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NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (1/27)

NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (1/27)

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season as we brace through the cold. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a 10-game slate tonight or 12-game, depending on which site you use. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)

  • DraftKings: $12,000
  • FanDuel: $12,800

Whenever Nikola Jokic is on the slate, he will make the list of core players. I mean, four days ago, the guy put up 99 DK points! That’s obviously not a consistent outcome, but the ceiling is higher than anyone on the slate, and he’s covered 60 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Tonight, I fully expect him to cover that line and he’s projected higher. If her covers 70, he’s basically a must for your lineups. Chicago is a great matchup, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing centers. It’s a massive pace-up spot for the Nuggets, and Jokic is due for a bounce-back after a dud last time out. With a big slate, you should be able to find the value to slot Jokic in your lineups comfortably, so don’t be afraid to get him in there as he will be quite the popular play tonight.

Kyrie Irving (PG/SG – DAL)

  • DraftKings: $8,900
  • FanDuel: $8,600

If Chicago isn’t the best opponent to go against for DFS, the Washington Wizards might take the cake. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards (third most to point guards). The Wizards have the fourth-fastest pace of play and rank at the bottom of the barrel in defensive efficiency. What’s better than that? Dallas is favored by 12 here and Kyrie’s usage and minutes have both received boosts with the current lineup construction for Dallas. He should see the floor for around 38 minutes with nearly a 30 percent usage rate. He’s a priority for today with a price that doesn’t break the bank with a sub-$9k price tag and a ceiling over 60 points.

Scottie Barnes (PG/SF/PF – TOR)

  • DraftKings: $9,600
  • FanDuel: $9,600

The dual status that Barnes has on DraftKings always makes him a tempting play. Tonight against New Orleans is not different. Barnes has averaged 47 DK points a night in the last four games, and his price has only continued to rise with his consistent performances. He’s scored 50-plus DK points in two of his last three games and has a clear opportunity to do it again tonight. The Pelicans allow the fourth most fantasy points a game to opposing small forwards. Whatever position you consider Barnes, he’s still lined up well. New Orleans ranks third to last in defensive efficiency and has similar pacing to Toronto. The 35-plus expected minutes with a 25 percent usage rate against such a bad defense at home is the TLDR on how Barnes ends up being a core option for tonight.

CTAs

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Daniel Gafford (C – DAL)

  • DraftKings: $6,700
  • FanDuel: $7,500

Generally speaking, Dallas, Denver, and New York will be high-owned teams across the slate. They’re in pace-up spots, facing bad defenses, or both. Based on what he’s facing, Daniel Gafford might be the best value option on the entire slate. The Wizards allow the most fantasy points to opposing centers. It’s an incredible pace-up spot, and Gafford has been seeing the floor a lot more recently, averaging over 30 minutes a night. Against this Washington team, if you’re playing starting minutes at this price, that’s an easy click for me to get you in my lineup. Gafford has averaged 41 fantasy points a night in his last five games. That’s skewed a bit from a massive performance early last week but he still has covered that number in three of his last four

Russell Westbrook (PG – DEN)

  • DraftKings: $6,200
  • FanDuel: $6,700

He projects as one of the highest-owned players on the slate tonight but Westbrook is in line for a big game. As a quick reminder, the Bulls are the third fastest-paced team with a bottom-seven defense. They allow the most fantasy point to opposing point guards and the game total sits at 248 and continues to rise. The question is who isn’t going to get rostered in this game? Early projections show Westbrook has around 27 percent ownership, and I can get behind that. The Nuggets guard has consistently produced, without going below 20 DK points once since December 13th and getting 28-plus in three straight games. Tonight I project him closer to 35 fantasy points with a safe floor.

PJ Washington (PF/C – DAL)

  • DraftKings: $6,900
  • FanDuel: $6,800

I don’t wanna repeat myself too much here after just covering Daniel Gafford but between him and Washington I think you might have two of the highest-owned players on the slate. Washington doesn’t just own a safe floor, but the man also posted 60 DK points against Oklahoma City last week. Knowing he can do that against arguably the best team in the league makes me feel like he’s potentially unstoppable against the Wizards. My main point here is don’t be concerned by having a high percentage of Dallas and Denver members in your cash lineups. It may limit pure ceiling for GPP play but that’s not important here.

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NBA DFS GPP Targets

Josh Giddey (PG/SG – CHI)

  • DraftKings: $7,100
  • FanDuel: $7,300

For the bring-back option in all of your Denver lineups, I present Josh Giddey. The Chicago point guard is in a game with a whopping 246 total but isn’t priced too high where I’m tempted to fade him like Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. With the number of games tonight, ownership won’t be on Giddey and with everyone expected to flock to Denver, I don’t expect ownership to be high on Chicago much at all. Still, Denver allows the sixth most fantasy points to opposing point guards and there will be a lot to go around for everyone tonight with both teams ranked in the top five in pace of play. The Nuggets defense has been below average this season and don’t be afraid to get some more Bulls in a game where everyone can reach some high ceilings.

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)

  • DraftKings: $9,800
  • FanDuel: $10,200

There’s a lot of competition tonight for centers to roster in your lineup but there’s only so much room. Besides the value options, Jokic, Anthony Davis, and Domantas Sabonis are just a few that I expect to pull ownership away from Towns as spend-up center options for the night. That makes him great for your GPP’s. His recent play has been decent but he’s gone over 58 DK points in six of his last 10 games with a 72-point outing thrown in. Memphis is the fastest-paced team in the league which is why this total is at 241. Not quite as high as Denver-Chicago but Vegas still expects production somewhere and might as well pick the guy with a 27 percent usage rate who should see the court for 35 minutes of play. Playing at home helps, too, and the Grizzlies defense is solid but the ceiling potential is still there.

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NBA DFS Value Plays

Kyshawn George (SF/PF/SG – WAS)

  • DraftKings: $3,700
  • FanDuel: $4,100

If you’re looking for a bring-back option with your Dallas-based lineups, may I offer one sub-$4k player who should play over 30 minutes with nothing to lose? Kyshawn George hasn’t exactly been spectacular in his rookie campaign. But he does offer value tonight as he should be slotted into the starting lineup with a 15 percent usage rate. Dallas is a top-half-paced team in the league, and its defense has ranked subpar in the last 10 games. It’s not the sexiest option, and given Washington’s 13-game losing streak, there isn’t exactly a floor here for George. He’s a bit riskier of an option, but his ceiling is 6X-7X return on your investment.

Jaden McDaniels (SF/PF – MIN)

  • DraftKings: $5,300
  • FanDuel: $5,800

It’s a little cheap to go with an over $5k price for a value option but McDaniels is in a prime spot to explode. If you’re looking for a pure value choice, Mike Conley would be my go-to. For McDaniels, he’s averaged 34 DK points in his last five games and has covered 28 fantasy points in five of his last six outings. No team has allowed more points to opposing small forwards than Atlanta and it’s by a pretty significant margin. McDaniels’ minutes have been at a career-high, playing 36 minutes a night in his last seven matches. The Hawks defense, while improving, is still sub-par, and they have the second-fastest pace in the league. This is a great spend-down option with a high floor simply with the time he will spend on the floor.

Jalen Duren (C – DET)

  • DraftKings: $5,700
  • FanDuel: $6,200

For your spend down center of the night, we have Jalen Duren. I will lead with the obvious that Cleveland is not the best opponent to go against when it comes to fantasy but the price tag has gotten too low for someone who started the year priced over $7k. He’s averaging nearly 30 fantasy points a game on the season, with that number heavily boosted to 37 in his last five games. Tobias Harris is questionable, and if he’s out the frontcourt will become even more thin, upping Duren’s projections. Of course, the likes of Simone Fontecchio or whoever fills Harris’ role would become the pure value option of the night, but if you’re looking to spend up at guard and forward, Duren is your cheap center play.

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