Happy New Year and welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week and a wonderful season so far as we celebrate the holiday season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a six-game slate, so there isn’t as much room for creativity. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $11,200
After averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points a game in his last five matchups, it makes sense why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has continued to see a price increase of late. It may not be the best game on the slate with only a 219 total, but none of the other games exactly jump off the page.
Gilgeous-Alexander gets a bump at home and can go off against anyone. He offers a ceiling of over 70 fantasy points and has seen a recent bump in usage rate, which is promising for continued high fantasy scoring.
I don’t have much to say and with a general lack of stars on a smaller slate, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to garner a lot of rostership. He is still worth the rostership, though, with his ceiling. If he goes off for a 90th percentile effort he’s someone you will need in your lineups.
- DraftKings: $10,700
- FanDuel: $11,500
It’s important to monitor Anthony Davis’ injury status because he’s endlessly questionable. Assuming he’s good to go, Davis makes for arguably the best center play on the slate. There are some great value and spend-down options on today’s slate but no one has the ceiling Davis does.
Davis is coming off a 63-fantasy point outing and tallied 64 last time out against Portland. The Trailblazers allow the sixth most fantasy points to opposing centers. Projecting Davis for around 57 DraftKings points might lead the slate today.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $10,400
- FanDuel: $10,300
Jayson Tatum is not exactly ‘ol reliable out here but he is consistent in this top-three-ranked Boston offense at Minnesota tonight. It helps that Brown is questionable, which will only help Tatum’s projection, but Boston has still been dealing with injuries on and off their starting lineup of late, which will only increase Tatum’s 30% usage rate.
The former Duke product has only gone below 39 DraftKings points once this entire season. Even going below 45 has been quite rare. He’s scored at least 49 points in four of his last five games. While Minnesota’s pace and defense might limit his ceiling a bit, he still makes for a consistent cash option, especially on FanDuel.
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $7,300
For DraftKings cash options, Deandre Ayton is an easy choice. Especially if big names such as Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are out, a lot of rostership should be funneled to Ayton. The Portland center has averaged 38 DraftKings points over his last five matchups and the Lakers allow the seventh-most points to opposing centers.
Ayton’s usage rate has stayed steady at around 20% against a bottom-10 defense, I’m happy to slot Ayton into cash lineups without breaking the bank to save up for the rest of your lineup.
- DraftKings: $5,700
- FanDuel: $6,300
Starting in place of Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija slots in as a great cash option when filling out lineups. He’s projected for over 31 minutes with 15 points and seven boards. That’s honestly closer to a floor projection considering how he’s played in his last two starts.
Early rostership is coming in around 28%, so try to stick to the Portland forward in cash lineups. However, projected for 30+ DraftKings points, Avdija will set your lineups up well for double-ups and cash games.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $10,500
With the narrative around Joel Embiid and the injuries he has continuously faced, I imagine he will see little to no rostership tonight. But at his price tag — at least on DraftKings — he still sets up for a solid leverage option compared to the other center options on the slate getting most of the rostership tonight.
The Warriors are a big pace-up spot for Embiid and the 76ers, and it’s not exactly like this is a defense to be scared of. I’d stick to Embiid in the large-field GPPs, assuming he’s a full-go. Make sure you monitor his health status. He is one of my favorite contrarian plays on the slate.
Bennedict Mathurin (SF, SG – IND)
- DraftKings: $6,100
- FanDuel: $6,200
It appears very little rostership is going to any Pacers today against Miami, including Bennedict Mathurin. With guard-forward dual status, he makes for a flexible spend-down option expected for around 8-9% rostership tonight.
Mathurin has shown 40+ fantasy point ceilings. With Jimmy Butler and Duncan Robinson both questionable, there’s a chance the matchup opens up even more. He’s been consistently on the court for 34 minutes with a 21% usage rate. Even in a pace-down spot, those numbers at his price and rostership make for a fine GPP play.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Trayce Jackson-Davis (C, PF – GSW)
- DraftKings: $4,700
- FanDuel: $5,900
FanDuel has caught on to the fact that Trayce Jackson-Davis is starting. On DraftKings, though, the Warriors center might offer the best value on the entire slate. Jackson-Davis projects for around 30 fantasy points tonight against the 76ers.
Joel Embiid coming off of rest may impact Jackson-Davis’ projections. Still, he lines up to be an excellent play on DraftKings. Over the last week, he’s been averaging a double-double with a usage rate of over 20%. It’s a small sample size but still expresses the value offered with a sub-$5,000 price tag.
With the shorter slate he will be highly rostered but with consecutive 40+ DraftKings point efforts it makes sense to put the Indiana product in your GPP and cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $4,800
My love of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made me a bit hesitant to list Cason Wallace here, but for a sub-$4,000 price tag on DraftKings for a player capable of 25+ fantasy points any given night, I had to recommend him. With such a low usage rate, I’d prefer Wallace more as a GPP option but he still makes for an excellent cash game punt option for someone who sees the court for more than 30 minutes a night.
Last time out against Minnesota, Wallace had a solid outing and the Clippers are a bit friendlier of a fantasy matchup with a home-court bump to the projections. The other option here is Luguentz Dort, who continually starts, but is still priced under $5,000 on both sites.
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