The expression “must-have player” has its limits. Gamers shouldn’t reach multiple rounds ahead of average draft position (ADP) for the following pitchers. Reaching too far for a player saps the excess value they provide as undervalued options.
Instead, the highlighted pitchers should be considered priority targets at or slightly ahead of their fantasy baseball ADP. I’ve included a mix of starting pitchers and relievers. In addition, after featuring one pitcher with a top-50 ADP, the next options were in a few pockets of the draft.
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Fantasy Baseball Must-Draft Pitchers
Chris Sale (SP – ATL) | Pitcher 7/36.2 ADP
Chris Sale’s first season with the Braves was a remarkable success. He won the National League Cy Young Award after thriving in 2024. According to FanGraphs, among qualified pitchers in 2024, Sale was first in ERA (2.38), tied for second in xERA (2.80), first in xFIP (2.64), first in SIERA (2.80), sixth in WHIP (1.01) and first in strikeout rate (32.1%).
There wasn’t anything flukey about Sale’s dominant performance. The southpaw piled up 177.2 innings in 29 starts. Furthermore, Sale’s MLB-best strikeout rate among qualified pitchers was supported by his MLB-high for qualified pitchers called strikes plus whiffs percentage (32.2 CSW%). I’m unsure why he’s not getting more love from drafters.
I’ve ranked him 26th overall (SP4), and the expert consensus ranking (ECR) has him 32nd overall (SP5). Sale is an ideal target in the third round of 12-team mixed-league drafts as an SP1 after picking hitters in the first two rounds.
Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD) | Pitcher 31/89.2 ADP
In my 10 pitchers to avoid piece, I highlighted a pair of Los Angeles pitchers and teased that two would likely be featured in this article. One of the pitchers I teased is Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow’s 2024 season was cut short by a sprained elbow. His elbow has reportedly healed with rest and rehab, and he’s already resumed throwing.
With the injury concern mitigated by him already throwing, it’s easy to dream about Glasnow’s sparkling 2024 season. In 22 starts spanning 134 innings last year, Glasnow recorded the following stats:
- 3.49 ERA
- 2.65 xERA
- 2.68 xFIP
- 2.90 SIERA
- 0.95 WHIP
- 6.7% Walk Rate
- 32.2% Strikeout Rate
- 30.4 CSW%
- 118 Stuff+
- 101 Location+
- 106 Pitching+
Glasnow had elite underlying data and ERA estimators last year. Climbing to approximately 150 innings could be within reach with good health. Frankly, while Glasnow hasn’t piled up innings in his career, neither has Blake Snell, but the former has consistently had superb advanced metrics, and the latter has had inconsistent advanced metrics. Glasnow is much more appealing at his fantasy baseball ADP than Snell. I’d rather have the righty than the lefty outright.
Logan Webb (SP – SF) | Pitcher 33/90.8 ADP
The fantasy baseball rankings and I are much higher on Logan Webb than the drafting community. He’s 72nd overall (P27) in ECR and 67th overall (P22) in my rankings. San Francisco’s ace is a legitimate workhorse. Webb has spun 192.1, 216 and 204.2 innings in the previous three years.
Webb’s 4.31 xERA in 2024 was higher than his 3.47 ERA. Yet, his 3.28 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA were rock-solid. Webb does an excellent job of avoiding walks (5.9% walk rate in 2024), strikes batters out at an adequate rate (20.5% strikeout rate in 2024), induces grounders at an elite rate (56.8% ground-ball rate in 2024) and boasts tasty pitch-modeling numbers.
Last season, Webb had 111 stuff+, 104 location+ and 106 pitching+. Webb is an underrated pitcher by the drafting community and is ideal for pairing with a starter or two with elite rates but with a lower projectable innings output this season.
Tanner Bibee (SP – CLE) | Pitcher 38/100.4 ADP
Tanner Bibee was the P27 in our value-based rankings (VBR) last year. His underlying data mostly validated his surface stats. Bibee overperformed as a rookie, twirling a 2.98 ERA versus a 3.69 ERA, 4.22 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings in 2023. Predictably, his ERA dipped to 3.47 in 31 starts spanning 173.2 innings in 2024, but his 3.78 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA were more supportive of the validity of his 2024 performance.
Last season, Bibee also had a 1.12 WHIP, 6.2% walk rate, 26.3% strikeout rate, 27.4 CSW%, 99 stuff+, 103 location+ and 104 pitching+. In addition, after pitching 173.2 innings in the regular season, he added 15.2 innings in the playoffs.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old righty should be ready to approach 200 innings this year. He’s a high-end to middle-tier SP3 in 12-team mixed leagues being drafted as a high-end SP4. Once again, for a featured pitcher in this piece, the ECR (88th overall/P32) and I (75th overall/P28) are ahead of ADP on Bibee.
Felix Bautista (RP – BAL) | Pitcher 39/101.4 ADP
Relievers are a volatile bunch as it stands, so leaning into the volatility to chase upside makes sense. Felix Bautista missed the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s healthy now and was a fire-breathing monster in Baltimore’s bullpen before surgery.
Bautista put up the following eye-popping stats in 121 appearances and 126.2 innings since debuting in the bigs in 2022:
- 1.85 ERA
- 2.54 xFIP
- 2.26 SIERA
- 0.92 WHIP
- 10.0% Walk Rate
- 40.4% Strikeout Rate
- 32.6 CSW%
- 143 Stuff+
- 95 Location+
- 112 Pitching+
Bautista is a genuine threat to finish as the RP1 if he can recapture his pre-Tommy John surgery form. I’d be ecstatic to have Bautista as my top reliever as early as the end of the seventh round in 12-team mixed leagues, but pushing him closer to his ADP would be even sweeter.
Hunter Brown (SP – HOU) | Pitcher 42/112.2 ADP
Hunter Brown had a wretched beginning to his 2024 season. Through his first six starts, he had a 9.78 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA and 2.22 WHIP in 23 innings.
Brown was outstanding after the calendar flipped to May. In his final 25 appearances (24 starts) in the regular season, Brown had a 2.51 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.7% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate in 147 innings. He also had a 27.3 CSW%, 103 stuff+, 102 location+ and 102 pitching+ in that period.
Brown’s 2.51 ERA from May 1 through the end of last season overstated how well he pitched. Nonetheless, if he pitched to his ERA estimators for the full 2025 season, he’d be a steal at his ADP. I have him ranked 91st overall (P35) and the ECR ranks him 103rd overall (P41).
Roki Sasaki (SP – LAD) | Pitcher 94/117.0 ADP
Roki Sasaki’s pitcher ranking in the headline isn’t a typo. It’s wonky because he doesn’t have an ADP at CBS yet. His ADP ranges from 86 at RTS to 148 at Yahoo.
Sasaki has been a borderline unstoppable force in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) since debuting as a 19-year-old in 2021. Per Baseball-Reference, Sasaki had the following stats in 64 games and 394.2 innings in NPB:
- 2.10 ERA
- 0.89 WHIP
- 5.7% Walk Rate
- 32.7% Strikeout Rate
Sasaki didn’t post his brilliant numbers by using smoke and mirrors. Instead, he has an electrifying arsenal. Sasaki consistently pumps 100-mile-per-hour (MPH) heaters and misses bats with his splitter and slider. Sasaki pitched 111 innings last year, reaching as many as 129.1 in 2022.
Thus, the Zeile consensus projections project Sasaki for approximately 135 innings this season. The likely cap on Sasaki’s innings is the biggest knock on him in his debut MLB season. Still, I have him ranked 96th overall (P40), putting a premium on quality over quantity. Ideally, Sasaki should be drafted on a team with at least one reliable workhorse, such as the aforementioned Webb.
Andres Munoz (RP – SEA) | Pitcher 46/119.8 ADP
Andres Munoz has a multi-year track record of fanning batters at an elite level and spinning clean, high-leverage innings. In 199 career appearances and 197 innings, Munoz has a 2.65 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 2.72 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 52.8% ground-ball rate, 9.6% walk rate and a 34.2% strikeout rate.
Last season, among 22 relievers with at least 20 saves, Munoz was sixth in ERA (2.12), 10th in xERA (2.94), sixth in xFIP (2.98), fifth in ground-ball rate (52.4%), tied for sixth in WHIP (0.96), fifth in strikeout rate (33.2%) and second in called strikes plus whiff percentage (34.3 CSW%). Munoz can anchor a fantasy baseball bullpen, and the ECR and I are approximately nine picks and 23 picks, respectively, ahead of Munoz’s overall ADP.
Lucas Erceg (RP – KC) | Pitcher 56/152.6 ADP
Lucas Erceg began his professional career as a position player in 2016 before pivoting to pitching. The transition wasn’t seamless. Instead, he had more downs than ups in the minors from 2021 through 2023 and a shaky big-league debut for the Athletics in 2023.
The light bulb went on for Erceg last season. He got off to an encouraging start to the year in Oakland’s bullpen before kicking it up a notch for the Royals. Erceg saved 11 games in 23 appearances and 25 innings for Kansas City, with a 2.88 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 2.26 SIERA, 0.84 WHIP, 3.1% walk rate, 32% strikeout rate and 33 CSW%.
Twenty-five innings was a small sample, but his underlying data validated Erceg’s dominance. His 152.6 ADP says drafters don’t fully buy Erceg’s breakout or slept on it, but the pundits aren’t, with an ECR of 131 overall (P50). I’m even more bullish than the ECR. Gamers shouldn’t let Erceg slip past the 12th round. Drafting him in the 11th isn’t outrageous.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL) | Pitcher 61/162.4 ADP
Reynaldo Lopez’s return to starting after a few years of pitching well in relief couldn’t have gone much better. The Braves got more than they bargained for, and despite an injured list (IL) stint in September, he pitched well after he was activated and signed a multi-year deal with the Braves in the offseason.
Lopez’s 1.99 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) spanning 135.2 innings for the Braves in 2024 isn’t sustainable. Still, his 3.94 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA and 1.11 WHIP would be a steal at his ADP. Lopez was also an asset in strikeouts, recording a 27.3% strikeout rate for Atlanta, with a 28.6 CSW%. Drafters shouldn’t allow him to slip out of the 13th round in 12-team mixed-league drafts. Selecting him as early as the 11th round is acceptable, albeit not squeezing every ounce of value out of him relative to his fantasy ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.