Most players are worth drafting at a certain point. If some of the following pitchers fall below their average draft position (ADP), they would be worth selecting. Yet, some of the forthcoming pitchers might also be undesirable at any cost for the damage they can potentially do to your squad’s pitching statistics. Here are a few fantasy baseball draft busts to avoid at the pitcher position.

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Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers

Robert Suarez (RP – SD) | Pitcher 45/116.6 ADP

Robert Suarez bounced back from an unlucky 2023 campaign, but his underlying data was more good than great. In 65 appearances spanning 65 innings in 2024, Suarez’s 2.77 ERA significantly outpaced his 3.05 xERA, 3.81 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA.

The hard-throwing reliever’s 1.05 WHIP was also decent, but his nine wins and 36 saves did the heavy lifting for his fantasy value. Suarez’s 22.9% strikeout rate was only slightly better than the MLB average of 22.6% in 2024. His plate discipline didn’t inspire confidence for a surge in 2025. Among 203 relievers with at least 40 innings in 2024, Suarez’s 23.9 CSW% was 194th.

Suarez’s profile isn’t that of a lockdown closer. In some bullpens, that would be OK. In San Diego’s bullpen, Suarez has little room for error. Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada are lights-out alternatives who could overtake Suarez at the drop of a hat. San Diego’s incumbent closer is an appealing selection at his CBS ADP (143) or Fantrax ADP (166). He is an easy fade at his Yahoo ADP (108), RTS ADP (87), NFBC ADP (80) or composite ADP between all five sites.

Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR) | Pitcher 59/158.2 ADP

Kevin Gausman’s dropoff last year was starker than his 3.83 ERA suggests. The table below compares his statistics between 2023 and 2024 via FanGraphs.

Gausman's ERA estimators ranged from sub-par to putrid, and his nosedive for strikeouts and called strikes plus swinging strikes percentage were alarming, especially since they were accompanied by a slight uptick in walk rate and a cratering to his stuff+ grade.

Probably not coincidentally, Gausman's average fastball velocity was down from 94.7 miles per hour (MPH) in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. There are too many red flags in Gausman's 2024 profile for gamers to draft him as a top-60 pitcher. He's a lousy gamble unless he falls closer to the 180th-pick range.

Luis Gil (SP - NYY) | Pitcher 63/173.4 ADP

Luis Gil won the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year Award, but his season was a tale of two halves, and even his full-season totals left something to be desired. In 19 starts totaling 102.1 innings in the first half, Gil had a 3.17 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 4.00 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.7% walk rate, 28.2% strikeout rate, 11.6 SwStr%, 27.2 CSW%, 111 stuff+, 94 location+ and 100 pitching+.

Gil's second half was markedly worse. In 10 starts spanning 49.1 innings in the second half, he had a 4.20 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 4.70 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP, 12.8% walk rate, 24.3% strikeout rate, 11.8 SwStr%, 26.7 CSW%, 109 stuff+, 95 location+ and 100 pitching+.

Perhaps Gil hit a rookie wall. Nevertheless, including his stellar first half, Gil had just a 3.80 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.1% walk rate and a 26.8% strikeout rate for the entire season. Gil's walk rate was nearly 4% higher than the league average (8.2%), and his 48.8 Zone% (51.3% league average) and 54.8 F-Strike% (62.4% league average) don't provide encouragement for him to improve his walk rate drastically. The righty's 11.7 SwStr% wasn't special compared to the league average of 11.1% last year. Gil's strikeout rate could dip. Finally, he had the following postseason numbers in two starts lasting only eight innings:

• 6.75 ERA
• 7.07 xFIP
• 6.73 SIERA
• 1.63 WHIP
• 13.9 BB%
• 11.1 K%
• 2.25 HR/9

Gil would be an acceptable selection around the 200th pick, but a top-175 pick is too rich for the 26-year-old righty.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.