
Doyle hit all over the lineup last year, but 226 of his plate appearances were fifth or lower in the lineup. He’s tabbed to hit atop the order this year, maximizing his potential for plate appearances and runs.
Spencer Schwellenbach handwaved away any need for seasoning in Triple-A before carving up big-league hitters. More impressively, he made only two starts in Double-A before seamlessly transitioning to The Show.
Schwellenbach toed the slab 21 times for the Braves last year, amassing 123.2 innings. He spun a 3.35 ERA, entirely supported by his 3.44 xERA, 3.34 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA. Schwellenbach also tallied a tidy 1.04 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 25.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr% (11.1% was the league average in 2024) and 29.7 CSW%.
The young righty’s pitch modeling was superb, too. Schwellenbach had 105 stuff+, 109 location+ and 113 pitching+. Finally, he had four pitches with at least an 11.4 SwStr%, recording an 11.4 SwStr% on his cutter, 15.2 SwStr% on his slider, 18.2 SwStr% on his curveball and 24.8 SwStr% on his splitter. It’s not outrageous to reach an entire round ahead of Schwellenbach’s ADP in 12-team leagues to ensure he’s on your fantasy baseball team this season.
Sean Manaea might be the single greatest value in fantasy baseball this season. The 33-year-old southpaw re-upped with the Mets on a three-year deal worth $75 million after a rock-solid campaign for them in 2024.
However, I’m most excited about his electrifying end of the season after he lowered his arm angle. In Manaea’s final 12 starts in the regular season, he had the following stats.
75.2 innings
3.09 ERA
3.40 xFIP
3.30 SIERA
0.85 WHIP
6.2 BB%
28.4 K%
13.3 SwStr%
31.3 CSW%
102 stuff+
99 location+
97 pitching+
Unfortunately, Manaea was roughed up for five runs (all earned) by the Dodgers in only two innings in his fourth playoff start last year. His playoff showing was otherwise sharp, allowing two, one and two earned runs with four, six and seven strikeouts in five, seven and five innings in Milwaukee against the Brewers, at home versus the Phillies and in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. The Mets were buying what Manaea was selling after dropping his arm angle, evidenced by the new three-year contract, and fantasy gamers shouldn’t hesitate to snap him up as early as the end of the 12th round or top of the 13th in 12-team mixed leagues. Of course, gamers in leagues with familiar league mates notorious for sticking tight to ADP can push picking Manaea closer to his ADP, but don’t get too cute and miss out on him.
Relievers are a volatile bunch, and the cream of the crop gets shoved up draft boards. Rooting around in the middle-tier to bargain options requires picking your poison. Do you prefer to roll the dice on a hurler with shaky skills expected to start the year in the closer’s gig? Would you prefer to select an eighth-inning setup man with sparkling peripherals and a less-skilled closer blocking them instead?
Jeff Hoffman doesn’t fall into either of the previously discussed buckets. Instead, Hoffman’s shoulder resulted in failed physicals and deals falling through with the Braves and Orioles. Toronto’s organization felt comfortable enough with his physical to ink him to a three-year, $33 million contract.
Hoffman is a steal if Toronto’s gamble on his shoulder pans out. The righty has put together back-to-back excellent seasons with the Phillies. In 68 appearances and 66.1 innings last year, Hoffman had 10 saves, a 2.17 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.39 SIERA and 0.96 WHIP. Moreover, Hoffman had a 6.0 BB%, 33.6 K%, 16.9 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%, 112 stuff+, 98 location+ and 109 pitching+. It’s unwise to take too many risks on players with health concerns. Still, it’s much easier to stomach Hoffman’s health concerns when scanning over the blemishes for pitchers selected outside of the first 10 rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
Michael Toglia is grossly undervalued, namely at larger fantasy baseball providers.
I calculated the biggest discrepancies in ADPs for NBFC drafts and more casual sites (ESPN and Yahoo). Here are the top 5 players going much higher in NFBC drafts:
NFBC drafters have the right idea. The ECR is also much higher on Toglia than his ADP, ranking him 201st overall. According to Baseball Savant, among 252 qualified hitters in 2024, Toglia was 15th in barrels per plate appearances percentage (9.6 Brls/PA%), tied for fifth in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (17.3 Brls/BBE%), tied for 31st in fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity (95.7 miles per hour (MPH)), 17th in hard-hit percentage (50.2% of his batted balls were 95-plus MPH) and 23rd in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (39.2 LA SwSp%).
Toglia was a Statcast darling and 20th among qualified hitters in expected slugging percentage (.503 xSLG). The slugger’s .456 slugging was notably lower than his expected slugging, and his .218 batting average was also markedly lower than his .244 expected batting average (xBA) last season.
Toglia’s light-tower power comes at the expense of contact, resulting in a 32.1 K% last year. However, he helps offset his high strikeout rate with a tasty 11.8 BB%. Toglia’s excellent walk rate was supported by his 26.2 O-Swing% (28.6% was the 2024 league average). If his swing decisions remain excellent outside the strike zone, and he bumps his 64.9 Z-Swing% (66.0% was the league average in 2024) in 2025, he could cut down further on his strikeout rate, which, coupled with better batted-ball luck, would make him less of a drag on batting average.
Toglia swatted 25 homers in just 458 plate appearances last year. A 40-plus homer season isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Toglia this year if Colorado’s staring first baseman gets a full complement of 600-plus plate appearances this year. Toglia also swiped 10 bases last year and should be good for another handful this year. Don’t sleep on Toglia.
Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
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