Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice: Framber Valdez, Justin Steele, Mason Miller

While my Twitter/X handle may be @RotoSurgeon, I am not a doctor nor medically licensed in any capacity. The analysis in this article is sourced from actual medical professionals online who provide injury timelines.

Predicting who will or won’t get hurt is not my business. However, we can view who has been hurt in recent history and consider how that injury may or may not impact a player. Severe issues like ligament damage or recurring/nagging issues are always worth noting when paying up for any player.

Injuries are the worst part of any sport. The fantasy baseball impact is a microcosm of their atrocious nature but we do have to consider them for this game.

Fantasy Baseball Injury Risks

Framber Valdez (SP – HOU) ADP: 54

According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the Astros “have yet to approach Valdez or his agent regarding a contract extension” but this is somewhat fishy. Valdez has pitched five straight seasons with an ERA under 3.60. He turned 31 just two months ago and has thrown at least 175 innings in three straight seasons.

Houston is re-tooling after trading Kyle Tucker and losing Alex Bregman to free agency. Nevertheless, they have talent on the roster between the offense and pitching staff. Wouldn’t it make sense to retain their ace? Valdez has not suffered any elbow or shoulder strains but did experience “soreness” in his elbow last April which resulted in missing nearly one month. The injury could be more than meets the eye despite his stellar performance throughout 2024.

Valdez is not a full fade given the vague nature of this elbow injury and his fringe-elite status yet dropping him down rankings is likely wise.

Mason Miller (RP – ATH) ADP: 71

The A’s have a legitimate star closer…for how long? Miller damaged his elbow early in 2023 and returned to pitch a full season in 2024. Miller was a starter until this injury which forced his conversion into the bullpen. While he has thrived in his new role, Miller may come with a shorter fuse than most hard-throwing relievers.

Miller averaged 101.1 miles per hour on his fastball last season and like Chisholm, may not have his play impacted this season but comes at an elevated risk due to the nature of UCLs which do not fully heal without surgery. Sprains are tears no matter how mild. Miller is an elite closer and playing for an A’s team which should win more games in 2025. He is worth drafting in roto formats after the top tier of closers given the per-game impact but for head-to-head leagues that have playoffs, he is a fade.

Justin Steele (SP- CHC) ADP: 121

In 2023, Justin Steele experienced “throbbing” in his elbow which resulted in a two-week absence. Last year, Steele managed “left flexor tendinitis” in his elbow in August yet returned for two starts in September. Steele’s performance has not been impacted by these injuries but this does not suggest his elbow is fully intact either.

Steele is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league and would be worth drafting ahead of ADP without these injuries. Sadly, they have occurred and we must consider them within our preseason evaluation. Steele is fine to draft if he falls given his level of talent and the fact that his pitching is unaffected thus far but the best course of action would be to trade him shortly after the season in a “sell-high” scenario.