The NFL’s Wild Card Round is upon us. While there are fewer games on the playoff slate than a standard regular season slate, the following article should look slightly familiar since it’s essentially the love child of my weekly DFS picks and predictions and the cheat sheet.
The goal is to provide readers from all DFS circles with helpful information. Whether you’re entering one lineup at your favorite DFS outlet or entering the maximum number of lineups in classic contests and showdown contests, the following will take a broad view of team tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. The suggested players were curated with gamers entering a modest number of contests in mind, albeit with some deeper contrarian suggestions as well.
The NFL’s Wild Card Round is upon us. While there are fewer games on the playoff slate than a standard regular season slate, the following article should look slightly familiar since it’s essentially the love child of my weekly DFS picks and predictions and the cheat sheet.
The goal is to provide readers from all DFS circles with helpful information. Whether you’re entering one lineup at your favorite DFS outlet or entering the maximum number of lineups in classic contests and showdown contests, the following will take a broad view of team tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. The suggested players were curated with gamers entering a modest number of contests in mind, albeit with some deeper contrarian suggestions as well.
The Chargers are road favorites after playing well to conclude the regular season, and the Texans limped into the postseason despite winning against the hapless Titans in Week 18. Justin Herbert is the triggerman for Los Angeles, and Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman shed their run-first reputation to lean on their rocket-armed quarterback down the stretch.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 10 through Week 18. Conversely, the Texans faced a 58% situation-neutral pass rate in that period. Herbert rewarded Harbaugh’s and Roman’s faith at the close of the regular season, passing for multiple touchdowns in the final four games and eclipsing 280 passing yards in the final three. Herbert has also chipped in as a runner.
Ladd McConkey was a revelation as a rookie. He’s Los Angeles’s top pass-catching weapon. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, he was first on the Chargers in route participation (81.7%), air yards share (28.5%), target share (22.9%) and first-read percentage (29.0%). McConkey parlayed his juicy underlying data into team highs in receptions per game (5.1) and receiving yards per game (71.8). He also had seven touchdown receptions. Will Dissly was a useful ancillary option, and Derius Davis is a contrarian GPP stacking choice with Herbert after emerging as a useful touchdown-scorer in the final few games. According to Pro Football Reference, Houston was tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed (21) to wide receivers in the regular season.
Diontae Johnson‘s short stint with the Ravens was as forgettable as possible. The Texans welcomed him into the fold because injuries destroyed their receiving corps. The veteran wideout was active for the first time with the Texans last week and had four targets (all first-read targets) on 16 routes.
Johnson could be busy if the Texans maintain their end-of-season play-calling tendencies and expand Johnson’s playing time. Since Week 10, Houston was tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%). On the other side, the Chargers faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10.
The Steelers have an implied total of 17.0 points and scored two touchdowns in two games against the Ravens in the regular season. Their offense is unserious. Lamar Jackson has had lackluster results, putting it mildly, against Mike Tomlin and the Steelers in his career, and Zay Flowers is trending toward an absence this week. Jackson’s obviously still an appealing pick in showdown contests, but Derrick Henry is the most appealing piece of the offense in classic contests.
The Ravens had a 52% situation-neutral rush rate in their final eight games of the regular season, and as commanding betting favorites, they’ll likely be in a positive game script as well. King Henry had an excellent regular season, ranking second in rushing yards per game (113.0) and tying for the most rushing touchdowns (16). He can still handle a hefty workload and steamroll a defense he ran over for 162 rushing yards in Week 16.
Rashod Bateman had a breakout campaign and could have a more robust role without Flowers. He has the big-play ability to make the most of a low volume of targets, too. Mark Andrews is Baltimore’s most exciting passing-game weapon, though. After a slow start through the first five weeks of the season, Andrews flipped the switch. Since Week 6, Andrews had 0.24 targets per route run, 45 receptions (3.8 receptions per game), 553 receiving yards (46.1 per game), 2.37 yards per route run and 11 touchdowns.
Isaiah Likely has also popped up for DFS-friendly showings this year. Furthermore, he could be tasked with more playing time and targets if Flowers is inactive.
Surely, a team with Josh Allen must be a pass-first team, and a defense with Patrick Surtain must be a run-funnel defense, right? Neither of those assumptions would be accurate. From Week 10 through Week 17 (the Bills rested most of their starters in Week 18, including Allen, after he took a snap to extend his consecutive-starts streak), Buffalo had a 51% situation-neutral pass rate. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense faced a 62% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 10 through Week 18.
Joe Brady has been willing to lean on Allen’s arm and legs when the situation called for it. Surtain is a terror, but Denver’s pass defense had chinks in the armor. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Broncos allowed the most passing yards per game (281.8) and 11 passing touchdowns. Their run defense allowed only 82.6 rushing yards per game at a stingy 3.71 yards per carry in their final eight games. So, it might be the ideal time for Brady to ask Allen to let it rip.
Allen has spread the ball around this year. Still, Khalil Shakir was his top pass-catching weapon. Shakir paced the Bills in first-read percentage (24.9%), receptions per game (5.1) and receiving yards per game (54.7). He also had a team-high 73.1% slot rate, which should allow him to avoid Surtain’s sticky coverage often.
Keon Coleman is an inviting, big-bodied target on scramble plays and in the red zone. The Bills have also used him in the slot more down the stretch. Coleman had only a 9.8% slot rate through his first 11 games and 18.9% in the final two games of the regular season. The rookie could post a bagel, but there’s a theoretical path to upside this week.
Ty Johnson could also have theoretical value this week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Johnson had 26 pass-blocking snaps in the regular season versus 11 for Ray Davis and 11 for James Cook. The Bills might prefer to ramp up his usage against Denver’s NFL-sack-leading defense. Johnson would also be a stylistic fit for a more pass-heavy approach this week.
Dalton Kincaid is Buffalo’s flimsiest suggestion for classic contests. Yet, he’s another option for Allen to avoid Surtain. Kincaid was also rather unlucky in the regular season. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, the second-year tight end had 8.0 fantasy points per game and 9.9 expected fantasy points per game. Kincaid could provide value if regression hits this week.
Marvin Mims and Jaleel McLaughlin have juice in Denver’s offense. Both second-year pros are part of rotations at their respective positions. Nevertheless, they each touch the ball at high rates when they’re on the field. Mims had a blistering 0.28 targets per route run in the regular season, which surged to 0.34 after Denver’s Week 14 bye. McLaughlin had double-digit touches in each of the club’s games after the bye, surpassing 75 scrimmage yards twice. They’re the most enticing bring-backs from a Bills stack, and both have middle-tier or low salaries.
Since Week 10, the Packers had the highest situation-neutral rush rate (56%), and the Eagles had the fifth-highest (50%). So, there’s a high probability the clock will be running most of the game, and the play volume could be low for one or both teams if the clock is continuously ticking. Jalen Hurts could also be rusty in his return from a concussion, assuming he clears the NFL’s concussion protocol. Hurts and Philadelphia’s passing-game options are appealing only in showdown contests.
Green Bay’s run defense stiffened up at the end of the year, but Saquon Barkley is a matchup-proof workhorse. Barkley thrived behind Philadelphia’s bulldozing offensive line, rushing for an NFL-high 2,005 yards (125.3 per game) and 13 touchdowns. He also has pass-catching chops, and the Packers faced an NFL-high 21.1% of targets to running backs from Week 10 through Week 18.
During that period, the Eagles faced the fifth-highest rate of targets (35.8%) to the slot. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are the most likely of Green Bay’s top wideouts to align there. Reed had a team-high 76.2% slot rate this year, and Wicks’s 32.5% was much higher than Romeo Doubs‘s 13.0%. Christian Watson also had a 28.6% slot rate and is out with a torn ACL. Reed and Wicks should benefit from Watson’s absence with increased target volume.
This game is a shootout waiting to happen. Fortunately, it’s also rather straightforward to stack in the classic contests. The Commanders had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate in their final eight games, and the Buccaneers faced an NFL-high 65% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 10 through Week 18. Washington’s offense’s success will rely on Jayden Daniels as a passer and scrambler. He’ll probably direct most of his targets to Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. They were first and second among Washington’s pass-catchers in expected fantasy points per game at 13.6 and 9.9, respectively. Additionally, the Bucs yielded the sixth-most DraftKings and ninth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts and the seventh-most to tight ends in the regular season.
Tampa Bay could rely on Baker Mayfield‘s arm, Bucky Irving‘s legs or a relatively balanced mix of both. Since Week 10, they’ve had a 51% situation-neutral pass rate. Still, even in a lower-volume passing attack, Mayfield was dialed in. He had multiple passing touchdowns in his final five games, surpassing 285 passing yards four times. Mayfield also used his legs to reach at least 25 rushing yards in three of his final four games.
Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are Mayfield’s top passing-game weapons. The former had 5.3 receptions per game, 71.7 receiving yards per game and 11 receiving touchdowns. Evans’s high touchdown output wasn’t flukey, either. He had a massive 17 end zone targets in 14 games this year.
McMillan didn’t hit the ground running. Instead, the rookie wide receiver emerged late. McMillan had a five-game touchdown streak to end the year, securing two, one, one, two and one touchdowns with 59, 75, 57, 60 and 80 scrimmage yards. McMillan also had five receptions in each of his final four games.
While Mayfield, Evans and McMillan are excellent DFS picks, Irving is the most exciting one. Among 70 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts in the regular season, Irving was sixth in yards per carry (5.42), tied for seventh in explosive run percentage (6.8%) and third in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.26). In Irving’s last eight games of the regular season, he had 84, 190, 92, 113, 18, 185, 152 and 87 scrimmage yards with five touchdowns. Gamers also shouldn’t dismiss stacking Irving with Mayfield since the rookie running back had multiple receptions in 14 games.
The Rams and Vikings have top-heavy offenses. However, they’re at different ends of the spectrum for play-calling tendencies. From Week 10 through Week 17, Los Angeles had a 54% situation-neutral rush rate, and from Week 10 through Week 18, Minnesota had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate.
Minnesota’s offensive tendencies aligned with how teams chose to attack Los Angeles. The Rams faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate in their final eight games. The same wasn’t true on the flip side. Minnesota’s opponents had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate against the Vikings from Week 10 through Week 18.
Puka Nacua doesn’t need Sean McVay to open up the passing attack to have a huge game. He’s an alpha No. 1 wideout, evidenced by his 7.2 receptions per game, 90.0 receiving yards per game, 0.38 targets per route run, 34.8% first-read percentage, three receiving touchdowns and 17.7 expected fantasy points per game. The second-year wideout also has a mouthwatering matchup. The Vikings allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season.
Kyren Williams‘s matchup isn’t as favorable. However, Minnesota’s run defense wasn’t impenetrable at the end of the year. In their final nine games, they ceded 103.7 rushing yards per game, 4.22 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns. McVay should load up Williams with touches after the bell-cow running back received a breather when the club rested starters in Week 18.
Justin Jefferson is Minnesota’s No. 1 passing-game weapon and one of the best wide receivers in the league. Jefferson had 6.1 receptions per game, 90.2 receiving yards per game and 10 receiving touchdowns in 17 games in the regular season. He also had 18.5 expected fantasy points per game.
Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson also reached double-digit expected fantasy points per game, with 12.6 and 10.0, respectively. Addison is a vertical weapon, but he was also crafty enough to garner 12 end zone targets in 15 games. Hockenson wasn’t a world-beater in his return from knee surgery. However, he has a drool-inducing matchup. The Rams allowed the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Aaron Jones also has a tasty matchup. In Los Angeles’s last nine games in the regular season, they coughed up 125.4 rushing yards per game, 4.91 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns. Jones is also a game-script-proof running back since he’s a valuable receiver, securing 3.0 receptions per game for 24.0 receiving yards per game. Jones also had seven touchdowns and 90.9 scrimmage yards per game.
Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
Do Not Sell
Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question?
