Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is valuable for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could assume that will regress in his favor in future games.

Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary weekly.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions.

This will be our last analysis of the 2024 season from an air yards perspective.

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2024 Season Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool that is freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 65 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Calvin Ridley‘s 1,780 air yards all the way down to Tutu Atwell‘s 665. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 15. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From 2024 Season Air Yards Data

Draft Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton in 2025

Calvin Ridley and Courtland finished the 2024 fantasy season first and second in air yards. They were also both first and second in air yards share, and both had a target share of over 25%. However, Ridley and Sutton finished 22nd and 17th in receiving yards, respectively, which wasted a large percentage of their potential production. Ridley was a product of outstandingly bad quarterback play. Will Levis and Mason Rudolph combined to get Ridley 115 targets, but his catchable target rate (tracked by Player Profiler) was 98th among all wide receivers at 56.9%. That means 43% of the balls thrown Ridley's way had almost a zero percent chance of being caught. A new quarterback in 2025 would definitely help his fantasy production.

With Courtland Sutton, he had Bo Nix, who played better than anyone, and everyone predicted he would but still should keep maturing in the NFL. Sutton's catchable target rate was 96th among wide receivers, only slightly better than Ridley. But this is why air yards exist. To identify players with massive potential under the hood and look at who could positively regress heading into next season. Both of these guys should be on fantasy radars, especially if their 2025 ADP slips, due to some perception that they might not have been as productive as other top wide receivers.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Could be a Sneaky Pick Next Year

With the success Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey had this season, Marvin Harrison was often second-guessed about whether or not he should have been taken as high in the draft as he was by the Arizona Cardinals. Looking deeper into his numbers in 2024, the opportunity seems to be just fine. It might be some improvement on Kyler Murray's part and some chemistry issues with his quarterback that can help Harrison in 2025.

Harrison finished the season with 1,496 air yards, and a 43.8% air yards share. Both of those numbers were top-five in the league. He saw 110 targets (a top-20 number) despite sharing the field with target monster Trey McBride. Harrison's 57 receptions and 822 receiving yards were both outside the top 20 among wide receivers, once again, because of accuracy issues from the quarterback. His catchable pass rate was just 67%, and he ranked 67th among all wide receivers in 2025. Another area where there is hopefully improvement for Harrison in 2025 is red zone targets. After the Trey McBride non-touchdown became such a thing, the Cardinals were forcing targets to McBride in the end zone. That meant Harrison only had 10 red zone looks all year. For a player of Harrison's ability, that number has to improve in 2025, and I expect the Cardinals to remedy that.

Rome Odunze Looks Better Than His Numbers

Another rookie wide receiver who did not live up to expectations (especially compared to teammates) was Rome Odunze. Odunze finished 2024 with just 52 catches for 716 yards. Among players in the top 20 of air yards, that receiving yard total was far and away the lowest number (Alec Pierce, who only gets bombs downfield, was at 767). Because D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are on his team, Odunze "only" saw 99 targets despite playing in all 16 games to this point.

However, Odunze was 11th in air yards (he had more than Brian Thomas Jr. and Garrett Wilson) and 14th in air yards share. That number was better than either of his teammates. It did not result in bigger box score numbers simply because Caleb Williams was under pressure all the time, and Odunze had a much higher average depth of target than Allen and Moore (Odunze's was over 14 yards). With some anticipated improvement from both Caleb Williams and the Bears' offensive line, Rome Odunze is a player who will be a nice value at his ADP in 2025.

Cooper Kupp Looks Cooked

Just three short years ago, Cooper Kupp led the NFL in receiving yards, and much of that was due to his yards after the catch ability. He had more than 850 yards after the catch that season and then ranked 13th in YAC in 2022 despite playing only nine games. This season, that skill has basically disappeared. In 2024, Kupp ranked 36th among wide receivers in yards after the catch, with just 260 on the season. To put that in perspective, Olamide Zaccheaus and DeMario Douglas had more.

Cooper Kupp had exactly 100 targets in 12 games this year, and his average depth of target was just 7.6 yards, tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for second-lowest on this list. High targets and low aDOT are usually a recipe for many yards after the catch (St. Brown had 380 after the catch this season), but that didn't happen for Kupp in 2024. He finished with just 710 receiving yards on 758 air yards. In his fantasy superstar days, Kupp routinely compiled hundreds more receiving yards than air yards.

With Puka Nacua emerging as a 10-target per-game player and Kupp turning 32 next year, his ADP in 2025 is likely to plummet.