Well, we’ve made it. To the final week of the NFL regular season and fantasy football season. If you’re playing for a championship in Week 18…I’m sorry. Playing time, team motivations to play their starters for a full game, and injuries make it a wild ride. This is why I need to preface this week’s article. There will be some players in the “Must-Start” category that might not line up at the top of ECR, but with consideration to playing time, matchups, etc., if you have them on your roster, you should be starting them this week. Week 18 can be a giant headache that feels like a hybrid of the NFL preseason.

I also need to state here that you won’t see much (if any) player incentive talk in this Primer. Many times, all of the talk surrounding contract incentives for Week 18 is noisy and unimportant. Could a heavy workload for one of the best players in an offense align with contract incentives? Yep. That doesn’t mean any team is force-feeding the ball to a certain player to allow them to hit their contact incentives. It’s just as simple as “Let’s get the ball to our best players.” If that happens to allow someone to hit certain contract incentives, ok.

If you’re fighting for a Fantasy Football championship this week, “may the odds be ever in your favor.”

This brings to a close another wonderful season of the Primer. I cherish the opportunity to write this article weekly. Can it be tedious, arduous, and exhausting? Sure, but few things that truly are worth doing are ever easy. I consider it a blessing to write this article and continue to uphold the standard that my late friend and mentor Mike Tagliere set when he embarked upon this weekly journey for FantasyPros.

I love you all and can’t wait to dive into NFL Draft and dynasty content immediately after Week 18.

Welcome to the Week 18 Primer. Enjoy.

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

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Fantasy Football Primer

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Watch Live on Fubo
• BAL -20, O/U 41.5
• Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Baltimore needs a win to clinch the AFC North crown. They will play their starters until the game is comfortably out of reach. Considering the current state of Cleveland’s offense, that might not take long, but it will likely be enough snaps for Baltimore’s skill players to get theirs before sitting. Cleveland has nothing to play for outside of pride.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry
• Zay Flowers
• Mark Andrews

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jeudy has had a career resurgence as the WR24 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking tenth in receptions and sixth in receiving yards among wide receivers. He ranks 34th in deep targets and has only one red-zone target in his last six games. He could produce a stat line like last week’s against Baltimore. Last week, he had a 38.3% target share, a 52.6% air-yard share, and a 61.5% first-read share. He finished with 12 receptions and 94 receiving yards (2.19 YPRR) with one end-zone target. Baltimore’s secondary has improved immensely, but Jeudy will likely get peppered with targets again this week. It puts him immediately back in the WR2 conversation. Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman is the WR50 in fantasy points per game this season with four top-24 weeks in fantasy scoring. He has two red-zone targets and three scores across his last three games. Since Week 14, Cleveland has had the third-highest single-high rate (66.9%). Since Week 9, he has had a 10.8% target share, 1.60 YPRR, and an 11.8% first-read share against single high. The volume hasn’t been great, and the floor is low for Bateman, but we also have seen the ceiling multiple times this season. If you need upside this week at flex, Bateman is a decent dart to throw. Since Week 12, Cleveland has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Isaiah Likely (TE)

Likely is the TE19 in fantasy points per game, with two red zone targets and three scores in his last four games. Likely has five TE1 outings this season. Since Week 14, Cleveland has had the third-highest single-high rate (66.9%). Since Week 9, against single high, Likely has had a 12% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. If you have tight-end issues this week with your starter sitting out, LIkely is a viable streaming option. Cleveland has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson could both play this week. The quarterback position for Cleveland is a must-sit/avoid situation for fantasy this week.

D’Onta Foreman (RB)

Foreman has been below replacement level this year in efficiency, with only a 3% missed tackle rate and 1.72 yards after contact per attempt. Foreman is an uninspiring volume-based flex play this week. He’ll likely have 13-17 touches this week, but the team’s red zone trips might be limited, so expecting him to score and save his fantasy day is likely a fool’s errand. Baltimore remains an elite run defense. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Watch Live on Fubo
• CIN -2.5, O/U 48
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Cincy can sneak into the playoffs with a win and losses by Denver and Miami. Cincy will go all out this week. Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North with a win and the No. 3 seed. The Steelers will also play all their starters this week.

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins
• George Pickens

*If Chase Brown is ultimately ruled out, Khalil Herbert is a plug-and-play RB1. Brown has been listed as questionable this week (ankle). He hasn’t practiced all week.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson has been a serviceable QB2 for most of the season as the QB19 in fantasy points per game. He has done a good job of protecting the football and hitting chunk plays down the field, but overall, his passing metrics aren’t amazing the deeper you dig in. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson ranks 12th in yards per attempt and passer rating while sitting at ninth in CPOE, but he is also 36th in catchable target rate and 20th in highly accurate throw rate. We all know what Wilson did the last time that he faced this pass defense. I’m not projecting that he chucks it for 414 yards and three scores again (QB4), but he should post nice QB2 numbers with the upside to be a QB1 this week. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the seventh-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Najee Harris (RB)

Since Week 14, Harris hasn’t been the workhorse for Pittsburgh, averaging only 38% of the snaps with 11.8 touches and 49.3 total yards per game. He has held the slight edge in the red zone, though, with a 53% snap rate. His per-touch numbers haven’t been terrible in many respects, but they haven’t been amazing either. Since Week 14, Harris has had a 4.5% explosive run rate, a 9% missed tackle rate, and 2.57 yards after contact per attempt. Harris should find some success this week, but with his workload cut, he’s only a nice flex play and not an RB2. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt, and ranked 15th in missed tackle rate.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Since Week 14, Warren has been the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.3 touches and 72.8 total yards. Over the last two games, his usage has exploded, with a 60% snap rate, 16.5 touches, and 102 total yards per game as the RB20 & RB7 in weekly scoring. Since Week 16, Warren has had a 69% red zone snap rate while posting 3.39 yards after contact per attempt. He has looked healthy and turned back the hands of time with 2023 vibes. Warren should lead the way this week as a strong RB2 with RB1 upside. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt, and ranked 15th in missed tackle rate.

Calvin Austin (WR)

Since Week 7, Austin has had three top-36 weekly wide receiver finishes while seeing only three red zone targets. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling this week, but he is flex-viable. Since Week 10, Cincy has the fourth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (59.1%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Austin has had a 12.6% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 16.5% first-read share. Since Week 12, Cincy has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the second-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Since Week 12, Freiermuth has been the TE10 in fantasy points per game while seeing four red zone targets (three scores). Since Week 12, he has had a 16.2% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Freiermuth is a locked-in TE1 this week. Cincy has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

N/A

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -10, O/U 41
• Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Chicago has been eliminated from playoff contention, but they will play their starters. Green Bay is locked into the No. 7 seed,, but if the Commanders lose and they win they could move up to the No. 6 seed. These two games kick off at the same time. Green Bay is likely scoreboard watching this week. If Washington is up early by a large amount, Green Bay could easily sit their starters in the second half.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Since Week 11, Allen has been the WR18 in fantasy points per game with four top-15 wide receiver outings in weekly scoring. He has nine red-zone targets in his last seven games played. Since Week 11, he has had a 27.3% target share, 1.88 YPRR (68.3 receiving yards per game), and a 30.9% first-read share. Allen should lead the way again this week for the Bears’ aerial attack. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Since Week 11, Williams has been the QB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 27th in yards per attempt, 20th in CPOE, and eighth in off-target rate. He has three QB1 outings in his last seven games. Williams should be considered a decent QB2 this week, and anything more than that is just icing on the cake. Since Week 12, Green Bay has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 15th in CPOE allowed.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Since Week 11, Swift has been the RB33 in fantasy points per game, averaging only 15.4 touches and 69.4 total yards per game. In his last seven games, his tackle-breaking metrics have been pitiful, with an 11% missed tackle rate and 2.18 yards after contact per attempt. Swift is just another snooze-worthy flex play this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

DJ Moore (WR)

Since Week 11, Moore has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 26% target share with 1.75 YPRR and a 34% first-read share. He has drawn two end-zone targets while averaging 68.9 receiving yards per game. Moore is a volume-based WR3 this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Odunze missed practices (illness) until he managed a full session on Friday. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 18. Since Week 11, he has been the WR53 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers. Since Week 11, he has had a 19.4% target share, a 35.4% air-yard share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. Odunze likely has another quiet week against the Packers. Sit him this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet hasn’t had more than 26 receiving yards or 8.9 fantasy points scored in a game since Week 12. He has only one red-zone target in his last five games. He has essentially been phased out of the offense. Sit Kmet again this week.

This week, Josh Jacobs stated, “I don’t see me taking that many carries in this game.” Jacobs is tipping Green Bay’s hand for the backfield but also possibly for the entire skill player depth chart. The Packers could utilize as many as three backs this week, with possibly none of them hitting a ceiling or it being a blind dice roll. Green Bay has utilized a wide receiver committee all year, and now we have a game environment where Matt LaFleur is incentivized to ramp up the committee even further. The entire Green Bay depth chart is an avoid this week as the volume could be dispersed among all their skill players.

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -8, O/U 48
• Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Atlanta will be going all out this week. If they win and the Bucs lose, they can take the NFL South title. Both of their games kick off early, so Atlanta won’t have the luxury of knowing the outcome of the Bucs game. Carolina will run out their starters as they have been doing. They are out of playoff contention.

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bryce Young (QB)

Since Week 12, Young has been the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 38 qualifying passers, he has ranked tenth in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate. Young has also been adding something with his legs, with 3.8 rushing attempts and 26.7 rushing yards per game. Young is a strong option at quarterback again this week. Since Week 12, Atlanta has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied) and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 16th in passer rating and 18th in CPOE.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB)

Over the last two weeks, Penix Jr. has finished as the QB30 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring, averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. He has had his bumps adjusting to the fast-paced NFL. Since Week 16, among 33 qualifying passers, Penix Jr. has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. His accuracy has been spotty at best, ranking 29th in CPOE and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Penix Jr. could have a breakout game this week, but it’s easily possible that Atlanta rides their run game this week. He does have a nice matchup this week. Since Week 12, Carolina has allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest CPOE.

Raheem Blackshear (RB)

Last week, Blackshear was the team’s workhorse back, playing 77% of the snaps, but it only equaled eight touches and 20 total yards. He hasn’t done anything with his small workload this season to suggest Week 18 will look much better. Blackshear has only 11 rushing attempts, but he has only managed one missed tackle and 1.91 yards after contact per attempt. He does have a nice matchup on the ground this week, so it’s possible that he could be a nice play flex if his volume did jump to 12-14 touches. Since Week 12, Atlanta has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and ranked 18th in yards after contact per attempt.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Since Week 12, Thielen has been the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 22.3% target share, 2.42 YPRR (77 receiving yards per game), and a 30.2% first-read share. In his last six games, Thielen has six end-zone targets and five red-zone targets. He should have another stellar week against a secondary that, since Week 12, has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Since Week 15, Coker has had a 14.6% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. He has been quiet the last two weeks after his monster Week 15 performance. He does have two red-zone targets in his last two games, though. Coker is a decent flex play who could pop off with a nice game this week against Atlanta’s giving secondary. Since Week 12, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Since Week 12, Legette has had a 19.3% target share with 1.17 YPRR and a 22.5% first-read share. He has seen at least eight targets in three of five games, but he hasn’t done much with the volume, as he hasn’t eclipsed 60 receiving yards once. In his last five games, he has two end-zone targets and three red-zone targets. Legette is in the same middling flex conversation as Jalen Coker this week. Since Week 12, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Over the last two games with Penix Jr. under center, Mooney has had a 16.1% target share, 2.05 YPRR (59.5 receiving yards per game), and a 19% first-read share. He hasn’t seen an end-zone target or red-zone target. Mooney is flex-viable, but he’ll need to break a big play to likely pay off this week, as Atlanta will likely lean on Drake London and the run game against Carolina. Mooney’s floor is quite low. Carolina is a nice matchup that could allow him to break that needed big play, though. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

With Micheal Penix Jr. under center, Pitts has had an 11.3% target share, 1.28 YPRR (25.5 receiving yards per game), and an 11.9% first-read share. Last week was Pitts’ first TE1 outing (TE10) since Week 10 and only his sixth of the season. Pitts has one red-zone target over the last two games. Pitts could close the 2024 season with another TE1 performance. We have seen the downside of playing him a ton this season, but he has a wonderful matchup and could capitalize even on limited volume. Carolina has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the most receiving touchdowns and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 18 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

N/A

CLE vs. BAL | CIN vs. PIT | CHI vs. GB | CAR vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | JAC vs. IND | NYG vs. PHI | BUF vs. NE | NO vs. TB | HOU vs. TEN | SF vs. ARI | KC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NYJ | SEA vs. LAR | LAC vs. LV | MIN vs. DET