New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -14, O/U 43.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Tampa Bay needs a win to clinch the NFC South title. The Saints will run out their collection of backups and practice squad players fully for one more game.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Baker Mayfield
• Bucky Irving
• Mike Evans

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Rachaad White (RB)

Since Week 15, White has averaged 11.3 touches and 58.4 total yards. He has played 46% of the snaps overall, 33% of the rushing play snaps, 56% of the passing downs snaps, and 50% of the red zone snaps. Overall this season, among 67 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a viable RB2/flex this week. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

Since Week 14, McMillan has been the WR14 in fantasy points per game while seeing two red-zone targets (six touchdowns). He has had an 18.3% target share, a 25% air-yard share, 2.09 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. “McMillion” will keep the hot streak rolling this week to close the fantasy season. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Johnson has finished as a TE1 in three of his last six games while seeing five red-zone targets. Since Week 14, with Rattler taking all or most of the starting quarterback snaps, Johnson has had a 15.3% target share, 1.22 YPRR, and a team-leading 24.1% first-read share. He’s a great streaming option this week and easily could be a TE1 again. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Payne Durham (TE)

Cade Otton will miss the Bucs regular-season finale. This leads to another start for Durham. Over the last two games as the Bucs starting tight end, Durham has had a 65.9% route share, a 13.3% target share, 1.16 YPRR, and an 11.3% first-read share. He has one red zone target over the last two weeks. Durham is streaming viable this week. New Orleans has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

There’s no running back or wide receiver from New Orleans that I want to start this week. Spencer Rattler hasn’t proven that he can support either position to a nice fantasy day. The running back touches could also be split between 2-3 different players, rendering no one fantasy-viable. 

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -1.5, O/U 37
• Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Houston has the No. 4 seed locked up. They have nothing to play for this week. We could easily see Houston rest their starters after a drive or two. Tennessee doesn’t have anything to play for this week.

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley is the WR38 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets among wide receivers. He has four red-zone targets in his last four games. He has five top-24 weekly scoring finishes this season among wide receivers. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized single-high with 58.5% of their defensive snaps. This season against single-high, Ridley has had a 26.5% target share, 2.36 YPRR, and a 34.8% first-read share. Ridley is a volume-based WR2/3 this week.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)

Since Week 15, Okonkwo has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 24.3% target share, 2.19 YPRR (60.7 receiving yards per game), and a 33.3% first-read share. He has one red-zone target in the last three games (zero touchdowns). In the last five games, Houston has ranked 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Okonkwo is a TE1 again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Houston has nothing to play for this week. If you have Nico Collins and Joe Mixon I get if you have to start them, but you’re likely praying that they pay off with a score early. The Texans could pull their starters at any moment in Week 18. The fact that Tennessee is favored this week tells you all you need to know about Houston’s starters’ availability this week.

Tennessee has stated that Will Levis and Mason Rudolph will both play in Week 18, so we can’t count on either quarterback in Superflex. Tony Pollard could play this week, but it’s tough to think that Tennessee will play him in a bell-cow role at less than 100% when their season is already over. Calvin Ridley and Chigoziem Oknokwo are the only players from this offense that I could possibly consider starting this week for fantasy.

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Watch live football all season long with Fubo

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -4.5, O/U 42.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams are out of playoff contention. They will both run out their starters in full-time roles.

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• George Kittle
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joshua Dobbs (QB)

Dobbs draws the start this week with Brock Purdy out. Last year, Dobbs was the QB19 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 outings. Among 48 qualifying passers, he ranked 43rd in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 35th in CPOE, and 37th in highly accurate throw rate. Dobbs’ rushing equity was a wonderful boost to his ceiling and floor weekly as he chipped in with 5.9 rushing attempts and 32.4 rushing yards per game. Dobbs could post scintillating QB1 numbers this week against the Cardinals’ burnable secondary. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the 13th-most yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray is the QB12 in fantasy points per game. If you have rostered Murray this season, you know the rollercoaster that you have experienced weekly, so I don’t have to dive too deep into that. It definitely hasn’t been as stable as that face-value ranking might project. Since Week 12, Murray has only one QB1 outing. Since Week 12, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 29th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 15th in catchable target rate. Murray’s rushing has returned some, but still not to the extent that would be widely perceived with his skillset, with at least 30 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Murray could be a QB1 again this week, but I’m not expecting a monster performance against what has become a middle-of-the-road pass defense for the 49ers. Since Week 12, San Francisco has ranked 15th in yards per attempt and 16th in CPOE while giving up the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Michael Carter (RB)

With James Conner and Trey Benson on the IR, Carter will lead Arizona’s rushing attack this week. Carter has flashed the ability in a limited sample size that made me love him when he entered the NFL. With his 18 carries, Carter has had a 22% missed tackle rate and 2.83 yards after contact per attempt. Carter could return RB1 production this week if Arizona commits to him as the workhorse back. We’ll likely see some of DeeJay Dallas this week. The question is how much. Since Week 12, San Francisco has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt.

Isaac Guerendo (RB)

Guerendo returned to the lineup with a 61% snap rate, 13 touches, and 99 total yards. Guerendo has been an explosive dual-threat back during his time as the 49ers’ starter, with 16.6 touches and 100.6 total yards per game. He has had an impressive 7.3% explosive run rate and a 23% missed tackle rate. He should have another RB1 outing this week against Arizona’s struggling run defense. Since Week 12, they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Last week was the Pearsall breakout game I’ve been waiting for all year. He was the WR7 in fantasy with a 25% target share (ten targets), 4.27 YPRR (141 receiving yards), a 42.7% air-yard share, and a 34.6% first-read share. Pearsall has been trending in the right direction on a per-route basis. Since Week 14, among 99 qualifying wide receivers, Pearsall ranks 27th in separation and 17th in route win rate. We’ll see if Pearsall can build upon last week for another strong game to close the 2024 season. Pearsall ran 55% of his routes last week from the slot. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr. never came close to equaling the preseason hype this season as the WR40 in fantasy points per game. His role has been questionable at times this season as the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and only 32nd in red zone targets. This week, sadly, looks like a quiet game is coming for Harrison Jr. to close his rookie season. Since Week 12, San Francisco has had the second-highest rate of single-high (68.6%). Since Week 8, Harrison Jr.’s once impressive numbers against single-high have fallen off with a 21.9% target share, 1.46 YPRR, and a 29.7% first-read share. His market share metrics have been nice, but the production hasn’t been good. Harrison Jr. is a sit this week. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 10, Jennings has been the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He faces an Arizona secondary that, since Week 10, has had the second-highest two-high rate (59.2%). Since Week 10, against two high, Jennings has had a 21.7% target share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Jennings has eight red-zone targets (three scores) since Week 10. Jennings will see plenty of volume this week, but he might just finish with another WR3 stat line. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Samuel has been ruled out for Week 18 (ribs/wrist).

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -10.5, O/U 40
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Denver needs a win to get into the playoffs. They will be going all out. Kansas City has the top seed in the AFC locked up. They will be resting all of their starters.

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bo Nix
• Courtland Sutton

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Carson Wentz (QB)

This is the second year in a row Wentz has had a Week 18 cameo start to close the regular season. Last year, it was with the Rams when he passed for 163 yards with 6.7 yards per attempt and a 2:1 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio. He surprised everyone by logging 17 rushing attempts with 56 rushing yards (one rushing score). He finished with 27.1 fantasy points as the QB2 for the week. I don’t think Wentz pulls that off this week, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be a solid QB2. Denver’s pass defense has faltered recently (since Week 12), allowing the most passing yards per game, the 11th-most yards per attempt, and the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR)

Mims has become a more integral part of the Denver passing attack, with 47% of the snaps played in back-to-back games and with 100-yard receiving outings in two of his last four games (three scores). The Chiefs have the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (61.9%). Since Week 11, against two high, Mims has had a 14.2% target share, a 37% TPRR, a team-leading 27.8% of the receiving yardage, 4.78 YPRR, and a 21.8% first-read share. Mims’ numbers against two high have been outstanding. Since Week 12, Kansas City has been tough against perimeter wide receivers (seventh-fewest PPR points per target), but Mims could overcome the bad matchup this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR)

Smith-Schuster isn’t the sexiest flex play in Week 18, but he could be quite productive this week operating as Kansas City’s WR1. It’ll be either him or Justin Watson who likely operates the number one, but I would rather push my chips in with Smith-Schuster, who could move inside at times to avoid Patrick Surtain. Smith-Schuster also displayed that he still has some juice (Week 5) when called upon. Overall, he has had a 12% TPRR, 1.14 YPRR, and a 5.4% first-read share, but I’m taking most of those numbers with a grain of salt as he has operated as the team’s WR4/5 for most of the season. Since Week 12, Denver’s pass defense has been struggling to defend wide receivers, giving up the second-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

We have dealt with the uncertainty in the Denver backfield all season. If you are playing for a Fantasy Football Championship in Week 18, you’re likely doing it without the help of a Denver running back. This isn’t the week to turn to this backfield for help. Since Week 12, Kansas City has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest rushing success rate, and the fifth-lowest EPA per rush.

The Chiefs’ backfield workload could be divided up 2-3 different ways in Week 18. This isn’t the matchup to go diving into this backfield for a desperation flex play. Since Week 11, Denver has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 14th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-best stuff rate. Fade the entire Kansas City backfield this week.

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET