Week 18 is unique in the NFL season. Teams have varying degrees of motivation, and many are resting starters for the playoffs. Non-contenders might also use some veteran starters less on Sunday to take an extended look at youngsters and evaluate their future value. Fortunately, the motivations for the teams in the first suggested game stack are clear. The second suggested game stack could be a source of salary relief, but it’s a more volatile choice.
The Lions versus the Vikings won’t be a suggested game stack below because they’re not part of the main slate at DraftKings. However, the slugfest for the NFC North title is an elite game stack at FanDuel. The core studs and values/punts are also from contests on the main slate for both DFS providers. Finally, a few player props were the most appealing selections from the lobby at Underdog.
Week 18 is unique in the NFL season. Teams have varying degrees of motivation, and many are resting starters for the playoffs. Non-contenders might also use some veteran starters less on Sunday to take an extended look at youngsters and evaluate their future value. Fortunately, the motivations for the teams in the first suggested game stack are clear. The second suggested game stack could be a source of salary relief, but it’s a more volatile choice.
The Lions versus the Vikings won’t be a suggested game stack below because they’re not part of the main slate at DraftKings. However, the slugfest for the NFC North title is an elite game stack at FanDuel. The core studs and values/punts are also from contests on the main slate for both DFS providers. Finally, a few player props were the most appealing selections from the lobby at Underdog.
NFL Week 18 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Falcons vs. Panthers
Spread/Total: ATL -8.0/48.0 Points
The top player on the table is the top core stud, so I'll get to him later in the article. While the not-so-mystery running back has a mouthwatering matchup, Atlanta's passing attack also has a Charmin soft matchup.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have the lowest pressure rate (16.1%) this year, which is ideal for Michael Penix's outlook. If he's unpressured, he can sling it deep to the trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts. Furthermore, if touchdown variance is favorable for Atlanta's passing attack, Penix and any of his pass-catching weapons can smash in DFS.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Penix's two starts, London has had 40.3% air yards share, 33.9% target share, 0.38 targets per route run, 38.1% first-read percentage, three end zone targets, 12 receptions (6.0 per game), 165 receiving yards (82.5 per game) and 21.0 expected fantasy points per game.
Mooney was clearly the No. 2 passing-game option, earning a 24.2% air yards share, 16.1% target share, 0.17 targets per route run, 19.0% first-read percentage, seven receptions (3.5 per game), 119 receiving yards (59.5 per game) and 10.7 expected fantasy points per game. Pitts is a matchup-drive suggestion after rebounding from his drop, which directly turned into an interception in Week 16. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and tied for the most FanDuel points per game allowed to tight ends this year.
Bryce Young had a forgettable real-life performance last week but wasn't a total dud in DFS. Young's sledding won't be as challenging this week. While the Buccaneers have the eighth-highest pressure rate (25.0%) this year, the Falcons have the eighth-lowest (20.7%) mark. In the previous four weeks, Atlanta has yielded 248.0 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns. Young is an intriguing value option at quarterback.
Adam Thielen is his top pass-catching weapon. In his previous five games, he's had a 34.2% air yards share, 24.7% target share, 33.7% first-read percentage, 32 receptions (6.4 per game), 405 receiving yards (81.0 per game), four touchdowns and 14.4 expected fantasy points per game.
The Panthers had their full complement of wide receivers in Week 17 and wisely pushed David Moore (31.4% route participation rate) to the side in favor of Jalen Coker (80.0% route participation rate) and Xavier Legette (71.4% route participation rate). They're reasonable punts against Atlanta's secondary. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season.
Game: Rams vs. Seahawks
Spread/Total: SEA -6.5/38.5 Points
Sean McVay has rested his starters in the final week of the regular season when they've locked up a playoff spot, and he's sticking to his guns again this year. As a result, Blake Corum should lead Los Angeles's backfield, albeit not necessarily in the complete Kyren Williams role. Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson are the team's top three receivers, and resting all three would open the door for Tutu Atwell and a rookie who will be featured in the values/punts to strut their stuff. This year, Atwell has 0.25 targets per route run and 2.43 yards per route run. It's dangerous to extrapolate those marks over a full-time role. Nevertheless, the speedster has flashed his potential when awarded playing time.
The Seahawks have been eliminated from playoff contention. Still, they can finish with 10 wins in Mike Macdonald's first year as a head coach, and the offense should also benefit from the Rams resting some starters. Geno Smith might not face significant pressure if players such as Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, Byron Young and Jared Verse don't play or have their playing time drastically reduced to stay healthy and refresh before the playoffs. Smith is seventh in passing yards per game (256.1), and the passing attack is funneled through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (31.4% air yards share and 22.8% target share this season) and DK Metcalf (41.5% air yards share and 20.5% target share this year). Thus, the Smith stacking options are straightforward.
Of course, the Seahawks are favorites, and Kenneth Walker is on the Injured Reserve (IR). Therefore, Zach Charbonnet is an intriguing choice against a defense resting starters, too. The second-year pro has had 69, 76, 107 and 193 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns in the four contests when he had over 15 touches this season. Charbonnet had 18 touches for the Seahawks last week and should have a hefty workload again this week.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson is the RB1 at DraftKings and FanDuel in the lineup optimizer. In Penix's two starts, Robinson has had 201 scrimmage yards (184 rushing), five receptions and four rushing touchdowns. He's had over 100 scrimmage yards in nine of his past 11 games, and Robinson had two touchdowns with 98 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in one of the outlier contests last week. The second-year running back trounced the Panthers for 95 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions and 10 receiving yards earlier this season. Since Week 14, the Panthers have yielded 207.0 rushing yards per game, 5.91 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns. Robinson should eviscerate Carolina's inept run defense.
- Bucky Irving is projected as the RB2 at DraftKings and the RB3 at FanDuel this week. The Buccaneers are 13.5-point favorites in a game they must win to assure themselves the NFC South title, and Irving has emerged as their lead running back. In his previous seven games, the hyper-efficient rookie has had 190, 92, 113, 18, 185, 152 and 87 scrimmage yards, scoring touchdowns in four of those contests. Irving left the 18-yard dud early after entering the contest with a questionable designation and has rebounded spectacularly. Irving should eat against a run defense yielding 148.3 rushing yards per game and four touchdowns in their last four games.
- Tampa Bay's implied total of 28.5 points is the highest on the main slate at DraftKings and the second highest on FanDuel's main slate. Baker Mayfield was in a similar position last week and nuked the Panthers, spinning it for 359 passing yards and five touchdowns. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and eclipsed 300 passing yards in back-to-back contests. Mayfield is understandably projected as the QB1 at both DFS providers.
Value Plays/Punts
- Ideally, Jordan Whittington will progress to full practice participation by the end of the week. Regardless, he's a viable punt as long as he's active. The rookie was a preseason darling. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Whittington had 0.36 targets per route run, 11 receptions, 126 receiving yards and 2.68 yards per route run on 47 routes in the preseason. He's also earned 0.24 targets per route run and tallied 2.07 yards per route run in the regular season.
- Ray Davis is a dicier pick if the Bills use one of their two practice-squad elevations on Frank Gore Jr. Yet if they don't, Davis could be a workhorse in Week 18. Josh Allen will start the game to continue his consecutive starts streak, but he won't be in the game for long, and the Bills will presumably rest other starters as well. When James Cook was inactive in Week 6, Davis had 20 rush attempts, 97 rushing yards, three receptions and 55 receiving yards against the Jets. The do-it-all rookie running back has demonstrated big-play ability in a change-of-pace role behind Cook and Ty Johnson this season. Davis also has a favorable matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (160.7), 4.97 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns since Week 14.
- The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC and will rest some starters, including Saquon Barkley. Philadelphia's offense is top-heavy, and the G-Men's defense can deliver value at their punt price against the Eagles' reserves.
Week 18 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Mike Evans: 91.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
I'll take a trip down the infamous narrative street. Mike Evans is only 85 receiving yards shy of reaching 1,000 for the 11th consecutive season to begin his career. He no longer runs the risk of getting baited into a fight with Marshon Lattimore this week since the Saints traded his longtime nemesis to the Commanders. Evans is also in excellent form. In his previous four games, Evans has had a 36.2% air yards share, 24.4% target share, 0.28 targets per route run, 26 receptions (6.5 per game), 394 receiving yards (98.5 per game) and 3.46 yards per route run. He's also exceeded 91.5 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and his line at Underdog is a steal compared to 95.5 at Sleeper.
Bijan Robinson: 94.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In the previous five games, Robinson has had 90, 94, 125, 92 and 102 rushing yards, and none of the defenses he faced were the NFL's worst against the run. The Panthers own that dubious distinction. Carolina has allowed an NFL-high 143.6 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. We project him to have 100.9 rushing yards this week, putting him over his line at Underdog and Sleeper's line of 99.5 rushing yards. Still, I'd rather avoid the line at Sleeper in favor of the softer line at Underdog.
Marvin Mims: 29.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Marvin Mims has been cooking with gas. He's had 103, 62, 20, 105, 44 and 49 receiving yards in his last six games. In that span, Mims had 0.33 targets per route run, 23 receptions (3.8 per game), 383 receiving yards (63.8 per game) and 4.91 yards per route run.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
