The NFL’s Wild Card Round is upon us. While there are fewer games on the playoff slate than a standard regular season slate, the following article should look slightly familiar since it’s essentially the love child of my weekly DFS picks and predictions and the cheat sheet.
The goal is to provide readers from all DFS circles with helpful information. Whether you’re entering one lineup at your favorite DFS outlet or entering the maximum number of lineups in classic contests and showdown contests, the following will take a broad view of team tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. The suggested players were curated with gamers entering a modest number of contests in mind, albeit with some deeper contrarian suggestions as well.
Here are of our NFL DFS Wild Card Round Picks & Predictions. Below we dive into our top NFL DFS Wild Card Round picks and lineup advice for Bills vs. Broncos.
NFL Wild Card Round DFS Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Broncos
Spread/Total: BUF -8.5/47.0 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Ty Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Marvin Mims, Jaleel McLaughlin
- Top shelf showdown captain: Josh Allen
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: James Cook, Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims
- Flex showdown only: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, Jaleel McLaughlin, Nate Adkins
Surely, a team with Josh Allen must be a pass-first team, and a defense with Patrick Surtain must be a run-funnel defense, right? Neither of those assumptions would be accurate. From Week 10 through Week 17 (the Bills rested most of their starters in Week 18, including Allen, after he took a snap to extend his consecutive-starts streak), Buffalo had a 51% situation-neutral pass rate. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense faced a 62% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 10 through Week 18.
Joe Brady has been willing to lean on Allen’s arm and legs when the situation called for it. Surtain is a terror, but Denver’s pass defense had chinks in the armor. From Week 10 through Week 18, the Broncos allowed the most passing yards per game (281.8) and 11 passing touchdowns. Their run defense allowed only 82.6 rushing yards per game at a stingy 3.71 yards per carry in their final eight games. So, it might be the ideal time for Brady to ask Allen to let it rip.
Allen has spread the ball around this year. Still, Khalil Shakir was his top pass-catching weapon. Shakir paced the Bills in first-read percentage (24.9%), receptions per game (5.1) and receiving yards per game (54.7). He also had a team-high 73.1% slot rate, which should allow him to avoid Surtain’s sticky coverage often.
Keon Coleman is an inviting, big-bodied target on scramble plays and in the red zone. The Bills have also used him in the slot more down the stretch. Coleman had only a 9.8% slot rate through his first 11 games and 18.9% in the final two games of the regular season. The rookie could post a bagel, but there’s a theoretical path to upside this week.
Ty Johnson could also have theoretical value this week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Johnson had 26 pass-blocking snaps in the regular season versus 11 for Ray Davis and 11 for James Cook. The Bills might prefer to ramp up his usage against Denver’s NFL-sack-leading defense. Johnson would also be a stylistic fit for a more pass-heavy approach this week.
Dalton Kincaid is Buffalo’s flimsiest suggestion for classic contests. Yet, he’s another option for Allen to avoid Surtain. Kincaid was also rather unlucky in the regular season. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, the second-year tight end had 8.0 fantasy points per game and 9.9 expected fantasy points per game. Kincaid could provide value if regression hits this week.
Marvin Mims and Jaleel McLaughlin have juice in Denver’s offense. Both second-year pros are part of rotations at their respective positions. Nevertheless, they each touch the ball at high rates when they’re on the field. Mims had a blistering 0.28 targets per route run in the regular season, which surged to 0.34 after Denver’s Week 14 bye. McLaughlin had double-digit touches in each of the club’s games after the bye, surpassing 75 scrimmage yards twice. They’re the most enticing bring-backs from a Bills stack, and both have middle-tier or low salaries.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.