Welcome to the Week 18 minefield.
If you’re trying to set a lineup for this week, it’s going to be challenging. A number of teams have their playoff seeding locked in and will be resting starters. And a lot of non-playoff teams are shutting down injured players.
Let’s start with a look at which playoff-bound teams will (or might) bench starters:
- The Chiefs, Bills and Texans are locked into specific playoff seeds in the AFC and have no incentive to play key starters.
- The Eagles and Rams locked into specific playoff seeds in the NFC and have no incentive to play key starters.
- The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth but have a chance to improve their AFC playoff seeding if the Steelers lose on Saturday. But if the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday, the Chargers might rest starters on Sunday.
- The Packers could improve their NFC playoff seeding if they win and the Commanders lose to the Cowboys. The Packers and Commanders play at the same time, and it’s possible the Packers could remove starters if the Commanders have a big lead or big deficit.
There are a lot of moving parts this week, so try to stay on top of player news if you have skin in the game.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
- Cooper Rush
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Drew Lock
- Will Levis
- Kenny Pickett
- Spencer Rattler
- Carson Wentz
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson
In a week full of uncertainty, you can feel fairly confident riding with either of the quarterbacks in the big Sunday night game between the Vikings and Lions, Sam Darnold and Jared Goff. The stakes are enormous, with the winner getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye. Goff has the toucher matchup against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, but Goff has been on an absolute tear, averaging 354 passing yards and 3.5 TD passes over his last four games. But Darnold has been on point, too, with 11 TD passes over his last four starts. And he’ll face a Lions defense that’s easier to throw on than to run on. The Lions have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs. Darnold and Goff are both top-six QB options.
The best streaming option at quarterback this week? I think it’s Joe Flacco, who’ll be making another start in place of the injured Anthony Richardson. The king of air yards, Flacco is always willing to throw aggressively downfield, which means a lot of interceptions but also a lot of passing yardage. Last week’s Flacco performance was pretty typical. He threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, but he also threw two interceptions. The main concern with Flacco when he was starting earlier this season was that all the turnovers might get him benched — and they eventually did. With Richardson hurt, a Flacco benching in Week 18 is unlikely. I have Flacco ranked QB8 in a matchup against the flammable Jacksonville pass defense.
Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 212.5 passing yards in his first two NFL starts, with one TD pass and two interceptions. Those aren’t exciting numbers, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the rocket-armed Penix will put up good numbers Sunday against the Panthers, who were completely fricasseed by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last week. Although Penix didn’t post sexy numbers last week in Atlanta’s overtime loss to Washington, his jaw-dropping arm talent was on full display, especially on the Falcons’ game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Antonio Gibson
- Tyler Allgeier
- Josh Jacobs
- Kimani Vidal
- Raheem Blackshear
- Javonte Williams
- D’Onta Foreman
- Carson Steele
- Ty Johnson
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Braelon Allen
Tier 7
- Mike Boone
- Audric Estime
- Cam Akers
- Khalil Herbert
- Raheem Mostert
- Devin Singletary
- Jeremy McNichols
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- Craig Reynolds
- Roschon Johnson
Blake Corum is squarely in play as a Week 18 option. With the Rams resting key starters, Corum should get an all-you-can-eat buffet of carries against the Seahawks. Rams head coach Sean McVay has said he’s excited to see how the rookie from Michigan fares with a heavy workload. I have Corum slotted as low-end RB1.
Rookie Isaac Guerendo should once again have the San Francisco backfield mostly to himself this week. Guerendo played 61% of the offensive snaps last week against the Lions and finished with nine carries for 34 yards. Guerendo was more productive as a pass catcher than as a runner in that game, catching four passes for 65 yards against the Lions. With Joshua Dobbs drawing the start at quarterback for the 49ers in place of the injured Brock Purdy, Kyle Shanahan might want to lean harder on his running game in San Francisco’s season finale against Arizona.
You’ll have to monitor Tony Pollard’s health status if you’re interested in using him for Week 18. Pollard missed Week 17 with an ankle injury, but he got in a limited practice on Wednesday. If he’s able to go, Pollard could be in for a heavy workload against the unmotivated Texans, who have the No. 4 seed in the AFC locked up. Titans RB Tyjae Spears sustained a concussion last week, and since he also sustained a concussion in mid-November, it seems unlikely that the Titans will let Spears play in a meaningless Week 18 game even if he clears concussion protocol.
Najee Harris has played fewer than half of the Steelers’ offensive snaps in four consecutive games. Over that stretch, he has 44 carries for 183 yards and one touchdown, and three catches for 14 yards. He’s RB32 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. I have Najee ranked RB20 this week only because the zaniness of Week 18 takes so many of the more appealing RB options off the table. It’s hard to feel good about Najee’s outlook this week, even in a reasonably good matchup against the Bengals.
Looking for a sneaky start? How about Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Recently signed by the Saints, Edwards-Helaire had 5-20-0 rushing and 2-10-0 receiving last week against the Raiders. But with Kendre Miller likely to miss Week 18 with a concussion, CEH should have an expanded role in the Saints’ regular-season finale against the Buccaneers. I’m ranking Edwards-Helaire as a midrange RB3.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Tee Higgins
- Courtland Sutton
- Terry McLaurin
- Zay Flowers
- Malik Nabers
- Drake London
- George Pickens
- Ladd McConkey
- Tyreek Hill
- Jordan Addison
- Adam Thielen
- Jameson Williams
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Keenan Allen
- Darnell Mooney
- Josh Downs
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Jayden Reed
- Jauan Jennings
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Marvin Mims
- Alec Pierce
- Jerry Jeudy
- Jaylen Waddle
Tier 5
- Rashod Bateman
- Romeo Doubs
- Rome Odunze
- Quentin Johnston
- DeMario Douglas
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Jalen Coker
Tier 6
- Ricky Pearsall
- Calvin Austin III
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Olamide Zaccheaus
- Brandin Cooks
- Andrei Iosivas
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Diontae Johnson
- Jalen Nailor
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Jordan Addison was WR45 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game with 8.6. Since Week 11, Addison has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game, tying him with Jerry Jeudy for WR8 in that category over that span. Addison has scored seven touchdowns over his last seven games. He’s a must-start in the Vikings’ big Sunday-night showdown with the Lions. Detroit has allowed the most receiving yards, the second-most receptions and the second-most fantasy points to WRs.
Jalen McMillan has turned into an unlikely touchdown machine for the Buccaneers, scoring six TDs in his last four games. McMillan has caught at least four passes in every game during that stretch. This week, he gets a matchup against a Saints defense that doesn’t have much talent at cornerback. My only real concern about McMillan’s Week 18 outlook is that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is only 85 yards away from his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season, and I worry that QB Baker Mayfield might pepper Evans with targets. On the other hand, the Buccaneers can’t afford to be overly concerned with stat-padding when they need to win to ensure a playoff spot. I’m ranking McMillan WR26.
With Joe Flacco getting another start at quarterback for the Colts, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman should both be regarded as midrange WR3s this week. With Flacco starting in Week 17, Pittman had a season-high nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown last week against the Giants. Downs had only three catches for 22 yards, but he had a couple of big games when Flacco was starting earlier this season. Pittman and Downs are both highly playable against a Jaguars pass defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to WRs.
I have Marvin Mims ranked as a low-end WR3 this week, and I’m worried that I have him ranked too low. Mims has been surging late in the season, with 383 receiving yards and four touchdowns over his last six games. Mims has also gotten at least one rushing attempt in seven consecutive games. I’m intrigued by Mims in a matchup against the Chiefs, who’ll probably be laying down this week since they have secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The only reason I’m not higher on Mims is that he still hasn’t reached a 50% snap share in any game this season, topping out at 47% in each of his last two games.
Even if Christian Watson missed another game with a knee injury, leaving a few extra targets for the other Green Bay pass catchers, I’m not that interested in playing any of the Packers’ wide receivers. The Packers face the Bears and their run-funnel defense. The Chicago defense ranks a respectable 17th in DVOA against the pass but 30th in DVOA against the run. Jayden Reed has averaged just 2.4 receptions and 27.0 receiving yards over his last seven games. Romeo Doubs hasn’t produced more than 58 receiving yards in a game since Oct. 27. Dontayvion Wicks hasn’t hit 50 receiving yards in a game since September. Stay away from this group if you can.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
- Noah Gray
- Payne Durham
- Cole Kmet
- Austin Hooper
- Noah Fant
- Foster Moreau
- Tyler Conklin
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
- Stone Smartt
George Kittle leads all tight ends in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, edging Raiders rookie Brock Bowers by just 0.2 points. But I only have Kittle ranked TE7 this week. As marvelous as Kittle is, we should probably downgrade our expectations for him with the 49ers starting Joshua Dobbs at quarterback in place of the injured Brock Purdy. Dobbs has averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt over his five-year career.
Zach Ertz has quietly scored five touchdowns over his last six games. He caught 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards last week against the Falcons, and Ertz seems to have become a favorite third-down target for rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Play Ertz with confidence against the Cowboys, against whom Ertz had six catches for 38 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving Day.
Can we trust Mike Gesicki, who erupted for a 10-catch, 86-yard game against the Broncos last week? On one hand, the matchup against the Steelers isn’t bad. Pittsburgh has yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to TEs, and Gesicki had five catches for 53 yards against the Steelers in Week 13. On the other hand, WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins command a huge percentage of targets in the Cincinnati passing game, and Gesicki has averaged only 37.3 yards per game this season. I’m ranking Gesicki TE13.
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