Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week and a wonderful season so far as we get into the dog days of the season. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. There are more questionable tags tonight than I’ve seen almost all season so you’ll have to be ready for some changes throughout the night. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a seven-game slate tonight across both sites which is the perfect amount in my opinion. In the end, it’s about making the right choices, and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,000
It’s rare I find myself loving Kevin Durant on NBA DFS slates but here we are. He’s healthy and playing like it, averaging 46 DK points in his last five games with over 36 minutes a night. Here, Phoenix returns home after a three-game road trip to take on the Atlanta Hawks in a game with a total of 236 where Durant is set up to smash. Atlanta is a big pace-up spot as the second-fastest team in the league with a bottom 10 defense that has allowed the fourth most points to opposing power forwards this year. Durant gets center eligibility on DK and small forward status on FanDuel but you get my point. His ceiling is 60-plus points and at a $9k price tag, that is quite the bargain. He also offers a steady floor, not going below 38 DK points in 12 consecutive games. I project him right around 50 fantasy points tonight where he will be a great option in GPP or cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $8,100
He’s a clear FanDuel option tonight but Herro still projects well against the worst defense in the league. The Jazz have allowed the third-highest three-point attempts against them so I see a high ceiling for Herro who can sling it from deep with nearly four makes from deep a night. Given the state of the Miami Heat, I expect Herro’s 27 percent usage rate to see a little uptick and the Jazz are a decent pace-up spot for the Heat. All the stars are aligning for the Kentucky product to produce a ceiling game. He’s reached 70 DK points once this season and while I would be shocked by that again, I see him reaching 45 tonight as a median outcome.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,200
No team has allowed more points to opposing centers than the Utah Jazz. The last time out against Utah wasn’t Bam’s best performance so there’s a good chance he’s out for vengeance. Even if he’s not, this is still an ideal matchup. With a pace-up spot, Adebayo should improve on his 40 DK points a game. I know I’m doubling up on Miami Heat players but they are in a prime matchup with a lot of the usage expected to go through these two players. The two both have the capacity for a ceiling output and I expect to find both in many of my lineups tonight.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $7,900
After dipping below a $5k price tag this season, I would never have expected Amen Thompson to be a cash game staple for me at $7k-plus but crazier things have happened. Memphis is the fastest-paced team in the league with a solid defense but three of their projected five starters are currently questionable – their three most important players in that. Thompson has been on a bender of late with two straight 49-plus DK efforts. He’s averaged 37 minutes a night over his last five games and he’s gone over 35 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Even continuing with that floor would be decent but considering the high possession rate of tonight against what should be a limited Memphis team. I project him around 15 percent ownership tonight but given his dual eligibility, he makes for a great cash option.
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: $8,300
Without thinking much about this one I’m going to take a player from the most efficient offense against the fourth least efficient defense with two teams that rank in the top seven in pace of play. Mobley has covered 30 DK points in seven of his last eight games and tonight is a prime matchup for a Toronto frontcourt that has struggled against opposing big men this season. With a total of around 235 where Mobley will see the court 31 minutes with a near 25 percent usage rate, he has quite the high floor while capable of a 60-plus point capacity.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $6,600
- FanDuel: $7,100
There are a handful of value centers tonight so really pick your poison and go with it. Kessler is averaging 35 DK points in his last six games which would already cover 5X value. Kessler is better at home in the scoring department and usually plays more minutes too. Recently, he’s been seeing a small uptick in usage and projects around 31 minutes tonight. He’s not my most confident play but he is expected to be five percent owned and given his higher price on FanDuel shows that he is projected higher on other sights so his leverage is going to be high for large field GPPs.
- DraftKings: $10,200
- FanDuel: $10,300
The Detroit guard has seen his price steadily grow as the season has progressed and after a quick dip, it’s back over $10k again. He’s seen a small dip in play with only 45 DK points a game averaged over the last five outings but tonight could be a blow-up spot for him. Three of the Warriors starters are questionable for tonight’s game and Golden State offers a pace-up spot for Detroit where Cade’s splits are favorable at home. The Oklahoma State product has found many of my GPP lineups as he has reached 70 DK points multiple times already with a number of 60-point outings in addition. I’d gladly run it back again tonight with his sub-10 percent projected ownership in the early goings.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,300
- FanDuel: $4,200
DraftKings dropped the ball with pricing here but Vit Krejci still offers great value on both sites. In his last two starts, he’s averaged 25 minutes a night with 11 points, three boards, and an assist in the small sample size. Averaging 24 DK points in his last four games gives that 7X opportunity is rare to come by. Right now as the slate stands, Krejci might be the highest-owned player with a clear punt option and returned value projected. It’s not the friendliest of matchups but 26 minutes of play with around a 15 percent usage rate is a deal and a half for his price tag.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (C/PF – GSW)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $6,100
For another mismanaged price tag on DraftKings, we have Trayce Jackson-Davis. He’s averaged nearly 30 fantasy points a night over the last six games and I expect more of the same tonight. Not only is he slated to start and play 30 or so minutes but Golden State is one of the teams with a plethora of questionable tags surrounding their starting lineup. Jackson-Davis’ usage has jumped up just shy of 20 percent in the last two weeks and he’s averaging 11 points with eight boards in that time frame. While FD has adjusted making him more of a cash option than pure value, he should see a 6X value return on DraftKings for the Indiana product tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $6,600
Orlando has gone through quite a variety of lineups with the injuries they have faced. Paolo Banchero may be making his return from a long injury which may diminish Anthony’s projection but the Orlando guard is still primed for 33 minutes with a 27 usage rate while he’s on the court. It’s one of the lowest NBA totals I’ve seen all season so there is a bit of risk with a lower possession rate and top defenses but he still is a knockout option on DraftKings.
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