Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 18 Motivation: Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention. They will play their starters as they have been over the last few weeks. Washington is locked in as the sixth or seventh seed for the playoffs. If they win, they will be the sixth seed. I worry that if Washington can jump out to a big lead in the first half, they could bench their players in the second half or pull them at some point. Yes, I know Dan Quinn has said they will “fight like hell,” but that doesn’t mean anything to me.
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jayden Daniels | QB | QB1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Must-Sit |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | Must-Sit |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WR1/2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | Must-Sit |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Must-Sit |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Must-Sit |
| Zach Ertz | TE | Must-Sit |
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trey Lance | QB | QB2 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB2 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | WR4/5 |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR | WR6 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
I worry that Washington could pull players at some point in this week’s game, but Daniels and McLaurin could easily post nice scores with only a half of play with their big play abilities. The rest of the Washington offense I’m staying away from this week.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 12, Dowdle has been the RB19 in fantasy points per game averaging 21.8 touches and 111.6 total yards per game. Since Week 12, among 55 qualifying backs, Dowdle has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Washington run defense that improved some but remains burnable. Since Week 12, they have ranked 18th in missed tackle rate while giving up the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt and sixth-highest zone rushing success (since Week 12, Dowdle 70% zone).
Last week, Cooks inherited CeeDee Lamb‘s high-volume role in the passing game with a 27.6% target share, a 52.9% air-yard share, and a 35% first-read share. He finished with 2.74 YPRR but only four receptions and 52 receiving yards. He should be considered a strong flex that will buoy between WR2/3 value this week, facing a pass defense that, since Week 12, has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, Robinson played 54% of the snaps with 15 touches and 69 total yards. I could see Washington splitting the backfield work three ways this week, with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez getting run late. Sit Robinson unless you have no other choice this week. He could be sitting on the bench in the second half of this week’s game.
There’s no reason to let the integral veteran play a full game this week. He is Washington’s WR2 and a massive part of their passing offense. Washington could easily deploy John Bates and Ben Sinnott this week in the second half of the game while Ertz soaks up some much-needed rest.
Since Week 14, Ferguson has been the TE29 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t seen a red-zone target while handling a 17.7% target share and 20.7% first-read share while producing only 1.35 YPRR and 28.3 receiving yards per game. Sit Ferguson this week. Over the last five weeks, Washington has allowed the tenth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 18 Motivation: Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they should still run out their starters like usual.
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Mac Jones | QB | QB2 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB3 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR1 |
| Parker Washington | WR | WR6 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TE2 |
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Flacco | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Sermon | RB | RB5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR6 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 14, Jones has been the QB23 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 14, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones has ranked 24th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in catchable target rate. He has one QB1 outing during this stretch (QB8). Jones should post decent QB2 numbers this week in a nice matchup. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the eighth-highest CPOE.
Over the last two games, Bigsby has played 35% of the snaps overall, 52% of the rushing play snaps, and had a 50% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. He has averaged 12 touches and 42 total yards. This backfield has become a headache weekly with no one really having much fantasy value. Bigsby is a middling flex again this week. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Over the last two games, Etienne has had a 49% snap rate overall, a 48% snap rate with rushing downs, and a 50% snap rate in the red zone. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 56 total yards. Etienne has become a boring flex play that is best left on the bench. He has a nice matchup this week, but it’s worth wondering if he will see the volume to take advantage of it. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
In Pittman’s four starts with Joe Flacco under center, he has had a 17.6% target share, 1.50 YPRR (48.8 receiving yards per game), and a 19.8% first-read share. Pittman has four red-zone targets in his four games with Flacco. Last week, he was the unquestioned WR1 for Indy with a 26.3% target share (ten targets), 3.03 YPRR (109 receiving yards), and a 31% first-read share. Pittman could close the season strong against a Jacksonville secondary that, since Week 12, has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Downs was a forgotten asset in the passing game with a 10.5% target share (four targets), a 7.4% air-yard share, 22 receiving yards, and a 13.8% first-read share. This feels like an outlier game, more than a change of the guard, with Pittman and Alec Pierce leading the way for Indy. In the four other starts this season with Downs running routes for Flacco, he has had a 27.6% target share, 2.43 YPRR (66.8 receiving yards per game), and a 33% first-read share. Downs should have a bounceback game this week against a secondary that has ranked 15th in PPR points per target versus slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Anthony Richardson has been ruled out. Flacco will start for Indy’s regular season finale. In Flacco’s five starts this season, he has one top-12 finish in weekly scoring. Outside of that game, he has surpassed QB17 in weekly fantasy scoring only once. This season, among 45 qualifying passers, Flacco ranks 18th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 28th in CPOE, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. He has been a decent QB2, but anyone expecting last year’s magic from Flacco is barking up the wrong tree. Flacco is a QB2 again this week, facing a Jacksonville pass defense that has played better football over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-fewest yards per attempt and the 14th-lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback.
CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18 Motivation: Philly is locked into the No. 2 seed and will be sitting their starters. The Giants will play their starters as they have been doing, as they are out of the playoff picture.
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drew Lock | QB | QB2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | RB1/2 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | RB4 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | WR1 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | WR3 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | WR4/5 |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE | TE3 |
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tanner McKee | QB | QB2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB2 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | WR4/5 |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | WR4/5 |
| Ainias Smith | WR | WR5/6 |
| E.J. Jenkins | TE | TE3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, McKee had only four dropbacks, but he made the most of his opportunities with 13.5 yards per attempt, two scores, and a perfect passer rating. In the preseason, he looked decent (among 25 qualifying passers), ranking 20th in yards per attempt, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in passing grade. McKee is a solid QB2 this week, stepping in for Kenny Pickett (ribs) and Jalen Hurts (concussion protocol). Since Week 12, New York has allowed the third-most yards per attempt, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.
With Saquon Barkley sitting this week, Gainwell should lead the backfield. On a per-touch basis, Gainwell has been a below-average backup with a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. Gainwell should see 13-15 opportunities. The Giants’ run defense could allow him to pull off his best impression of Boston Scott this week as Philly’s “Week 18 Giant Slayer.” Since Week 12, New York has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 13, Tracy Jr. has been the RB23 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.2 touches and 65 total yards. He has been explosive this season, with a 5.1% explosive run rate and a 19% missed tackle rate. Tracy Jr. is an RB2 with RB1 upside this week. Philly’s run defense has been the team’s weak link for the last few weeks, and I don’t think it will improve with backups playing this week. Since Week 12, they have allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Over the last two weeks, Robinson has been the WR31 and WR23 in weekly scoring (PPR). He has had a 29% target share (nine targets per game) with 66.5 receiving yards per game (2.38 YPRR) and a 34.9% first-read share. He has three red-zone targets over the last two games. WIN’Dale Robinson could help put Fantasy GMs over the top in Week 18 as a flex play. Since Week 12, Philly has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
*I don’t want to depend on any Philly pass catcher this week with an unproven passer under center. None of Philly’s starting receivers have flashed upside when given opportunities this season. Philly could lean heavily on their ground game and spread out targets among the receiving options, with none of them offering anything more than WR4/5 production.*
Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Since Week 13, Lock has been the QB18 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 13, among 37 qualifying passers, Lock has been a below-average quarterback, ranking 28th in yards per attempt, 29th in passer rating and CPOE, and 30th in highly accurate throw rate. Yes, he had a magical game against the Colts last week, but we have a larger sample this season and in Lock’s career to prove that he is nothing more than a “break glass in case of emergency” backup quarterback. Since Week 12, Philly has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Yes, I know these defensive metrics are a reflection of the starting defense, but I trust Vic Fangio’s ability to draw up a strong defensive game plan, and Lock is terrible enough to stumble against backups this week.
CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Week 18 Motivation: The Bills have nothing to play for this week. They are locked into the No. 2 seed. Their starters could play a drive or two, but they will likely exit sometime in the second quarter. Some of Buffalo’s starters could sit this game out. New England has been out of playoff contention for weeks and will play their guys.
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | Must-Sit |
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB | QB2 |
| Ray Davis | RB | RB3 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR4/5 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | WR5/6 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WR6 |
| Quintin Morris | TE | TE3 |
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | RB3/4 |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | RB2/3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR5 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR3/4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | WR6 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | Out |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
If you have Josh Allen and James Cook and risk them getting pulled early, then you can play them, but in many instances, I won’t plug them in this week. Instead, I’ll opt for players that I know could see a full four-quarters of playing time. It’s too difficult for players to thread the needle with that limited playing time and produce nice scores for fantasy.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Maye is the QB19 in fantasy points per game while ranking eighth in rushing yards and fifth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. He has four QB1 weekly finishes this season (QB10, QB7, QB10, QB11). Among 45 qualifying passers, Maye ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 18th in CPOE, and 13th in highly accurate throw rate. Maye could be a QB1 this week. Since Week 12, Buffalo’s pass defense has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the 13th-highest CPOE.
I’m assuming that James Cook sits this week or plays only one or two series and then exits. Ty Johnson could factor into this backfield, but Davis could easily lead the backfield and play a workhorse role this week. There is some risk with playing him this week because we don’t know how the backfield rotation will shake out. Davis has looked good this season when he has gotten opportunities with a 27% missed tackle rate. If he gets the work this week, he should be a nice flex play with RB1/2 upside. Since Week 12, New England has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest gap rushing success rate (Davis 60.2% gap).
Since Week 9, Douglas has been the WR50 in fantasy points per game with two weeks as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Since Week 9, Douglas has had a 16.4% target share, 1.49 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share. He has four red-zone targets (two scores) in his last four games. Douglas is a decent flex again this week in PPR leagues. Since Week 12, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Over the last two games, Jerod Mayo has made more head-scratching decisions. One of them being Gibson’s role as the team’s lead back. Since Week 16, Gibson has played 55-59% of the snaps, averaging 12 touches and 49.5 total yards. Would I be surprised if Rhamondre Stevenson reclaims his lead-back status this week? Nope, not at all. I don’t trust this coaching staff and their usage of players. I don’t want to count on any of these New England backs this week. I have no clue how playing time will unfold in Week 18. Sit Gibson this week.
Over the last two games, Stevenson has played 44-45% of the snaps. Antonio Gibson has been the team’s lead back. I can’t stand what this coaching staff has done all season long with their player usage. Last week, Stevenson had two carries for one yard. There’s no way that anyone can trust this coaching staff’s player usage this week. Stevenson could see a similar workload this week as the backup, or he could reclaim his lead-back status. There’s no way to project what these coaches will do. Avoid this backfield in Week 18. Sit Stevenson.
CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET
