Greetings and salutations, FantasyPros readers. My name is Kev Mahserejian a.k.a. RotoSurgeon on Twitter/X and this is my first official post.
It is always a pleasure to discuss fantasy baseball with the masses and that is what we are here to accomplish with my top fantasy baseball draft targets. The title is self-explanatory. Ideally, we stray from the obvious early picks such as Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, etc. who we all love and target.
This post seeks to mix draft value with respective upside. Without further ado, here are my top targets.
Greetings and salutations, FantasyPros readers. My name is Kev Mahserejian a.k.a. RotoSurgeon on Twitter/X and this is my first official post.
It is always a pleasure to discuss fantasy baseball with the masses and that is what we are here to accomplish with my top fantasy baseball draft targets. The title is self-explanatory. Ideally, we stray from the obvious early picks such as Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, etc. who we all love and target.
This post seeks to mix draft value with respective upside. Without further ado, here are my top targets.
The position may say “catcher” but do not be fooled, Willson Contreras is a first baseman. The Cardinals are officially ending the Contreras backstop experiment and maximizing his bat. While he is unlikely to play 162 games given his age and injury issues, a 150-game season from a hitter of Contreras’ caliber is invaluable at the catcher spot in fantasy.
Among all catchers with at least 300 plate appearances last season, he was third in per-game fantasy value (via Razzball’s Player Rater). Yet, Contreras is being drafted this year as the seventh catcher with an average draft position (ADP). Of course, first overall was his brother, William Contreras.
Willson Contreras’ counting stats in 2024 were mediocre due to a broken forearm and middle finger but that did not stop him from slashing .262/380/.468 with a career-high .370 wOBA. Switching from catcher to first base should take a massive load off his body.
Kneeling for nine innings every other day as well as practicing the position takes a toll. Improvement as a hitter due to this would be nice, but we should be happy with a similar level of play while staying healthy.
Pablo Lopez is in the prime of his career and pitching for a solid Twins team in a pitcher-friendly home park. The 2024 season was not kind to his ERA, as it rose above 4.00 for the first time since 2019, but at least the peripheral stats look great.
This grants us a proper buying opportunity. Lopez’s xFIP was the third-lowest of his career while his SIERA was the second-lowest despite throwing the 13th-most innings last season (185.1).
Lopez was 11th in strikeouts last season and had his third-best K-BB%. He has pitched 180+ innings in three straight seasons and will have plenty of opportunities for wins on a young, improving Twins roster. The concerns from his shoulder are always present given the history, but at a fantasy baseball ADP of 61 overall (SP18), he is worth drafting in all formats.
Somehow, Baltimore continues to churn out talented infielders. Jordan Westburg is a former 30th-overall pick who broke out last season but only played 107 games due to a fractured right hand in late July. Among second basemen with at least 400 plate appearances, Westburg was fourth in per-game value, yet, he carries an ADP of 107 as the sixth second baseman off the board.
Westburg was third among qualified third basemen and second among qualified second basemen in xwOBA last season, but he underperformed the stat by several points. He now has the benefit of playing in a home park moving in the left-field walls. A majority of Westburg’s power derives from the pull side and he could take advantage of the renovations as the 2025 season progresses.
Michael Toglia is also a big underperformer based on his 2024 expected stats.
Toglia’s average and slugging: .218/.456
Toglia’s expected average and slugging: .244/.503
That is a massive chasm between the actual and expected number, especially for fantasy. Ironically, Rockies hitters typically overperform their expected stats due to the park factors of Coors Field. Toglia does not play a premium position in fantasy but he is still a steal at his current 216 overall ADP.
Speaking of steals, Toglia stole 10 bases last season in 116 games. Corner infielders, especially at first base, typically do not provide speed but that is not the case here. Whether he is in your first base or utility slot, expect a big fantasy year from the 6-foot-5 masher.
This year’s Hunter Brown plays for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Brandon Pfaadt is a filthy, young starting pitcher who was very unlucky last season. His 4.71 ERA is nowhere close to his 3.58 xFIP or 3.65 SIERA.
From June 30th to the season’s end, Pfaadt’s xFIP was a borderline-elite 3.11. He struck out 99 batters and walked just 11 in this span of 84.2 innings. His ERA ballooned to 5.00 during this stretch and may scare drafters off this season.
Patience is necessary for volatile pitchers like Pfaadt early in their careers. They could become more comfortable as they grow in the league and avoid those fringe decisions that lead to massive mistakes. The Diamondbacks’ division is tough given the competition (mainly, the Dodgers and Padres). However, they have a new pitching coach in Brian Kaplan, who could help unlock Pfaadt’s next level.
Cristopher Sanchez is still disrespected in drafts despite a season with a 3.32 ERA in 181.2 innings. Sanchez’s WHIP was a pedestrian 1.24 but his ERA is supported by xFIP and SIERA. WHIP is typically a better indicator of a pitcher’s caliber and sustainability than ERA. Given Sanchez’s high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), however, he has regression baked in.
Sanchez is a groundball-heavy starter similar to fellow lefty Framber Valdez. His groundball/flyball rate improved from 2022 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2024. This allowed Sanchez to surrender just 11 home runs last season in 31 starts. He allowed double that total (22) in 2023 in nearly half the innings (99.1).
Sanchez is only 28 and may continue to improve. His strikeout rate leaves plenty to be desired but given his low walk rate, this could be a middle-class man’s Valdez in 2025 at a much cheaper cost. Sanchez is available as the SP53 around pick 170 in drafts.
